cthia wrote:True, they still weren't convinced of Manty superweapons. But they HAD begun to allow for the possibility, which was mentioned at both Ajay and Hypatia. Unfortunately, their best guestimates were still falling way too short. But if their splinter forces were beginning to at least allow for the possibility, certainly it should have been expected that Filareta and Tsang would as well, and might actually err much more on the side of caution. My point is that there was no way We as readers could have informed the RMN that the biggest parts of the gorilla was impotent as well.
Hypatia was the only time the SLN came away from an engagement with actual sensor readings of their own., but that hadn't happened yet. Filareta's and Tsang's actions are what led Beowulf to schedule a plebiscite on the question of secession, which in turn is what led Hypatia to organise their plebiscite.
I don't remember if Ajay had, but even if it had, there was no way for Filareta to have received the information. Ajay happened because Manticore had seized the wormholes, which means the SLN couldn't get information out fast enough. Tsang might have heard of Ajay, but that's not an engagement the SLN walked away from with any data. It wouldn't have helped her.
No, at this point, the SLN only had O'Cleary's information.
I could have sworn he received several ships added to his OOB while he was waiting. Apparently not. At any rate, I was talking about his OOB being upgraded with a few newer ships. I know that isn't possible, now, being reminded of the quickness of his attack. At any rate, the RMN still couldn't have known that.
Filareta did receive more ships and he did receive the pods of Cataphract-Cs. Which he did find strange and he knew the provenance of, partially
because of how quickly it was coming.
But I specifically said "adequately prepared." Crandall ran 73 SDs into a wall in a secondary system defended by heavy cruisers. Getting 100 SDs and Cataphract-Cs against the RMN was not adequate preparation.
The fact that he was already out of the Core by the time Monica happened limits how much he could receive in reinforcement. His ships were clearly of the same generation and maintenance as Crandall's. His techniques and training were also the same. So he was doomed: the GA had 440 modern SD(P)s ready to give him a warm welcome, plus all the Apollo-based system defence missiles. His forces could have been doubled and that wouldn't have saved him.
The RMN should have allowed for it being probable. They didn't. More than that, it would have been the better tactic to let the Manties react and commit to Filareta first and let the real arm of the law hyper in late to the party. The same tactic used by the Salamander. And the Peeps.
-cut-
Stupid indeed, IMO. But it was also reckless and irresponsible to incur that risk. Defeat the enemy in detail. Don't allow them to consolidate their forces. And certainly don't help them to coordinate their forces.
I said it wasn't stupid. I said it was a non-zero risk and they had the option of not incurring it. But I argued that the risk was small, manageable and that they had reasons for taking it. That makes it non-stupid.
As far as anyone knew. But why bank on it when Operation Raging Justice seemed to know something nobody else did? The League certainly has to be aware of how difficult it is to fight thru a fortified terminus, and the entire galaxy knows how well Manticore defends theirs. It is their cash cow! Filareta and Tsang were both billed as being able to lace their boots without assistance. And that damn DB obviously wasn't tasked to tell them about the status of the Forts. Why? It COULD have been because it knew - or powers with bigger paychecks knew - that they already had an answer to the Forts. Or perhaps some other entity was still pulling the strings and was planning that the much needed assistance with the Forts would come from "elsewhere." The MA could have nanited key personnel in the Forts or hacked what Shannon did to StateSec ships. The MA could have caused a little OOPS of their own. We don't really know what Shannon did, so we don't know that the same tactic can't be used on the Forts. But we DO know that nanites would work just fine on key personnel IN those Forts.
Operation Raging Justice did not seem to know something no one else did. On the contrary, it failed to know things others saw clearly. It was based on the faulty assumption that the Manticoran system defences had been reduced to scrap by whoever had launched the Yawata Strike, as there should have been no possible way that someone could hit the space stations without getting through the defences first. That's why it was launched.
Why bank on their not having an unforeseen game-changer? Let's assume she did. What then? It wouldn't have changed the outcome to allow the D.B. through: if Tsang could have got past the 96 SDs arrayed against her with her 100 SDs and got past the forts, she would have anyway, but she couldn't save Filareta. See argument above.
Second, the BSDF got a good scan of her ships when she showed up. They knew she had nothing new in her OOB. They knew she hadn't been reinforced, because she was under constant surveillance. So the risk that she had something that could get past Truman's 60 SD(P)s and withstand fire from the forts is asymptotically equivalent to zero.
You make a good argument that the MAlign could make an appearance. If it's an appearance not coordinated with Tsang, they run the risk of getting timing wrong. As what happened with the the Beowulf stations later in the war, or even if timing was right as the Silver Bullets: clearly
someone else was involved.
If it was coordinated between them:
Not if the technique was a MAlign design and deployed second hand via Malign hands. And possibly accomplished by blowing the Forts from the inside. For one.
Could she have something aboard her ships, given by the MAlign? I again rate this as near zero probability and assume it's the same conclusion that GA planners came to. There's no way such a technique could remain a secret, not if Tsang trained her ships on using it. It would also have loudly screamed "someone else is involved," which the MAlign was trying to avoid.
The MA didn't have to part with it. Their ships could have been prepositioned to light the cake with holy hell at the right moment. I don't think even the Sollies would have been dumb enough to look a gift horse in the mouth. Or in the position to.
This is only 3 months since the Yawata Strike. The defenders were scanning anything larger than a dust in the proximity of the Junction. Plus the forts had their bubblewalls up, which they had the time to do in all forts not just the ready ones because the defenders knew about Filareta's arrival before any hostile force near the Junction could know. The chance that the MAlign could sneak bombs into multiple military installations to blow them up from the inside is zero. Even if that happened, the RMN could reinforce the terminus before Tsang could bring enough ships through to hold it (or any ships at all!). And that's assuming she could get past Truman in the first place.
The Sollies would gladly accept the gift, I agree. But it would still lead to the unavoidable conclusion that someone else was involved, which is exactly what Manticore and Haven had been claiming.
Ahh, that notion depicts more of the arrogance of fools who haven't been forged in the finicky and unpredictable heat of battle who don't know better than to make such assumptions. And I'm gobsmacked. A force smaller than Tsang's could have been much more than enough to defeat what faced her. Recall the various sizes of Honor's forces throughout the years. Twenty five ships equipped with the force of Honor's current hammer would have been more than adequate to do the job. Do recall what happened when the Peeps first got a look at those godawful missiles and completely new tech never before unleashed upon the galaxy. Surprise is its own reward. I simply think it was silly and irresponsible, dangerous and unprofessional to count on the same entity you've been admitting to having the ability to quickly deploy new tech not doing exactly that just in the nick of time. The same thing you have been doing to your own enemy for years.
First of all, let me apologise. When I wrote that TF 11.6 was clearly not serious, I was mis-remembering her OOB. I recalled that she had 37 SDs. That's less than one tenth of what Filareta had. So if Filareta with 431 couldn't get the job done, 37 more 4 hours later wouldn't make a difference.
But she actually had 100 SDs. That's a respectable force. So the argument that the force wasn't serious falls through.
However, see the argument above that the RMN knew exactly what Tsang was bringing to the party. That still stands. More below on the possibility of surprises.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:And besides, Tsang might have unveiled her surprises even if the D.B. had been delayed. Worse, she may have been angered if it had been detained and decide that the Klingon proverb "Heghlu'meH QaQ jajvam" applied so long as she got to fire here missiles at those traitorous Beowulfans.
Dunno what that Klingon proverb says. They never conquered the Federation spreading that much more awfuller than German language.
"Today is a good day to die." Because she engaged, she was clearly going to die.
But I don't think that would have happened. Professionals don't throw their strategy out the window at the last minute.
What part of the chapters paints her in any light that resembles as professional?
This is not Crandall arriving unannounced. Tsang contacted the BSDF to let them know of her intentions. In doing that, she identified herself, allowing the intelligence services to look up her file, and she showed her arrogance, confirming those files.
The DB that did so in the Basilisk system wasn't part of the Navy. Besides, if Tsang really had been the most powerful force, she would have been using her time wisely, to do things like, well, seed the system with her Apollo killers. Platforms that somehow neutralize Apollo's effectiveness.
Agreed, if she had been the lynchpin force. She did no such thing. Conclusion: she wasn't the lynchpin.
Her forces were under constant surveillance by Ghost Riders. The defenders knew she wasn't preparing any surprises outside the ships.
That DB could have been the signal for Tsang to act. She could have changed her tactic to holding Beowulf hostage had that DB informed her the Forts were fully online, if she had an answer for Apollo but had no answer for junction defenses. That DB could have given Tsang the time she needed to show a little initiative and think on the spot. Denying the RMN time to complete its work in the MBS and join forces to defeat her in detail before she could occupy Beowulf's orbitals.
I don't see how she could do anything if she didn't have an answer to both Apollo missiles and the forts. If she could deploy anti-Apollo defences within the 3 or 4 minutes Truman's missiles would take to arrive, at best she would survive against Truman. That makes no difference to what's happening in the MBS.
There may have been a risk to Beowulf. It wasn't as if Case Buccaneer and Parthian Shot could have been carried out on a much more deserving system. In fact, of all the systems the SLN pointed that insane inhumane rage, NONE were as deserving as Beowulf. If your opponent has a pulser on your Ally, you don't want him to receive a dispatch that says go ahead and shoot. The RMN had no way of knowing what that DB was going to set in motion. I bet the British would love to have stopped the famed Paul Revere.
Beowulf is not your run-of-the-mill defenceless system. Case Buccaneer was only applied against those. That's a bully tactic: bullies never pick on those that fight back. Beowulf had the largest system defence force in the entire SL. And what would Tsang do against the Beowulf industry and habitat from a couple of light-hours away? Fire two-stage Cataphracts with 8 hours of ballistic time?
It's not that there was no risk. It's that the risk was manageable.
Or just one big game changer, like a weapon that neutralizes Apollo. And then help from another entity sent by Murphy.
That's two. See above for arguments on why uncoordinated help is not in the MAlign's interests.
But to answer your question. What is the chances of them developing three new pieces of tech at once? As large as an entity as they are? You mean like the small neobarbs once did. 1. Apollo. 2. Dazzlers. 3. Dragon's Teeth???
There's an entire novel about how those things took decades to produce (House of Steel). They didn't turn up overnight. They also came from a nation with a history of innovation and that had been under existential threat for decades. Inventing game-changing techniques is not in the SLN's grain, nor was it fast when it did anything.
It also leaked like a sieve. Beowulf would have known if such a thing existed, even if it wasn't in Crandall's databases. And as I argued, her ships were under constant surveillance from the moment she arrived: she had the same ships that Crandall did.
And again, what would have been the response to the SLN holding a pulser to the head of the RMN's new lover. Knowing the whole of the League is angry as hell over her damn infidelity.
The proper answer is to prevent the situation from happening in the first place. Which they had the time to do. Tsang was not in a position to threaten Beowulf before Truman and the BSDF overwhelmed her.
Besides, "the whole of the League is angry" is not the case, since Beowulf has not declared independence yet. No one is angry at Beowulf. It's Tsang's and Filareta's actions that provide the proximate cause for the plebiscite, which the Mandarin-friendly media uses to stir up hate.
Summation: The RMN broke your number one rule thrice. 1. Failing to shut off lines of communication. 2. Allowing galactic coordination of force. 3. Allowing the enemy's plan to join forces. 4. Smoking crack during their most important battle causing them to become complacent and arrogant. All the things they've been accusing the Sols of, and allowing their infatuation with a new girl cloud their judgement. I think that's called thinking with the wrong head.
Yes, but Rule #1 of Space Warfare: don't interfere with the enemy while he’s in the process of making a mistake (attributed to Napoleon). Tsang's presence and intention to transit provided Beowulf with the golden opportunity to show that the Mandarins were in violation of the League Constitution.
Nobody is allowing for the fact the SLN could have finally deployed new tech, as far as the RMN knew. Which is what they were fearing for the longest. Everybody claims the MA is a one-trick-pony. That could just as well be used to describe the RMNs most devastating tech. If Apollo and it's tech can be countered, the playing field would be leveled.
They allowed for it. The conclusion was that the benefits of incurring the risk were worth the outcome. You can't let all possible risks paralyse you.
