OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?

cthia wrote:I understand that. And I fully expect 3rd to be deployed near the junction when she is in the system alone.

I could not understand why the RMN would not have taken advantage of 8th fleet's visit and had 3rd fleet switch with 8th fleet - since 8th was there. Convenience. Practicality. And a more aggressive deployment. Having 8th fleet near the junction would have been a better allocation of resources through a more fitting deployment.

8th fleet is not a defensive unit, no, but her tertiary responsibilities do include supporting Home Fleet. And during what should have been a Defcon 3 Case Zulu ...

To elaborate a bit on what tlb and Theemile already said:
The book is quite clear that Honor and "most of Eighth Fleet is off the terminus, on maneuvers. I don't know how quickly it can get back there, but I'm guessing it'll take at least a couple of hours just for Duchess Harrington to get to the terminus." She was holding war games to work up her new additions to 8th fleet. But that phrasing makes it clear to me that if she wasn't off holding maneuvers Caparelli expected her to have been near the terminus.


Not too long before the BoM she'd had "added twenty-two SD(P)s—every one of them Keyhole II-capable—to Eighth Fleet's order of battle", the IAN's TF 16 with it new build updated Adlers. She needed those exercises and maneuvers to get those additions integrated into the well honed machine that was (currently) the GA's only offensive striking fleet.

And the 8th fleet ships that weren't involved... well, "Alistair McKeon's Sixty-First Battle Squadron, most of Alice Truman's carriers, and the rest of Honor's cruisers and destroyers had stayed home, near the Trevor's Star terminus of the Junction with Admiral Kuzak's Third Fleet". That's why McKeon's ships were with Kuzak's forces for the BoM.


So, it sounds during their temporary pause in offensive operations 8th fleet was normally near the terminus. But not to the exclusion of the necessary training they had to do to get their new additions fully worked up and incorporated into their command and control -- and that takes real world exercises to come to agreements on tactics, get used to each commander's (and command's) strengths and weaknesses, and generally work out the kinks around expectations and orders during training rather than making those mistakes in the face of the enemy.

RFC simply dictated the coincidence that 8th fleet happened to be off on maneuvers, their latest war game, and a few hours away from the terminus when he had the Republic's forces crash their way into the MBS.

They certainly could have been running those exercises in the outer areas of Manticore B if desired.

cthia wrote:Apollo can not be mousetrapped

Actually, it can be if sufficient force is applied. My guess on what Weber originally planned for the Battle of Manticore (the version where Honor was KIA, like Nelson at Trafalgar) was when Chin came out of hyperspace to ambush the combined 3rd and 8th Fleet formation, Honor's flagship, "Imperator" was one of the first victims. Unfortunately, for Chin, she didn't realize how many Apollo capable SD(P)s she was facing until the first wave hit. And then more waves hit before what was left of Fifth fleet could hyper out.

kzt wrote:They certainly could have been running those exercises in the outer areas of Manticore B if desired.

That would have shown the IAN Adlers. Up until this point, they were MIA. Depending on how long Haven's control loop was, they could adapt to the presence of those ships.

There's also the SLN. At this point, the RMN doesn't know how stupid the SLN intel shop is. They are assuming that the SLN is observing the terminus and therefore has a far shorter control loop via Beowulf than Haven has.

There's a question of just how those IAN ships arrived. Did they transit from Gregor to San Martin via Manticore? That would have shown them at the Junction. Truman has shown that it's possible to hide transiting ships, but that was against the SLN and TBH that was risky. Against a good opponent like Haven, one has to assume that there are spies in the Junction all the time and that they will report on you. So OpSec would call for those ships to remain incognito unless the attack is expected at less than the time via hyperspace from Manticore to the target.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That would have shown the IAN Adlers. Up until this point, they were MIA. Depending on how long Haven's control loop was, they could adapt to the presence of those ships.

There's also the SLN. At this point, the RMN doesn't know how stupid the SLN intel shop is. They are assuming that the SLN is observing the terminus and therefore has a far shorter control loop via Beowulf than Haven has.

There's a question of just how those IAN ships arrived. Did they transit from Gregor to San Martin via Manticore? That would have shown them at the Junction. Truman has shown that it's possible to hide transiting ships, but that was against the SLN and TBH that was risky. Against a good opponent like Haven, one has to assume that there are spies in the Junction all the time and that they will report on you. So OpSec would call for those ships to remain incognito unless the attack is expected at less than the time via hyperspace from Manticore to the target.

Well Manticore B is pretty isolated - that why it's generally where Manticore builds and shakes down its new secret ship designs.

However the only quick way to get from Trevor's Star to Manticore B and back is to go through the Junction -- and you're right about how hard it would be to hide that traffic.

And those IAN Addlers are a major game-changer for the GA. 22 Adlers is massive reinforcement for 8th fleet - not quite doubling its size!. They're no small part of why Theisman was so far off in his estimate of the number of Apollo capable ships.

Counting McKeon's squadron 8th fleet had 38 SD(P)s, and 22 of then are IAN! That means TF 16 (which, remember, joined maybe a month before the BoM) represented a nearly 73% increase to 8th fleet's wallers and they're now making up the majority (nearly 58%) of its wall! And they represents an even larger percentage of its fighting power because we know at least some of Honor's other ships weren't Keyhole II equipped (1/3rd of McKeon's squadron; for example); while all the Adlers did carry Keyhole II.

I can see why they'd go to some effort to keep that level of reinforcement secret until they can be used in the next round of raids. (Though, as things actually played out it wouldn't have mattered, the Beatrice forces would already have been on their way before anybody could have gotten word of 22 new SD(P)s passing through the Junction; so they'd never have received that intel)

Jonathan_S wrote:And those IAN Addlers are a major game-changer for the GA. 22 Adlers is massive reinforcement for 8th fleet - not quite doubling its size!. They're no small part of why Theisman was so far off in his estimate of the number of Apollo capable ships.

Counting McKeon's squadron 8th fleet had 38 SD(P)s, and 22 of then are IAN! That means TF 16 (which, remember, joined maybe a month before the BoM) represented a nearly 73% increase to 8th fleet's wallers and they're now making up the majority (nearly 58%) of its wall! And they represents an even larger percentage of its fighting power because we know at least some of Honor's other ships weren't Keyhole II equipped (1/3rd of McKeon's squadron; for example); while all the Adlers did carry Keyhole II.

I can see why they'd go to some effort to keep that level of reinforcement secret until they can be used in the next round of raids. (Though, as things actually played out it wouldn't have mattered, the Beatrice forces would already have been on their way before anybody could have gotten word of 22 new SD(P)s passing through the Junction; so they'd never have received that intel)

That makes me feel a little better about Theisman's major mistake. I think that he was generally aware of construction levels at Manticore and Grayson, but still could be unaware about reinforcement from the Andermani. But still this implies that there may have been no way for Haven to come close to winning; which means that all speculation about positioning of forces, just shifts around the number killed in the battle without fundamentally changing the results.

Without the CO of 8th fleet smoking crack, no. If she did a Kuzak and decided to throw away every possible advantage and fight on the RHNs terms, then maybe. For example, don’t shoot until you are in deep inside effective range of the RHN missiles, don’t prepare to fight, etc.

My niece does not like the fact that Honor was "on maneuvers," she always called it "on manures."

Because hitting peripheral systems like a gangsta in a drive-by movie is a shameful use of Salamander. She should have remained in the MBS to protect the Queen. Why? Because it was a Defcon 3 Case Zulu. And if anyone wants to argue for it being a Defcon 2, I won't belabor the point.

Any way, on maneuvers is pretty damn vague. Working up can be done as close as possible to the junction.*

At any rate, during a Case Zulu (which means imminent) you would have me to believe that a navy wouldn't want to keep its most powerful fleet close, to the exclusion of most every other concern? If you know you are going to get hit!?

Nimitz, Yi Sun-sin, Nelson, any one of the great admirals would love to have had a prior warning of an impending attack and where.

*But then, maybe that is just what Honor did, since she got there just in time.

After Apollo was unveiled, Honor's manuevers should have ended. I will not be convinced that the Admiralty didn't expect an invasion. Would you and textev also have me to believe that the Admiralty didn't see it coming? So Theisman is a better strategist? But a weaker tactician?

cthia wrote:Because hitting peripheral systems like a gangsta in a drive-by movie is a shameful use of Salamander. She should have remained in the MBS to protect the Queen. Why? Because it was a Defcon 3 Case Zulu. And if anyone wants to argue for it being a Defcon 2, I won't belabor the point.

Any way, on maneuvers is pretty damn vague. Working up can be done as close as possible to the junction.*

At any rate, during a Case Zulu (which means imminent) you would have me to believe that a navy wouldn't want to keep its most powerful fleet close, to the exclusion of most every other concern? If you know you are going to get hit!?

Case Zulu is NOT an imminent attack, it is an ACTUAL attack.

I think the strongest argument that the Admiralty did not expect an attack on the home system is precisely that Honor was not recalled to the home system to beef up defense. After all, her maneuvers could also have been done to the polar north (or south) of Manticore-A. Clearly the main reason this was not done was to hide the added participation of the Andermani fleet (quite aside from no one expecting an attack; not even Honor, since she had the clout to insist on a change).

tlb wrote:Case Zulu is NOT an imminent attack, it is an ACTUAL attack.

I think the strongest argument that the Admiralty did not expect an attack on the home system is precisely that Honor was not recalled to the home system to beef up defense. After all, her maneuvers could also have been done to the polar north (or south) of Manticore-A. Clearly the main reason this was not done was to hide the added participation of the Andermani fleet (quite aside from no one expecting an attack; not even Honor, since she had the clout to insist on a change).

Actually...

On Basilisk Station wrote:Case Zulu had one meaning, and one only: "Invasion Imminent."

However nobody declared Case Zulu until Tourville's two hundred SD(P)s popped over the hyper wall.

In fact the RMN was working to get 8th fleet ready to launch Sanskrit II ASAP. In fact Honor had been given a tentative go date already

At All Costs - Ch. 60 wrote:"Again," Caparelli stressed, "we're not going to commit to Sanskrit II until we've got a detailed plan, based on hard numbers and the most recent intelligence and scouting reports on Jouett. With that proviso, however, Your Grace, you're officially directed to begin preliminary planning immediately for the operation. Your tentative execution date will be sixty days from today."

So, in chapter 60 we have 8th fleet given orders to start working up for offensive operations in 2 months -- mostly that means integrating their new massive IAN reinforcements. And then 2 chapters later we have them engaging in their intermural war game maneuvers when Tourville's fleet crashes into the MBS.


I think cthia might be applying a bit too much hindsight to the situation. Since we (now) know 8th was critical in saving the MBS it's hard to avoid thinking the Admiralty should have been fully defensive and keeping their most powerful force close to hand to protect the home system. But, in actuality, they don't seem to have had much concern about an attack there. Nobody seems to have through an invasion was imminent - not at the MBS. And so given that Honor's orders were to be ready to assault Jouett (home of one of Haven's oldest daughter colonies - and home of their oldest satellite shipyard) it makes sense that she was prioritizing preparation for that over hanging around near the terminus on the off chance she was needed at Manticore.