Attacking Darius:

penny wrote:If all else were equal Phillies, I'd certainly agree. Enter the malignant Alignment and the Frankenstein syndrome. Even for straight numerics, if the MA can harness the power of a savant - who may be able to see in the "quantum realm" ... where certain tricks can yield results sooner, like humans learn to do to some degree with experience - then I disagree.

That won't happen because it's the plot of The Quantum Magician by Derek Künsken. Really good book series, BTW. I highly recommend.

There are two other human sub-species in that series that show how genetic engineering can go beyond bounds. The Mongrels were modified to survive in extreme conditions and that's really extreme, but understandable and even rationalisable. But the Puppets... well, you'll have to read the books.

tlb wrote:No, they did not know THAT. Houdini was planned for what they knew, but they could never know about a wormhole from Manticore to the Talbott Quarter nor about spies finding a disaffected member of the Onion.

Then there are the things that they should have known, but ignored: specifically the advancements in military power that made the SLN ineffectual.

You can also argue that they couldn't have known that because both the Havenite and the Alliance OpSec was pretty tight. We don't know for sure they had all the data.

But I agree with the main point: even when they had sufficient data, they made mistakes.

PS: You could say that everything that went wrong with their plan was "plot driven"; but they still thought that they could make the plan work, no matter what went wrong.

Another example of that is insisting on destablising the Talbott Sector/Quadrant, with three different plans: Monica, then Split / Montana, then New Tuscany / Bing / Crandall. There's a passage of them discussing the fact that they had prepositioned Crandall and Filareta at huge cost, so this made them want to use those assets rather than write them off and pull their horns in.

There's no going around the fact that RFC wrote them to be fallible. We could argue that they shouldn't have made those mistakes if they're true Alphas, but that moving the goalpost. That's changing what an Alpha is to something no one is. Even the Alphas and the Inner Onion in the HV are fallible people who make mistakes, and so spake RFC.

And I've argued that their mistake ratio appears to be higher than the GA leadership.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:A Ghost is not a Shark and a Shark is not a Ghost. Why send a Shark to do a Ghost's job? If a Shark is detected, that is not the time to say, "We should've brought the Ghost, because they barely detected the Shark."

I'm arguing that those two are not the only two options.

It's the only two we can play with, but RFC's hands are not tied like ours.

That is most probably correct. There most likely are many different possible sizes of a spider-driven ship inbetween Ghosts and LDs, according to the MA's needs; like the tonnage creep of the Manty's big-assed BBs.

But I am arguing that a Ghost is the smallest possible spider-driven ship. The MA would certainly have built the smallest possible stealth ship to be deployed as a scout in the beginning. So why wouldn't the stealthiest naval unit not be deployed as part of the mission? Especially since losing a Ghost won't hurt as much.

If every other ship is equal to a V-16, V-24... you don't want to get all the way to the Haven sector and realize - per your stealth needs - you coulda had a V8.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

tlb wrote:No, they did not know THAT. Houdini was planned for what they knew, but they could never know about a wormhole from Manticore to the Talbott Quarter nor about spies finding a disaffected member of the Onion.

Then there are the things that they should have known, but ignored: specifically the advancements in military power that made the SLN ineffectual.

You can also argue that they couldn't have known that because both the Havenite and the Alliance OpSec was pretty tight. We don't know for sure they had all the data.

But I agree with the main point: even when they had sufficient data, they made mistakes.

PS: You could say that everything that went wrong with their plan was "plot driven"; but they still thought that they could make the plan work, no matter what went wrong.

Another example of that is insisting on destablising the Talbott Sector/Quadrant, with three different plans: Monica, then Split / Montana, then New Tuscany / Bing / Crandall. There's a passage of them discussing the fact that they had prepositioned Crandall and Filareta at huge cost, so this made them want to use those assets rather than write them off and pull their horns in.

There's no going around the fact that RFC wrote them to be fallible. We could argue that they shouldn't have made those mistakes if they're true Alphas, but that moving the goalpost. That's changing what an Alpha is to something no one is. Even the Alphas and the Inner Onion in the HV are fallible people who make mistakes, and so spake RFC.

And I've argued that their mistake ratio appears to be higher than the GA leadership.

Again, I do not think your world view regarding the MA in this matter is correct. You have to apply more of a galactic view to the MA as far as measuring their overall success.

The MA's leadership's mistakes are made while playing with huge building blocks of ceramecrete. The GA leadership - even Sir Thomas Caparelli who I admired - only played with Legos.

Again, I think the MA's mistakes were abstract mistakes, i.e., mistakes that would fall under the umbrella as correctable. For instance, their original plan wasn't so much to pit Haven against the SL - it was about getting the two most powerful navies to destroy each other; doing their dirty work for them. The fact that a more powerful navy than Haven's appeared on the scene in the interim, only meant that the name of the specific pawn to use had changed. The plan's essential design never changed. Just a few tweaks here and there. I recall a conversation with one of the Detweilers with a female Alpha regarding whether she allowed for the possibility of those particular variables changing? Because the variables did change. She had an excuse that there was no way to predict the intercession of Cachat and Zilwicki working together, IINM and suffering from scene bleed. And he agreed. And he was correct to agree.

An Alpha's plan will always most likely work, if all else remains equal, the lord's willing and the creek don't rise. And if that Demon Murphy doesn't get bored.

An Alpha can't account for the Demon in the details. As can no one. No more than an Alpha can account for god in the details. The author.

But an Alpha can prepare contingency plans; like Houdini, Galton, and even sacrificing daddy.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

tlb wrote:No, they did not know THAT. Houdini was planned for what they knew, but they could never know about a wormhole from Manticore to the Talbott Quarter nor about spies finding a disaffected member of the Onion.

Then there are the things that they should have known, but ignored: specifically the advancements in military power that made the SLN ineffectual.

You can also argue that they couldn't have known that because both the Havenite and the Alliance OpSec was pretty tight. We don't know for sure they had all the data.

But I agree with the main point: even when they had sufficient data, they made mistakes.

PS: You could say that everything that went wrong with their plan was "plot driven"; but they still thought that they could make the plan work, no matter what went wrong.

Another example of that is insisting on destablising the Talbott Sector/Quadrant, with three different plans: Monica, then Split / Montana, then New Tuscany / Bing / Crandall. There's a passage of them discussing the fact that they had prepositioned Crandall and Filareta at huge cost, so this made them want to use those assets rather than write them off and pull their horns in.

There's no going around the fact that RFC wrote them to be fallible. We could argue that they shouldn't have made those mistakes if they're true Alphas, but that moving the goalpost. That's changing what an Alpha is to something no one is. Even the Alphas and the Inner Onion in the HV are fallible people who make mistakes, and so spake RFC.

And I've argued that their mistake ratio appears to be higher than the GA leadership.

But it might have or might later bear fruit yet. Look what happened to the SLN. They are defeated and sidelined. And, if the timeline doesn't move and the MA attacks, the SLN will be caught all huddled up in the Sol system - because they are grounded - waiting for a visit by a couple of LDs. The arrogant SLN still don't believe in a hidden entity. So if kzt's argument that the GA is not taking the threat seriously, then the fact that the SLN is grounded and huddled around Sol with wedges down, most of the officers groundside, and not expecting any more attacks, then the LDs can have a field day with the Sol system right now.

penny wrote:But it might have or might later bear fruit yet. Look what happened to the SLN. They are defeated and sidelined. And, if the timeline doesn't move and the MA attacks, the SLN will be caught all huddled up in the Sol system - because they are grounded - waiting for a visit by a couple of LDs. The arrogant SLN still don't believe in a hidden entity. So if kzt's argument that the GA is not taking the threat seriously, then the fact that the SLN is grounded and huddled around Sol with wedges down, most of the officers groundside, and not expecting any more attacks, then the LDs can have a field day with the Sol system right now.

1. The Solarian Navy is not bottled up in the Sol system. The Grand Alliance forbade them from leaving League space and the League is still made up of many more worlds than just Earth. Recently a Solarian fleet was given permission to operate against slavers outside of the confinement zone.

2. With the people dropping dead upon arrest, the Solarian League does now believe in the "hidden entity".

3. The Solarian Navy knows most of their capital ships are worthless, so why bother turning them to scrape? That was their likely destination anyway.

penny wrote:That is most probably correct. There most likely are many different possible sizes of a spider-driven ship inbetween Ghosts and LDs, according to the MA's needs; like the tonnage creep of the Manty's big-assed BBs.

But I am arguing that a Ghost is the smallest possible spider-driven ship. The MA would certainly have built the smallest possible stealth ship to be deployed as a scout in the beginning. So why wouldn't the stealthiest naval unit not be deployed as part of the mission? Especially since losing a Ghost won't hurt as much.

If every other ship is equal to a V-16, V-24... you don't want to get all the way to the Haven sector and realize - per your stealth needs - you coulda had a V8.

Because the mission profile may not call for it. There's a cost to deploy each ship, even for a lopsided economy like Darius'. No one appears to have reached Post-Scarcity in the HV, and in particular post scarcity of people. Those ships would be crewed by Alphas and Betas and, though they do grow in tubes (sometimes), there isn't an infinite supply of them and the time to train each one is not zero.

There's also cost of opportunity: every ship you bring into this mission is a ship that didn't get deployed elsewhere. Those scouts may be needed at other places.

So you don't bring every ship you have "just in case." You bring them if you think you're going to need them (and "so we can sacrifice them" is not a good reason) and resource allocations permit so.

Finally, there's the risk of detection: for each ship you do bring, the risk increases. I don't know if it's linear, sub-linear or above that; it'll also depend on how those ships are deployed, whether in a group formation or apart. A single, accidental detection blows the plan out of the water, the force composition is probably going to always be the minimum necessary to get the job done.

penny wrote:Again, I do not think your world view regarding the MA in this matter is correct. You have to apply more of a galactic view to the MA as far as measuring their overall success.

The MA's leadership's mistakes are made while playing with huge building blocks of ceramecrete. The GA leadership - even Sir Thomas Caparelli who I admired - only played with Legos.

That's a fair assessment: they were trying to move far more pieces, most of which they didn't officially control, so it was far more difficult and they had to account for far more variation. So their mistake ratio being overall higher is to be expected.

That's still a non-zero mistake ratio. There's no way they are infallible, especially at that scale. And they continue to be fallible and will have especially egregious failings in the coming books that will be their downfall.

I'd also like to point out the hubris in thinking they could succeed.

Again, I think the MA's mistakes were abstract mistakes, i.e., mistakes that would fall under the umbrella as correctable. For instance, their original plan wasn't so much to pit Haven against the SL - it was about getting the two most powerful navies to destroy each other; doing their dirty work for them. The fact that a more powerful navy than Haven's appeared on the scene in the interim, only meant that the name of the specific pawn to use had changed. The plan's essential design never changed.

And yet they tried to insist on Haven.

Plus, their mistake was not to realise that this essential design was now no longer possible. The League was not in the league of Manticore or Haven, much less both. So they made a mistake in not realising this, and they compounded the mistake in insisting on a flawed strategy. To make it even worse, the execution of said strategy was also botched; the recovery attempts by supplying Cataphracts to the SLN directly led to the discovery of Galton.

And they let their emotional control lapse, when they launched Operation Fabius and the Beowulf Strike. There was no strategic reason to do this, but led to everyone and their aunt concluding "The Other Guys" existed.

We'll also see that the launch of the Renaissance Factor was ill-timed. Another mistake.

Just a few tweaks here and there. I recall a conversation with one of the Detweilers with a female Alpha regarding whether she allowed for the possibility of those particular variables changing? Because the variables did change. She had an excuse that there was no way to predict the intercession of Cachat and Zilwicki working together, IINM and suffering from scene bleed. And he agreed. And he was correct to agree.

That's an example of the echo chamber. They justified their mistakes to themselves and moved on.

An Alpha's plan will always most likely work, if all else remains equal, the lord's willing and the creek don't rise. And if that Demon Murphy doesn't get bored.

An Alpha can't account for the Demon in the details. As can no one. No more than an Alpha can account for god in the details. The author.

I agree as stated, but I find that it's an incomplete reflection of reality.

The problem is that those Alphas aren't realising that their plan did rely on all else being equal and Murphy wouldn't intervene; that they failed to realise that the Plan's predications are no longer valid after Murphy intervened.

Maybe the capture of Mesa and the fall of Galton are the best things that could have happened to the Alignment, forcing them to stop and reassess everything. They ought to realise that, as Benjamin put it, "the Detweiler Plan is well and truly off the rails" and start over. They should reformulate the plan on the new situation of the Galaxy, with the "Benign Alignment" in the public on Mesa doing the good work. They should get behind that and push.

What will they do? They will insist on correcting back to their original Plan. They will try to infiltrate the new organisation (what did they call themselves again?). They will try and cause mayhem in the Galaxy again and try and take over.

Mistakes on top of mistakes.

penny wrote:An Alpha's plan will always most likely work, if all else remains equal, the lord's willing and the creek don't rise. And if that Demon Murphy doesn't get bored.

An Alpha can't account for the Demon in the details. As can no one. No more than an Alpha can account for god in the details. The author.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I agree as stated, but I find that it's an incomplete reflection of reality.

The problem is that those Alphas aren't realising that their plan did rely on all else being equal and Murphy wouldn't intervene; that they failed to realise that the Plan's predications are no longer valid after Murphy intervened.

Maybe the capture of Mesa and the fall of Galton are the best things that could have happened to the Alignment, forcing them to stop and reassess everything. They ought to realise that, as Benjamin put it, "the Detweiler Plan is well and truly off the rails" and start over. They should reformulate the plan on the new situation of the Galaxy, with the "Benign Alignment" in the public on Mesa doing the good work. They should get behind that and push.

What will they do? They will insist on correcting back to their original Plan. They will try to infiltrate the new organisation (what did they call themselves again?). They will try and cause mayhem in the Galaxy again and try and take over.

Mistakes on top of mistakes.

The absolute worst "plot driven" thing that the author did to the Malign was to saddle them with a six hundred year old plan that never had a chance to account for all the things that could go wrong.

I agree that joining the Benign Alignment would be the smartest thing that they could, but they will not do it. As you say, they will keep slapping patches on the plan that is riddled with holes; because they need to justify their belief that only they are fit to rule humanity.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:An Alpha's plan will always most likely work, if all else remains equal, the lord's willing and the creek don't rise. And if that Demon Murphy doesn't get bored.

An Alpha can't account for the Demon in the details. As can no one. No more than an Alpha can account for god in the details. The author.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I agree as stated, but I find that it's an incomplete reflection of reality.

The problem is that those Alphas aren't realising that their plan did rely on all else being equal and Murphy wouldn't intervene; that they failed to realise that the Plan's predications are no longer valid after Murphy intervened.

Maybe the capture of Mesa and the fall of Galton are the best things that could have happened to the Alignment, forcing them to stop and reassess everything. They ought to realise that, as Benjamin put it, "the Detweiler Plan is well and truly off the rails" and start over. They should reformulate the plan on the new situation of the Galaxy, with the "Benign Alignment" in the public on Mesa doing the good work. They should get behind that and push.

What will they do? They will insist on correcting back to their original Plan. They will try to infiltrate the new organisation (what did they call themselves again?). They will try and cause mayhem in the Galaxy again and try and take over.

Mistakes on top of mistakes.

The absolute worst "plot driven" thing that the author did to the Malign was to saddle them with a six hundred year old plan that never had a chance to account for all the things that could go wrong.

I agree that joining the Benign Alignment would be the smartest thing that they could, but they will not do it. As you say, they will keep slapping patches on the plan that is riddled with holes; because they need to justify their belief that only they are fit to rule humanity.

Topically, it sounds like a good idea. Really. But on second thought I am not so sure. Galton might turn out to be too much of a security risk for them now. I think the GA might have gotten a little too many brownie points with Galton, in the form of Honor's last act of kindness. There is no way everybody at Galton is not aware of the act of human kindness Honor showed them. Which makes one wonder what kind of indoctrination Galton endured. Surely Galton can see that the Boogeyman is not the GA. And if Honor's reputation preceded her as it did at Hades, Galton knows Harrington is worthy of the rumors.

I just don't think there is any putting Galton back in the box.