What's the chance of a Streek Drive Super Dreadnought?

Jonathan_S wrote:I'd agree that combat ability is going to be the deciding factor. But Keep in mind that that includes serviceability, reliability, and danger from use; not just strategic mobility and weapons / ammo count.

Of course. I consider that as part of the "combat ability", as for example a major increase in needed maintenance or reduced reliability will likely impact combat ability.

Weird Harold wrote:Actually, the bottom line is whether the politicians can be convinced to pay for it and whether it is peacetime or war time.

Strategic mobility is nice, but it has been sacrificed to capability and/or budget considerations many times in the real world and will continue to be sacrificed as long as mankind has to get budgets approved by politicians.

Ehm, this is the nation that built just how many SDs during the time the main series of books span, not to mention all the SDs that never got finished, or the "python lump" and so on.

Do you seriously think that anything less than an extreme jump in pricetag will cause it not to be built? IF it makes good sense tactically.

Please!

Personally i very much doubt that the cost will increase more than 10-20% of the SD total, because the tonnage replaces other complex parts that are also pricey.

<5-10% feels more likely.
And Manticore politicians are not going to even blink at that.
Hello, do we have even the slightest mention of anyone objecting to the Keyhole platforms due to costs?
Because those are very expensive compared to their tonnage(probably much MORE so than hyper generators), yet they seem to have been added without even a seconds delay.

Tenshinai wrote:Ehm, this is the nation that built just how many SDs during the time the main series of books span, not to mention all the SDs that never got finished, or the "python lump" and so on.

Do you seriously think that anything less than an extreme jump in pricetag will cause it not to be built? IF it makes good sense tactically.

This is also the nation that had extended public debates over the naval budget "on-screen" during the High Ridge administration and was at war with Haven during most of the rest of the series.

I agree that if it makes good tactical sense -- like the improved compensators -- there won't be much of a fuss over the cost. However, the Streak Drive has no tactical application; the Streak Drive enhances strategic mobility only, and strategic mobility has a much lower budget priority than tactical improvements.

Tenshinai wrote:Personally i very much doubt that the cost will increase more than 10-20% of the SD total, because the tonnage replaces other complex parts that are also pricey.

Manticore is in the process of rebuilding its orbital infrastructure, and fighting a war that has entirely different strategic and tactical scope. The have more than enough SDs with sufficient technological superiority that they don't need more nearly as much as they need more cruisers and destroyers for commerce protection and commerce raiding.

10%-20% of the cost of an SD will go a long way towards building a destroyer or cruiser -- which can also make better use of streak drives when not tied down to a convoy.

Retrofitting Streak Drives to existing SDs will likely be an engineering nightmare as well as more expensive than incorporation in new builds, and I don't expect to see a lot of new-build SDs since Manticore needs more light and medium units to fight a "trade war" with the Solarian League.

Weird Harold wrote:

Tenshinai wrote:Personally i very much doubt that the cost will increase more than 10-20% of the SD total, because the tonnage replaces other complex parts that are also pricey.

Manticore is in the process of rebuilding its orbital infrastructure, and fighting a war that has entirely different strategic and tactical scope. The have more than enough SDs with sufficient technological superiority that they don't need more nearly as much as they need more cruisers and destroyers for commerce protection and commerce raiding.

10%-20% of the cost of an SD will go a long way towards building a destroyer or cruiser -- which can also make better use of streak drives when not tied down to a convoy.

Retrofitting Streak Drives to existing SDs will likely be an engineering nightmare as well as more expensive than incorporation in new builds, and I don't expect to see a lot of new-build SDs since Manticore needs more light and medium units to fight a "trade war" with the Solarian League.

I agree with Tenshinai that the increase in costs for the streak drive is likely to be under 5%. The big cost is likely to be in the initial design and beta test of the new drive, once that is done, unless it greatly increases operating expenses (maintenance etc) it will be in all new builds after beta testing is complete. I feel retrofitting onto any older ships to be unlikely as this, even after Manticore does it's miniaturization magic, is likely to be a much larger piece of hardware, than the prior installation.

Castenea wrote:I feel retrofitting onto any older ships to be unlikely as this, even after Manticore does it's miniaturization magic, is likely to be a much larger piece of hardware, than the prior installation.

That's essentially my point: The Streak Drives aren't going to be retrofitted to SDs and Manticore isn't going to be building (many) new SDs because they need smaller commerce protection/raider hulls more than they need more SDs.

Eventually, Streak Drives will become the new milspec HG across the board, but SDs will be the last class to get them -- because SDs gain the least from faster hyper-speeds.

Weird Harold wrote:That's essentially my point: The Streak Drives aren't going to be retrofitted to SDs and Manticore isn't going to be building (many) new SDs because they need smaller commerce protection/raider hulls more than they need more SDs.

Eventually, Streak Drives will become the new milspec HG across the board, but SDs will be the last class to get them -- because SDs gain the least from faster hyper-speeds.

I can see the logic that says the GA has enough SDs. However we've already seen "on screen" plans to build new Apollo capable SD(P)s combining input from Bolthole, Beowulf, and Manticore.

And politically "freezing" SD construction now seem unpalatable to the other members of the Grand Alliance. It leaves Haven very much a 3rd tier military behind Manticore, Grayson, and even the Andies (who aren't even in the GA) -- because all of them have at least some Keyhole II carrying SD(P)s.
And when Beowulf joins they'll be 4th tier as they've no pod layers at all.

So I assume that even if the new SD(P)s aren't likely to be needed soon againt the SLN or the MAlign, that politics would dictate a non-trival build level to allow all members to phase out their older wallers for ones capable of FTL fire control.

Of course, if you tote up the numbers of missiles that can be fired by a modern 8.5MT, traditionally arranged, missile heavy SD, with off-bore launching on all tubes (incl any hammerhead tubes), stacked broadsides, and Invictus level fire control, it can be argued that you don't need SD(P)'s and their own particular set of vulnerabilities any longer.

You could even possibly have a hybrid, with traditional tube arrangement, but also capable of launching, say, a two pod spread from inclined top hatches to beef up the early broadsides, or for other special purposes.

dreamrider

Jonathan_S wrote:So I assume that even if the new SD(P)s aren't likely to be needed soon against the SLN or the MAlign, that politics would dictate a non-trivial build level to allow all members to phase out their older wallers for ones capable of FTL fire control.

If Manticore wasn't in the process of rebuilding their industry and reducing their income by recalling the Merchant Marine, I'd agree with you.

For however long their budget crunch lasts, they're going to concentrate on the ships they need now instead of ships they will need someday.

Weird Harold wrote:

Tenshinai wrote:Ehm, this is the nation that built just how many SDs during the time the main series of books span, not to mention all the SDs that never got finished, or the "python lump" and so on.

Do you seriously think that anything less than an extreme jump in pricetag will cause it not to be built? IF it makes good sense tactically.

This is also the nation that had extended public debates over the naval budget "on-screen" during the High Ridge administration and was at war with Haven during most of the rest of the series.

I agree that if it makes good tactical sense -- like the improved compensators -- there won't be much of a fuss over the cost. However, the Streak Drive has no tactical application; the Streak Drive enhances strategic mobility only, and strategic mobility has a much lower budget priority than tactical improvements.

One point to consider is how high strategic mobility ranks as a priority for star nations in the Honorverse.

In real life, David has told us here (wearing his naval historian hat) how the United States Navy stuck with an older, less tactically capable propulsion technology (reciprocating steam engines with forced lubrication, IIRC) for another generation of warships while every other navy was moving to the newer more tactically capable steam turbine because the need for strategic range outweighed tactical mobility considerations.

Given how the Star Kingdom is now the Star Empire, with not every territory directly or quickly accessible via the Junction (the Silesian protectorates, and the Talbott Quadrant come to mind, as well as the need to picket the systems of minor members of the Manticore-now Grand-Alliance), I would expect that once the Star Empire develops the streak drive and irons out the bugs, it will incorporate it into all its new design and/or build hyper-capable combatants, from SDPs on down. Also the Solarian League extends over vast distances, and the wormhole network doesn't go everywhere that the RMN (and GA) need to be. Just as the RMN control of the wormhole network extends its reach, and places the RMN inside the decision loop of the SLN, so to would having the streak drive while the SLN doesn't have it.

The Republic of Haven and the Anderman Empire, as multi-system polities, have pretty much the same needs as the Star Empire now faces.

Beowulf, Grayson and the other minor members don't have the strategic requirements in time of peace. However, Grayson and the other minor members are at war. If events continue along their current course in the Solarian League, I would expect Beowulf to shortly succeed and be at war with the League. Also, the Republic of Haven will be building most of the SDP hulls, so it makes sense from the Republic's point of view to incorporate the streak drive into new construction.

As for streak drive refits (SDs on down), if it is feasible (see the Anduril SD class in House of Steel for an example of an SD that was so well armored that it was impractical to upgrade), depending on how much volume and mass the Star Empire's version of the streak drive takes up, I expect that it will be done once volume production is ahead of new build requirements. As an Honorverse example, consider how the RMN deployed the new inertial compensators. It was installed in new build construction, as well as refitted to existing construction on an ad-hoc basis as existing units went to the yards for repair and refit. This led to an in-universe conversation with William Alexander, Thomas Caparelli, and White Haven in chapter 20 or Echoes of Honor where the non-homogenous nature of the Star Kingdom was mentioned as a significant reason (although not the primary reason) why White Haven would be not getting RMN units assigned to 8th Fleet for at least another 2 months. Here's the paragraph:

Echoes of Honor, Chapter 20 wrote:"A quarter," Caparelli confirmed. "And if we could, I'd have made it thirty percent. We worked the Fleet too hard to get to where we are now, My Lord. We've got to take the battle fleet in hand--and not just for routine repairs, either. We've been refitting the new systems and weapons and compensators on an ad hoc basis since the war started, but over half our wall of battle units are at least two years behind the technology curve. That's seriously hurting our ability to make full use of the new hardware, especially the compensators, since our squadrons are no longer homogenous. It doesn't do us a lot of good to have three ships in a squadron capable of accelerating at five hundred and eighty gravities if the other five can only pull five-ten! We've got to get all the current upgrades into a higher percentage of the total wall."

Italics are the author's.

Replace the compensators with the streak drive and the sentence before the last would be something like:

It doesn't help if only 40% ships in a fleet (or task force, or task group) can get to a system twice as fast using the iota or kappa hyper bands if the other 60% are restricted to the theta band.

Also, other questions to ask are: Can you afford (existentially, as well as financially) to have your navy be second-best in technologies you know about, when your opponent has developed better ones? If he has developed better technologies you know about, what about the possibility of better technologies you don't know about?

Both of these questions have been faced by first the PRH and later the RHN with the RMN as their opponent. They didn't get the answer quite right, although they came close*.

The RMN also had to answer the question of: Can you afford to have your navy be only just as good in technologies you know about, forgoing any advances, when your opponent outnumbers you? The RMN first under King Roger and then under Queen Elizabeth would prefer to answer the question with a resounding NO. The one time the government answered even with a partial yes, it turned out disastrously for the RMN. (See the Janaceck Admiralty under the High Ridge government.)

* "Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and tactical nuclear weapons." Major LaFollet to Honor.

Vince wrote:... As an Honorverse example, consider how the RMN deployed the new inertial compensators. It was installed in new build construction, as well as refitted to existing construction on an ad-hoc basis as existing units went to the yards for repair and refit. This led to an in-universe conversation with William Alexander, Thomas Caparelli, and White Haven in chapter 20 or Echoes of Honor where the non-homogenous nature of the Star Kingdom was mentioned as a significant reason (although not the primary reason) why White Haven would be not getting RMN units assigned to 8th Fleet for at least another 2 months. ...

The improved compensator provides a tactical advantage -- higher acceleration in N-Space during combat. The Streak Drive doesn't provide an appreciable tactical advantage, so it isn't quite comparable.

Vince wrote:One point to consider is how high strategic mobility ranks as a priority for star nations in the Honorverse.

That is really the essential question: "How important is Strategic Mobility?" The answer will be different for different classes of ships as well as for different star nations.

Manticore's historical preference has been for Battle Cruisers as its most numerous capital ships. In the current situation -- effectively a "trade war" with the Solarian League -- Manticoran Battle Cruisers are a match for any SLN ship on at least a hull for hull basis. CLACs also play a major role in Manticore's current situation.

Streak Drives in SDs would definitely be nice-to-have, but the strategic advantage for SDs aren't enough to move them to the head of the line. At least I hope Manticore isn't going to fall into the trap of "fighting the last war" when it comes to planning the ship mix needed to destroy the Solarian League.

Vince wrote:In real life, David has told us here (wearing his naval historian hat) how the United States Navy stuck with an older, less tactically capable propulsion technology (reciprocating steam engines with forced lubrication, IIRC) for another generation of warships while every other navy was moving to the newer more tactically capable steam turbine because the need for strategic range outweighed tactical mobility considerations.

I think politics, budget, and isolationism had as much to do with those kinds of choices than strategic range considerations. Once the US went to war in the Pacific, they launched some of the fastest (super dreadnaught) Battleships ever built -- with all the technological bells and whistles they could be fitted with.

Vince wrote:Also, other questions to ask are: Can you afford (existentially, as well as financially) to have your navy be second-best in technologies you know about, when your opponent has developed better ones? If he has developed better technologies you know about, what about the possibility of better technologies you don't know about?

A lot depends on what advantage you're giving up or disadvantage you're accepting.

IMHO, you're not giving up a great deal by not getting to a major battle slower than your opponent -- especially when that opponent can't stand against you in N-Space. Even more so if you're not giving up anything in the lighter ship classes you need to find and monitor said opponent. Or when those lighter ships have the capability to "fill in" for your "heavies" -- If you can kill a Task Force of SDs with Heavy Cruisers and a couple of ammo ships...

Vince wrote:... As an Honorverse example, consider how the RMN deployed the new inertial compensators. It was installed in new build construction, as well as refitted to existing construction on an ad-hoc basis as existing units went to the yards for repair and refit. This led to an in-universe conversation with William Alexander, Thomas Caparelli, and White Haven in chapter 20 or Echoes of Honor where the non-homogenous nature of the Star Kingdom was mentioned as a significant reason (although not the primary reason) why White Haven would be not getting RMN units assigned to 8th Fleet for at least another 2 months. ...

Weird Harold wrote:The improved compensator provides a tactical advantage -- higher acceleration in N-Space during combat. The Streak Drive doesn't provide an appreciable tactical advantage, so it isn't quite comparable.

Vince wrote:One point to consider is how high strategic mobility ranks as a priority for star nations in the Honorverse.

Weird Harold wrote:That is really the essential question: "How important is Strategic Mobility?" The answer will be different for different classes of ships as well as for different star nations.

Manticore's historical preference has been for Battle Cruisers as its most numerous capital ships. In the current situation -- effectively a "trade war" with the Solarian League -- Manticoran Battle Cruisers are a match for any SLN ship on at least a hull for hull basis. CLACs also play a major role in Manticore's current situation.

Streak Drives in SDs would definitely be nice-to-have, but the strategic advantage for SDs aren't enough to move them to the head of the line. At least I hope Manticore isn't going to fall into the trap of "fighting the last war" when it comes to planning the ship mix needed to destroy the Solarian League.

The current situation is ALWAYS subject to change. And one of the responsibilities of naval planning is to try and predict both the force mix and the individual units needed in the future, not just what is needed now, if for no other reason than the time it takes to design, build, develop new doctrine for (if existing doctrine does not cover a new design) and work-up (train your personnel and check to see if the hardware works correctly) units.

Starting in King Roger's reign, the priority shifted to building wallers, not commerce protection/raiding units, because as King Roger pointed out, commerce protection was only the fourth mission priority of the RMN, and had received the lion's share of the RMN's budget prior to reallocating resources back to mission priorities one through three.

Also you are missing a very important point. Manticore is no longer a single system polity, but is now a far-flung, multi-system polity, with all the responsibilities associated with such. The need for strategic mobility increases dramatically when you move from a navy responsible for only a single system to one that is responsible for multiple star systems across vast distances.

One thing that I don't understand is why wouldn't you mount streak drives on your SDs or SDPs with the advantage for strategic mobility, especially with now that the Star Kingdom is now the Star Empire? Or are you advocating the use of merchant grade hyper generators for use in SDs & SDPs?

Vince wrote:In real life, David has told us here (wearing his naval historian hat) how the United States Navy stuck with an older, less tactically capable propulsion technology (reciprocating steam engines with forced lubrication, IIRC) for another generation of warships while every other navy was moving to the newer more tactically capable steam turbine because the need for strategic range outweighed tactical mobility considerations.

Weird Harold wrote:I think politics, budget, and isolationism had as much to do with those kinds of choices than strategic range considerations. Once the US went to war in the Pacific, they launched some of the fastest (super dreadnaught) Battleships ever built -- with all the technological bells and whistles they could be fitted with.

Vince wrote:Also, other questions to ask are: Can you afford (existentially, as well as financially) to have your navy be second-best in technologies you know about, when your opponent has developed better ones? If he has developed better technologies you know about, what about the possibility of better technologies you don't know about?

Weird Harold wrote:A lot depends on what advantage you're giving up or disadvantage you're accepting.

IMHO, you're not giving up a great deal by not getting to a major battle slower than your opponent -- especially when that opponent can't stand against you in N-Space. Even more so if you're not giving up anything in the lighter ship classes you need to find and monitor said opponent. Or when those lighter ships have the capability to "fill in" for your "heavies" -- If you can kill a Task Force of SDs with Heavy Cruisers and a couple of ammo ships...

As has been said in real life, "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future". If you guess wrong in a time of war in giving up an advantage or accepting a disadvantage, you lose lives, money, and time. Lose often enough, and you cease to exist as a nation.

At the end of A Rising Thunder, the two Captains (these are the ones with functioning brains) in the SLN Office of Operational Analysis are discussing the task to provide intelligence on Beowulf they expect to be getting later that afternoon. It is strongly implied that the SLN may actually attack Beowulf before the plebiscite. In other words, the trade war (commerce raiding) is not the only option the SLN sees as acceptable.

What happens if the SLN comes over the hyper limit in a crash translation, and goes for the planet at maximum acceleration in order to compel the planet's surrender before you can intervene? Assume that you have FTL communications relays between the planet and the Beowulf terminus so that you have a chance of responding in time to stop the SLN.

What it sounds like you would do is leave the RMN/GA SDPs at the terminus and send in a force of Nike BCLs and Saganami-Cs CAs, equipped just with the Mark-16G DDM and whatever tractored pods equipped with Mark-23 missiles the Nikes can cary, through N-space. You wouldn't micro-jump because the hyper drive provides a strategic advantage, not a tactical advantage. And

Weird Harold wrote:you're not giving up a great deal by not getting to a major battle slower than your opponent

because you believe you can defeat your opponent with minimal or acceptable losses. Never mind that your opponent either compelled Beowulf to surrender before you could engage them, or just took out all of its orbital industry (the way the PRN hit Basilisk when Esther McQueen was put in charge of the PRN).