Weird Harold wrote:You mean I'd be facing those mangled and damaged SDs that retreated from my fixed defenses? Those demoralized Crews who had to retreat from a system without decent mobile defenses?
I'm going to distract anything really combat capable and destroy your reserves, repair facilities and orbital infrastructure -- then run like hell and do it again to your other 21 systems.
Assuming I was an idiot and send my entire fleet to be ambushed and destroyed, more likely I send a task force or two, they got mangled up returned to base and you go up against my fixed defenses, LAC’s and System picket that chews up your BC/DN’s because I have a mobile fleet present in each system as well as strategic reserve in certain systems.
Let’s take Beowulf and its SD’s, assume that I have 22 systems which average 75% of Beowulf’s Industry and economy, some systems like my dozen heavily industrialized might be equal or greater while others will be less so assume it averages to 75%.
(22 systems *36 SD’s)*.75=594 SD’s
(22 systems *50 BB’s)*.75=825 BB’s
(And this is SD’s and BB’s in full service, there could be more in reserve since the SD’s Beowulf has are in addition to the 10,000 that the SLN has)
Half would be deployed in system pickets, a quarter would be deployed in strategic reserve and that leaves me with a quarter for offensive operations. That means my offensive fleet is at 148 SD’s and 206 BBs, my system picket would be at least 10 SD’s, 15 BB’s plus appropriate screen, LAC’s, Missile pods and such. Which means that your 40 BC/DN’s with 200 LAC’s would be met by at least 15 of my BB’s which are equal to or slightly weaker than your BC/DNs, 10 SD’s that have at least 2X the firepower of your DN/BC’s if not more and then put in my Screen, LAC’s and missile pods. And that is before the “demoralized” remnants are accounted and assuming you have concentrated your entire fleet in to one place and worked them up sufficiently to be able to work as a unit.
So you come in to my system and lets say for the sake of argument you do destroy the picket, defeated fleet and all my fixed and mobile in systems defenses and all industry in system at the cost of 80% of your fleet. What do you think happens when I come back with blood in my eyes and with a fleet that is ready and with almost 30,000 Katana’s?
The assumptions you make are that my mobile fleet is the only defense I have, I have missile pods, LAC’s and a fleet picket. So unless you are dealing with a SLN officer you will likely damage or destroy only a fraction of my fleet and even if you destroy the infrastructure of one system you will win a pyrrhic victory that will wipe out your mobile fleet such as it is and leave your systems all on their own and your merchant marine either in home port or hunted down.
If Beowulf maintain 36 SD’s and an unknown screen while it has the SLN defending it, what makes you think other Core systems won’t have equal or greater SD especially when they can no longer count for the SLN’s protection?
So for you to come back and destroy my demoralized fleet and my system(s), you would have to hope that (1) I send the entire fleet, (2) that you score complete surprise, (3) that I have no fixed defenses, (4) that you score such a complete sucker punch that my fleet is either completely destroyed or at the very least damaged and demoralized, (5) you lose no ships of your own, (6) that your entire fleet is in that one system at that one time.
If anyone of those things doesn't happen your chances of any victory slip away.
(1)If I don't send the entire fleet there is something to meet the counter attack and quite likely defeat it.
(2)If you do not score complete surprise because you face a competent field commander who has a thick screen of Katana’s and recon probes that spot your ambush your LAC’s and Mobile fleet will get hammered even if eventually I have to retreat.
(3)If I have fixed defenses that can mangle up your fleet so even if you win the day I beat you at the end.
(4)If you score complete surprise but due to murphy you don't score a knockout punch your counter attack will face overwhelming odds.
(5)You lose a substantial portion of the ships present (assuming you have your fleet concentrated).
(6)And if you don't have your fleet concentrated in one system, I would have a chance to gather reinforcements, get my fleet reorganized and ready for round two by the time you get your fleet concentrated and worked up to a level you could feel comfortable with. I can draw on the strategic reserve to counter attack even if my entire fleet is a write off and your greatest advantage (surprise) goes out the window because next time I will be ready to slaughter your LAC’s and destroy your missles.
Weird Harold wrote: You really don't believe that Manticore will continue to be concerned about successor states being bigger than they are or aggressive threats to peace and galactic stability.
No, I believe that Manticore and the GA will not concern themselves with every little conflict, they will not sign mutual defense alliances with everyone because it will mean that they will have to maintain a grand fleet and a massive army to fight in all the wars that will happen in the 30 years between the 2,000+ systems. They will sign Mutual Defense treaties and alliances with select nations that will essentially keep a lid on all major wars and maybe even introduce some rivalry between successor states but will not really care if someone didn't build a fleet and lost a few systems in a war.
They cannot spend the lives and treasure of their citizens for 30+ years, enforcing treaties to keep a peace that doesn't benefit them. Dealing predominantly with the major successor states would accomplish pretty much the same thing but with less involvement from them rather than having 27 billion people provide the fleet and army to enforce a bunch of treaties that encompass at least 3 trillion people but likely quite a bit more.
If Manticore sets up those nodal forces they have to make sure that everyone pulls their weight, that the nodal forces enforce the treaties and they don't end up being used to oppress the population of a member nation under the guise of mutual defense.
You still haven't answered what Manticore will actually do in this nodal force, who will provide the ships necessary, who will make sure everyone is pulling their share, who will provide the ships if the nodal forces prove inadequate or a disaster strikes where every member of the nodal force is demanding the force to protect them. And best of all, 30 years after the war how would you convince the citizens of Manticore to care about one nation hundreds of light years away fighting another nations that is also hundreds of light years away. If I attack you and I pose no problem to Manticore and in fact am an important trade partner do you think that Manticore will care about our little squabble happening far far away.
Sort of like how no one, not the US,UK,Canada,Russia, China... not one nation that could do something gave a single damn about what happened to the 800,000 Rwandan’s or hundreds of thousands of Sudanese who were slaughtered and the millions who were displaced, if we can’t get people on our little world to care about each other why would it change when humanity spreads through thousands of systems?
Weird Harold wrote: You've refused anything other than a bilateral peace treaty (apparently grudgingly signed,) with the GA and you think turning Conquistador is going to reassure them you're no danger?
Why would I be a danger to them? If I am a nation made up of core worlds fighting another nation made up of core worlds why would the GA sign up for what essentially mean one large war that would essentially piss off the whole galaxy? I would have the industrial and economic muscle to if necessary build up a significant fleet. If Beowulf can have 36 SD’s without straining their economy, if Manticore and the GA starts playing galactic policeman what happens if my 22 Core worlds with 75% average industrial and economic might decide to build a real fleet? Basically build 5 times the SD’s Beowulf has, it will stress the economy but ultimately if my population is pissed off about being bullied by the GA and Manticore they would be pretty motivated, and what happens if I am not alone? The GA ends up facing a bunch of heavily armed and really pissed off nations...exactly the opposite result from what they want.
Basically the entire purpose of the Harrington Doctrine is to prevent successor states from going after the GA, the way to do that is not to force hundreds or thousands of Systems into alliances at gun point and then go to war every time two or more nations settle their differences with war. What the Harrington Doctrine will accomplish if it is put into effect the way you present it is to make Manticore the bad guy of all human occupied space kind of like the US is viewed only worse, everyone will hate them and it will accomplish the exact opposite of what they want.
The League does not have the same loyal and patriotic population that Manticore, Grayson and Haven have, they are a bunch of nation states belonging pretty much symbolically to the League. If the GA does things right from the start they can actually transition most League members into freedom and leave them alone from where most will remain on good terms with the GA because their loyalty belongs to their own nations and not to the League.
Weird Harold wrote: They may or may not show up on your doorstep today, but Germany eventually paid for their aggression with total defeat -- what make you think your conquests will work out any better in the long run?
That is because Germany kept starting new wars before ending the previous war...plus Hitler was the best allied general of them all, he kept making military decisions that ended up benefiting us and working against the Germans, if Germany had someone other than Hitler at the helm the outcome might have been different.
If I conquer you, destroy your infrastructure and industry in the process of the war and kill millions of your people, what does it matter to you if at the end I get defeated? And better yet if the war costs alot for Manticore’s military and society in general even through it did not endanger them at all why would they pursue it in the first place? How does it benefit them to make the entire galaxy pissed off at them? Isn't their entire goal the exact opposite?
