Jonathan_S wrote:The SLN, at combat range, thought they were able to start differentiating the Lorelies from the cruisers they'd already been tracking, out of the post-jamming quintupled targets, after several seconds; a process .
But just because they were more confident doesn't mean they were right -- nor do we know how high their confidence levels were.
Also, if they hadn't already had a baseline on those specific cruisers it probably would have been harder to differentiate them from the decoys. But generally the decoys were designed primarily to fool missiles in terminal acquisition, not full up warships. Still, without an existing baseline signature for each real cruiser in the system, and without even real cruisers to try to distinguish against the decoys, it'd probably be far harder to determine that you were seeing decoys rather than real cruisers.
But we don't know how long they could have kept powering the illusion. At that battle the League ships weren't finding the cruisers because the Lorelies ran out of power; and I seem to recall Honor using them against Raging Justice and got the impression those were in operation far longer than just a few seconds.
I don't remember Loreleis against Raging Justice. Maybe my memory is faulty here. I do remember freighters pretending to be SDs deeper into the system, though.
However, your pointing out of Hypatia actually reminded me that the Loreleis were powered up for a significant amount of time. You're right that after the Dazzlers the numbers quintupled.... from 9. The SLN task force thought all along that TG 110.1 was 9 cruisers (1 BC + 8 CA), but in reality they were only 5. There's a passage where RFC explains Kotouč's thinking that the SLN wouldn't have believed a higher number and would have thus looked for decoys, so 9 was a sweet spot that allowed the real ships to have a chance at not being targeted in the initial selection. It would also confuse the SLN tac sections when 35 more Loreleis came alive: if they could now tell that there were 40, they'd be scratching their heads trying to find those other 4 cruisers that had never been there.
I was going about with the information from the Battle of Ajay-Prime, which is in the same book, and we have Commodore Martin Lessem thinking that the Loreleis can't hope to match the emissions of a full heavy cruiser, but can match those of one attempting to be stealthy.
Still, trying to use them to explain away a sting of pre-deployed pods seems like it's going to fall apart shortly after the enemy returns fire. Those "cruisers" can't simply disappear, nor can they outrun the return fire -- but their illusion will collapse when they seem to sit there fat, dumb, and happy to be blown apart by Cataphracts without firing a single CM or PDLC in defense.
True, but if you've managed to force a salvo towards those decoys -- particularly if that's an alpha strike -- you should consider that a win. Forcing the enemy to spend their best shot away from you is good tactics.
I now think this is plausible, or at least was in the war against the SL. Against Haven or when the tech gap shrinks, probably not.