The Two General's Problem

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:I seriously doubt Evelina would have known. I always got the impression that Albrecht's wife was sort of an "outsider" for lack of a better term.

I do not think that is correct; from Storm from the Shadows, chapter 40:

Evelina Detweiler was one of the Mesan Alignment's top biosciences researchers, with a special expertise in bioweapons, working closely with Benjamin's brother Everett and Renzo Kyprianou. And unlike her husband, who was always sharply focused on the task in hand, Evelina was all too often the epitome of the "absent minded professor."

I got the impression she was an outsider of the family. Not an outsider of the Onion. Probably because she simply was not as important as Albrecht was to the Onion. I also got the impression that mommy wasn't as important as dad to the kids. Heck, mommy never got a chance to form that motherly bond as a mother does when she carries a child in her womb. I am not saying that is the way it was, just my feeling.

At any rate, I wouldn't think that Evelina would be privy to a twin. Heck, Albrecht himself might not be. What is important to the MAlign is The Plan. Nothing else.

.

penny wrote:Let's try this again.

What if Albrecht has an identical twin, separated at birth maybe? Which would have been a good plan to have a backup copy of Albrecht. At what point was Albrecht cloned? He needed to survive for the plan.

Twins are a sort of clone as I stated upstream.

Maybe. But if this twin was separated at birth it seems he'd be horribly positioned to act as an effective backup.

If separated at Albrecht's birth and kept from his, and his family's knowledge, that almost by definition means kept from the knowledge of the upper parts of the Onion that Albrecht and his family routinely interact with.

So while Albrecht has had decades and decades to gain hands on experience guiding the MAlign, and to build up knowledge of and relationships with the key players - his secret twin would have none of that knowledge, experience, and relationships. (And frankly, if his twin is as egotistical as Albrecht decades and decades of going slowly nuts knowing about the MAlign and being unable to exert any control over its actions)
It would seem that, at best, this cloistered clone would have only book learning and second hand information about the key players in the MAlign and of Albrecht's plans.

And then when Albrecht dies and whoever has been hiding his twin away trots them out the likely reaction is not going to be "oh thank goodness, we still have an Albrecht" -- it's far more likely to be "Who's this unknown inexperienced dude who you're trying to use to steal control?" Albrechts sons seem far more likely to fight this unknown twin for control that to fall into line behind him. After all, they're each also clones of Albrecht ; but unlike this previously unknown one they've been working with the dad/clone for basically their whole lives helping run the MAlign.

And even if Albrecht was involved in this proposed 'backup' scheme (which the text fails to mention where you'd expect it to if it existed) and was routinely discussing things with and briefing this twin/clone they'd still have to issues of it being a surprise to the rest of the MAlign and the issues that would cause.

A true backup, one that would be effective, would need to be involved day to day, so they had the institutional knowledge and relationships to smoothly take over -- but it'd be very hard to sell readers on the idea there was such a person who somehow escaped any mention in the several books where we got peeks behind the scenes of the upper MAlign.


(Now if you had magical Star War style cloning, where a tissue sample could be fast grown into an adult with all the knowledge and skills of their progenitor, then maybe you could use a recent sample of Albrecht to grow a true replacement. But unless you could make them quickly enough to pretend to be the original I think you'd still have issues getting the sons and other high-level MAlign players to accept them. And Honorverse cloning doesn't work like that -- they're just someone with identical genetics. They don't inherit any knowledge or skills; nor do they advance to adulthood any quicker)

penny wrote:At any rate, I wouldn't think that Evelina would be privy to a twin. Heck, Albrecht himself might not be. What is important to the MAlign is The Plan. Nothing else.

The Malign is not some independent thing, it is a hierarchy with Albrecht and his sons at the top. Aside from all things Jonathan_S lists; if it is not under Albrecht's control (and then later his sons' control), then it is not part of the Malign.

But, why do you think that would be better than the sons taking over?

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:Let's try this again.

What if Albrecht has an identical twin, separated at birth maybe? Which would have been a good plan to have a backup copy of Albrecht. At what point was Albrecht cloned? He needed to survive for the plan.

Twins are a sort of clone as I stated upstream.

Maybe. But if this twin was separated at birth it seems he'd be horribly positioned to act as an effective backup.

If separated at Albrecht's birth and kept from his, and his family's knowledge, that almost by definition means kept from the knowledge of the upper parts of the Onion that Albrecht and his family routinely interact with.

So while Albrecht has had decades and decades to gain hands on experience guiding the MAlign, and to build up knowledge of and relationships with the key players - his secret twin would have none of that knowledge, experience, and relationships. (And frankly, if his twin is as egotistical as Albrecht decades and decades of going slowly nuts knowing about the MAlign and being unable to exert any control over its actions)
It would seem that, at best, this cloistered clone would have only book learning and second hand information about the key players in the MAlign and of Albrecht's plans.

And then when Albrecht dies and whoever has been hiding his twin away trots them out the likely reaction is not going to be "oh thank goodness, we still have an Albrecht" -- it's far more likely to be "Who's this unknown inexperienced dude who you're trying to use to steal control?" Albrechts sons seem far more likely to fight this unknown twin for control that to fall into line behind him. After all, they're each also clones of Albrecht ; but unlike this previously unknown one they've been working with the dad/clone for basically their whole lives helping run the MAlign.

And even if Albrecht was involved in this proposed 'backup' scheme (which the text fails to mention where you'd expect it to if it existed) and was routinely discussing things with and briefing this twin/clone they'd still have to issues of it being a surprise to the rest of the MAlign and the issues that would cause.

A true backup, one that would be effective, would need to be involved day to day, so they had the institutional knowledge and relationships to smoothly take over -- but it'd be very hard to sell readers on the idea there was such a person who somehow escaped any mention in the several books where we got peeks behind the scenes of the upper MAlign.


(Now if you had magical Star War style cloning, where a tissue sample could be fast grown into an adult with all the knowledge and skills of their progenitor, then maybe you could use a recent sample of Albrecht to grow a true replacement. But unless you could make them quickly enough to pretend to be the original I think you'd still have issues getting the sons and other high-level MAlign players to accept them. And Honorverse cloning doesn't work like that -- they're just someone with identical genetics. They don't inherit any knowledge or skills; nor do they advance to adulthood any quicker)

I was thinking that the hidden twin was the sacrificial lamb on Mesa. As someone said, Albrecht's death might have served to ease the sacrifices of the evacuees and lend credence to it. Sort of like the Edward Saganami Syndrome. The entire MAlign is Machiavellian to me. Always one chess move ahead. Long Range Planning. And, well, I still think there is a possibility of another MAlign hideout even beyond Darius.

So all of you think it is alien that there would be things even Albrecht couldn't share with his wife and sons?

penny wrote:I was thinking that the hidden twin was the sacrificial lamb on Mesa. As someone said, Albrecht's death might have served to ease the sacrifices of the evacuees and lend credence to it. Sort of like the Edward Saganami Syndrome. The entire MAlign is Machiavellian to me. Always one chess move ahead. Long Range Planning. And, well, I still think there is a possibility of another MAlign hideout even beyond Darius.

So all of you think it is alien that there would be things even Albrecht couldn't share with his wife and sons?

I have always thought that the Malign should have another hideaway as insurance against Darius falling. But that would entail too many extra books (not that I am against that, but I suspect the author would be).

But about the twin dying on Mesa, so you think that Albrecht would let his wife die AND that she would not recognize that the man pressing the button was not Albrecht? Because you need to then explain the scene on the terrace before the button is pressed.

Also. why not a Gaul pressing the button, if no DNA is going to be found? Requiring someone valuable there is completely unnecessary.

That still does answer why either Albrecht or clone fails to appear in To End in Fire.

PS: Not always one move ahead, some significant times they have been several moves behind,

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:I was thinking that the hidden twin was the sacrificial lamb on Mesa. As someone said, Albrecht's death might have served to ease the sacrifices of the evacuees and lend credence to it. Sort of like the Edward Saganami Syndrome. The entire MAlign is Machiavellian to me. Always one chess move ahead. Long Range Planning. And, well, I still think there is a possibility of another MAlign hideout even beyond Darius.

So all of you think it is alien that there would be things even Albrecht couldn't share with his wife and sons?

I have always thought that the Malign should have another hideaway as insurance against Darius falling. But that would entail too many extra books (not that I am against that, but I suspect the author would be).

But about the twin dying on Mesa, so you think that Albrecht would let his wife die AND that she would not recognize that the man pressing the button was not Albrecht? Because you need to then explain the scene on the terrace before the button is pressed.

Also. why not a Gaul pressing the button, if no DNA is going to be found? Requiring someone valuable there is completely unnecessary.

That still does answer why either Albrecht or clone fails to appear in To End in Fire.

PS: Not always one move ahead, some significant times they have been several moves behind,

Given time, yes, I think Evelina would have known that that was not Albrecht. But we don't know at what point a possible substitution would have been made. Also, they both could have been plants. Smoke and mirrors.

In this scenario, Gauls are not an option if The Plan called for fake deaths of Albrecht and possibly his wife. Then he is spirited to the other hideout other than Darius. For... reasons.

But, in case the GA got too close, the "leader of the MAlign" can now be thrown under the bus. Another cutout.

If this turned out to be the story I will be properly amazed, but in the meantime I have said all that I want to say about a bogus Albrecht. As always, believe whatever you want.

Often see something later, that should be changed.

penny wrote:So all of you think it is alien that there would be things even Albrecht couldn't share with his wife and sons?

There might be, likely are, some things.
But if he wants the MAlign to succeed they can't be things that:
a) affect who will run it after he's gone.
b) where the loss of the information would be significantly detrimental to the MAlign.

Certainly history has examples of keeping important information from those who will have to carry on after you're gone (FDR not briefing Truman on the atomic bomb is a huge and obvious one). But I'd argue that if you keep important information from that type of person then you're acting less than intelligently. At best you're not allowing for your premature death and assuming you'll have time to brief them later (so being unable or unwilling to think through what would be required); at worst you don't care what happens after you're gone.

Successful succession plans need to be known ahead of time by those who will be directly affected by them (not just the person taking over, but also the people that will now be reporting to them), and you need to make sure everyone is in the loop and up to speed. Not only with the information but with their working relationships.

A surprise heir that takes over a company can make for a good story precisely because the transition will be so rough and error prone. But you can't have a surprise heir AND also claim the person they're succeeding did a good job preparing for a smooth and effective transition. So, if Albrecht has a surprise heir then it's because he wasn't setting them or MAlign up for success. Because if it was setting the MAlign up for success if he unexpectedly died then his heir would already be up to speed and both shadowing him and participating in the day to day activities of the top of the org.

So hopefully, if Albrecht wanted the MAlign to carry on successfully without him, any things he hid from his wife and kids were thing they actually didn't need to know. (Or at least ones that are far enough out and/or low enough priority that they can safely learn of them from some posthumous message you'd left)

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:So all of you think it is alien that there would be things even Albrecht couldn't share with his wife and sons?

There might be, likely are, some things.
But if he wants the MAlign to succeed they can't be things that:
a) affect who will run it after he's gone.
b) where the loss of the information would be significantly detrimental to the MAlign.

Certainly history has examples of keeping important information from those who will have to carry on after you're gone (FDR not briefing Truman on the atomic bomb is a huge and obvious one). But I'd argue that if you keep important information from that type of person then you're acting less than intelligently. At best you're not allowing for your premature death and assuming you'll have time to brief them later (so being unable or unwilling to think through what would be required); at worst you don't care what happens after you're gone.

Successful succession plans need to be known ahead of time by those who will be directly affected by them (not just the person taking over, but also the people that will now be reporting to them), and you need to make sure everyone is in the loop and up to speed. Not only with the information but with their working relationships.

A surprise heir that takes over a company can make for a good story precisely because the transition will be so rough and error prone. But you can't have a surprise heir AND also claim the person they're succeeding did a good job preparing for a smooth and effective transition. So, if Albrecht has a surprise heir then it's because he wasn't setting them or MAlign up for success. Because if it was setting the MAlign up for success if he unexpectedly died then his heir would already be up to speed and both shadowing him and participating in the day to day activities of the top of the org.

So hopefully, if Albrecht wanted the MAlign to carry on successfully without him, any things he hid from his wife and kids were thing they actually didn't need to know. (Or at least ones that are far enough out and/or low enough priority that they can safely learn of them from some posthumous message you'd left)

Didn’t mean to ruffle any feathers.

Everybody was discussing how Albrecht didn’t need to die because he could have gotten out sooner, or could have attempted to get out somehow later on after the smoke cleared. Even his sons couldn’t understand why he remained behind so long.

But Albrecht wasn’t stupid. Obviously there is a reason he remained on Mesa so long without getting out. And it is for that reason that I condition myself for the fact that the author may have a surprise in store for us. Albrecht definitely procrastinated getting out for a reason. He also could have sent his wife on ahead of himself but also didn’t do that either. So, something Machiavellian?

Just offering up another perspective other than 'the Alpha wasn't so smart'.

The fact that we haven't heard of any of this in storyline us beside the point and completely silly. Why would an author serve wine before its time. Several of us feel that there is another hideout other than Darius. That hasn't been mentioned either.

YMMV. It always does when you're driving so fast you can't stop to smell the roses.

penny wrote:He could also have sent his wife on ahead of himself but also didn’t do that either.

Not wishing to be argumentative, but that was discussed when they were saying goodbye and she insisted that she would never leave him.


I wonder if they sent their bodyguards away?