Insanity: Screening elements in the HV

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That just reminds me that Travis said a DDM would be "as big as a destroyer, as expensive as a frigate" and yet we got something that was neither. So technologically this could happen.

However, it doesn't improve the tactical situation if the range is that greatly diminished. Those who aren't stealthy have no use for a shorter range weapon, those who are stealthy probably have a better weapon.

Theemile wrote:Don't forget, Travis said that in the mid 1600s, ~300 years of technological progress has passed.

To get the 300 Horsepower found in my modern car in 1725 technology would have required several steam engines, each of which is the size of 8 40' shipping containers; where you could easily pack several scores of my modern car engine in a single container.

While your statement is relevant, we can't compare apples to apples - the base tech is just too diffferent.

Here are some foolish technology predictions from much more recent times; extracted from the PCWorld article "The 7 Worst Tech Predictions of All Time":

Foolish Tech Prediction 1
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, president of IBM, 1943
Foolish Tech Prediction 2
“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946
Foolish Tech Prediction 3
“Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years.”
Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955
Foolish Tech Prediction 4
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
Foolish Tech Prediction 5
“Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995
Foolish Tech Prediction 6
“Apple is already dead.”
Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997
Foolish Tech Prediction 7
“Two years from now, spam will be solved.”
Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004

It is true that Apple almost went bankrupt, but they did get help. Including from Microsoft (it is said), because MS was worried about a monopoly case from the Department of Justice.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:"A few hundred" could be anywhere from 150 to 500.

Surely "a few hundred" has to start at 200 or 300, not 150. Two hundred might even be "a couple", rather than "a few".

tlb wrote:You should realize that these things CAN be stopped by graser and laser fire, the same as any other missile that gets through the first defense by CM's. In any case the GA has been known to survive attacks by Graser or laser-head missiles.

I don't doubt that the lack of CM interception would be a problem and the fleet would take a beating. But CMs are not the only defence.

First, the PDLCs are designed to shoot down a couple of thousand of missiles arriving at 0.8c. A fleet action will also have multiple layers of escorts firing PDLCs before the missiles arrive. Those oversized missiles may or may not have higher acceleration, and may or may not have had longer runtime (if they have lower acceleration, add more stages). But they will definitely be bigger in size, so they are also bigger targets.

Second, quantity. All else being equal, a bigger and more expensive missile will be deployed in fewer quantities than another that is smaller and cheaper. That means fewer targets for the defenders to shoot. If this is an offensive action by the MAN, one would expect this to be a limiting factor. Plus, a defended system would likely deploy spherical sidewalls anyway, and the missiles tell they're coming several minutes in advance. If the MAN is the defender, like in the case of an attack on Darius, the attackers would probably probe defences while staying outside the hyperlimit, while destroying C&C installations. Waiting for the GF to be sufficiently inside the hyperlimit to deploy those missiles might be fatal.

Third, don't forget that GA capital ships will fight with their wedges interposed, so those missiles will still have the same difficulty hitting a ship as a regular missile. Being bigger it may have a bigger brain, maybe as smart as an ACM. But bigger brains doesn't mean it does things better if it doesn't know how to do them. So the brains and targetting on that missile may not be as advanced and especially as debugged and refined as the GA, who did fight wars. That means it may have a harder time hitting a turtled ship when flying past at 0.8c (and flying slower just means it's an easier target for the defences).

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Second, quantity. All else being equal, a bigger and more expensive missile will be deployed in fewer quantities than another that is smaller and cheaper. That means fewer targets for the defenders to shoot.

Yep. You've got to account for that virtual attrition; if they're several times the size then you can carry and launch several times fewer of them.

Still, I would think if it was possible to build a missile capable of plowing through CMs, that was only 2 or 3 times larger than a regular missile that someone would have built on already. I get the impression that (at least before pods) you lost more than 50 or even 66% of each salvo to CMs -- so if you could throw even 33% as many missiles but lose none of them to CMs you'd come out ahead.

At least for the brief period before everyone reacted by similarly upscaling CMs until they were able to kill these oversized missile again. And now you're nearly back to status quo ante; except both offensive and defensive salvos are smaller.

But the fast that nobody has makes me think that such a weapon would, in fact, have to be way way larger than a regular missile. So large (and expensive) that even after losing none to CMs your opponents would be facing fewer weapons hitting their PDLC envelope that if you'd sunk those same resources into building a conventional salvo that did lose a bunch to CMs.

Jonathan_S wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Second, quantity. All else being equal, a bigger and more expensive missile will be deployed in fewer quantities than another that is smaller and cheaper. That means fewer targets for the defenders to shoot.

Yep. You've got to account for that virtual attrition; if they're several times the size then you can carry and launch several times fewer of them.

Still, I would think if it was possible to build a missile capable of plowing through CMs, that was only 2 or 3 times larger than a regular missile that someone would have built on already. I get the impression that (at least before pods) you lost more than 50 or even 66% of each salvo to CMs -- so if you could throw even 33% as many missiles but lose none of them to CMs you'd come out ahead.

At least for the brief period before everyone reacted by similarly upscaling CMs until they were able to kill these oversized missile again. And now you're nearly back to status quo ante; except both offensive and defensive salvos are smaller.

But the fast that nobody has makes me think that such a weapon would, in fact, have to be way way larger than a regular missile. So large (and expensive) that even after losing none to CMs your opponents would be facing fewer weapons hitting their PDLC envelope that if you'd sunk those same resources into building a conventional salvo that did lose a bunch to CMs.

It could be that the potential technology was simply overlooked, dismissed or not conceived. All the above has been done several times before. For instance…

Due to difficulties developing fusion technology, the Graysons continued to use fission reactors long after other nations had switched to fusion power. This meant that the Graysons developed fission reactors that were far smaller, safer, and more efficient than almost anywhere else in the galaxy. This technology was taken by Manticore, and used to develop more advanced reconnaissance drones, LACs, and, eventually, missiles.

Also, in developing their own version of the inertial compensator, the Graysons used a method that "everyone knew wouldn't work," but which actually did. Manticore perfected this technology once the Graysons demonstrated that it was practical, giving the alliances ships a decided advantage in acceleration over the Havenites.

And some people (White Haven) failed to see the need for MDMs(?) even after they were developed.

Besides, necessity is the mother of invention. Again, Grayson. And if Grayson is the mother of invention then the MAN is surely the grandmother.

And somebody please tell me, why is it that most posters fail to think that the Mesan Alignment will come up with breakthroughs in current technology?

A different set of eyes is oftentimes better.

penny wrote:And some people (White Haven) failed to see the need for MDMs(?) even after they were developed.

Besides, necessity is the mother of invention. Again, Grayson. And if Grayson is the mother of invention then the MAN is surely the grandmother.

And somebody please tell me, why is it that most posters fail to think that the Mesan Alignment will come up with breakthroughs in current technology?

A different set of eyes is oftentimes better.

In the Honorverse the author is the father of invention. We have seen the Malign come up with several inventions that no one could have predicted (so there should not be anyone who thinks that they are incapable). We have to wait for whatever the author does next. There is a chance you are close and a chance that you are wildly off the mark - we will see.

penny wrote:It could be that the potential technology was simply overlooked, dismissed or not conceived. All the above has been done several times before.
...
And some people (White Haven) failed to see the need for MDMs(?) even after they were developed.

Besides, necessity is the mother of invention. Again, Grayson. And if Grayson is the mother of invention then the MAN is surely the grandmother.

And somebody please tell me, why is it that most posters fail to think that the Mesan Alignment will come up with breakthroughs in current technology?

A different set of eyes is oftentimes better.

That's possible, but in this case the history is that the MAlign is the one doing brute force and the Manticorans doing the scalpel. If anyone is going to come up with more powerful missile wedges (and CM wedges too) with a reasonable size body, it's the GA with the beta-squared nodes and micro-fusion power generation. If the MAlign had wanted a 10x more powerful wedge, they'd probably have to make a 20x bigger missile.

penny wrote:And somebody please tell me, why is it that most posters fail to think that the Mesan Alignment will come up with breakthroughs in current technology?

A different set of eyes is oftentimes better.

It's not that I don't think they'll make breakthroughs. They have and they will. (Spider drive, streak drive, graser-head missiles, Hasta, 2-stage/drive CMs)

But just because they will make breakthroughs doesn't mean every proposed idea is likely; or even possible. (And yes, it is easier to point out issues with ideas than it is to dream them up in the first place. Since you're the main person speculating on what they might do, unfortunately you've also been the one getting hit with most of that pointing out of issues)


But let me throw out a possible weapon development (though kind of a boring one).
Historically minefields have been hard to use effectively because it's hard to put them where an enemy doesn't expect but will still fly through them. The MAlign could potentially kit-bash some of their existing toys into graser-head mines that can get deployed by stealthy Hasta-style self-propelled containers. Combine that with a (sacrificial) decoy platform to fool a GA fleet into thinking they've got a bead on a stealth ship and you might be able to get them moving down a vector where you can quickly lay an extra deadly minefield without detection.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's possible, but in this case the history is that the MAlign is the one doing brute force and the Manticorans doing the scalpel. If anyone is going to come up with more powerful missile wedges (and CM wedges too) with a reasonable size body, it's the GA with the beta-squared nodes and micro-fusion power generation. If the MAlign had wanted a 10x more powerful wedge, they'd probably have to make a 20x bigger missile.

I guess that's fair; the spider drive, streak drive and 3 second graser are all examples of brute force leading to something new. Another example could be the Cataphract, which they had a hand in developing.

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:And somebody please tell me, why is it that most posters fail to think that the Mesan Alignment will come up with breakthroughs in current technology?

A different set of eyes is oftentimes better.

It's not that I don't think they'll make breakthroughs. They have and they will. (Spider drive, streak drive, graser-head missiles, Hasta, 2-stage/drive CMs)

Of course. But that's not what I meant. I meant breakthroughs in existing conventional tech. I should have been clear. I suppose the 2-stage/CM-drive goes on their resume as such. And the g-torp does as well as an energy weapon breakthrough.

Jonathan_S wrote:But just because they will make breakthroughs doesn't mean every proposed idea is likely; or even possible. (And yes, it is easier to point out issues with ideas than it is to dream them up in the first place. Since you're the main person speculating on what they might do, unfortunately you've also been the one getting hit with most of that pointing out of issues)

Sure. There are pods of stuff stuck in my head. I just need to get them out. Misery loves company? I don't have an issue with any of you pointing out problems with anything I propose. I need honesty. We don't want to get any of our spacers killed do we? As long as it is done respectfully and with tact. You are always respectful. Oftentimes when problems are pointed out new ideas surface. It oftentimes turns into a mutual brainstorming event by happenstance.

I simply see possibilities like everyone else I suppose. I just don't have a problem sharing. And since I'm an Alpha, there's oftentimes some possibility in the idea. But I do hate disagreement for the sake of.

And tlb, we all know it is up to the author. Honestly. We know.

Jonathan_S wrote:But let me throw out a possible weapon development (though kind of a boring one).
Historically minefields have been hard to use effectively because it's hard to put them where an enemy doesn't expect but will still fly through them. The MAlign could potentially kit-bash some of their existing toys into graser-head mines that can get deployed by stealthy Hasta-style self-propelled containers. Combine that with a (sacrificial) decoy platform to fool a GA fleet into thinking they've got a bead on a stealth ship and you might be able to get them moving down a vector where you can quickly lay an extra deadly minefield without detection.

OMG! How can you call that boring!? Can anyone truly imagine a graser-head minefield? I agree; their toys can conspire to raise holy hell in the GA's business as usual itinerary.

In my head, I have always seen LDs deploying minefields as spike strips.

Spider-drive minelayers can throw out "spike strips" in the path of an unsuspecting fleet; after watching their same old routine and unchanging habits in time of peace. Like returning to orbit after wargames. I dunno. Something. But the idea of a graser-head minefield just blows my socks off.