Ukraine

...How exactly we are responsible for a phenomenal stupidity of Ukrainian admirals (they have 13 of them, by the way - more than warships in the fleet), who send RIVER gunboats and harbor tug over the Black Sea - from Odessa to Kerch - hoping that they somehow would traverse the Strait, protected with enough firepower to obliterate the US 6th fleet?

Seriously, this was absolute clear provocation from Ukrainian side. If they didn't want to escalate the whole situations, their ships should NOT enter the disputed territorial waters before all things would be cleared. They have a tanker in support, so the fuel was not an issue. Instead, two 30-ton river gunboats and old harbor tug tried to force their way through the strait, despite the repeated warnings to NOT do that. If it isn't provocation, WHAT IT IS?

Moreover, while remaining in disputed waters, they started to train their gun mounts on Russian Board Guard ships. I wonder, what would USN do with, say, Iranian ship, which entered US coastal waters without permission and started to lock its weapon on US Coast Guard vessels?

Basically, some idiotic Ukrainian admiral decided to organize a little bit of provocation. And the reason is pretty clear; the Poroshenko is extremely unpopular, and most likely lose the soon-to-come President elections. Declaring the state of emergency, he could brush aside around this pesky little "democracy" and stay in power as long as he wanted.

P.S. Obviously, the Ukrainian Rada (parlament) suspected exactly that, because they did NOT support the 60-day emergency, suggested by President, and actually accused him of striving for dictatorship.

Dilandu wrote:...How exactly we are responsible for a phenomenal stupidity of Ukrainian admirals (they have 13 of them, by the way - more than warships in the fleet), who send RIVER gunboats and harbor tug over the Black Sea - from Odessa to Kerch - hoping that they somehow would traverse the Strait, protected with enough firepower to obliterate the US 6th fleet?

Seriously, this was absolute clear provocation from Ukrainian side. If they didn't want to escalate the whole situations, their ships should NOT enter the disputed territorial waters before all things would be cleared. They have a tanker in support, so the fuel was not an issue. Instead, two 30-ton river gunboats and old harbor tug tried to force their way through the strait, despite the repeated warnings to NOT do that. If it isn't provocation, WHAT IT IS?

Moreover, while remaining in disputed waters, they started to train their gun mounts on Russian Board Guard ships. I wonder, what would USN do with, say, Iranian ship, which entered US coastal waters without permission and started to lock its weapon on US Coast Guard vessels?

Basically, some idiotic Ukrainian admiral decided to organize a little bit of provocation. And the reason is pretty clear; the Poroshenko is extremely unpopular, and most likely lose the soon-to-come President elections. Declaring the state of emergency, he could brush aside around this pesky little "democracy" and stay in power as long as he wanted.

P.S. Obviously, the Ukrainian Rada (parlament) suspected exactly that, because they did NOT support the 60-day emergency, suggested by President, and actually accused him of striving for dictatorship.

I found myself wondering what the Ukrainians were thinking. Perhaps their President was channelling Baron Highridge who obstructed peace negotiations to keep himself in power or the Haven Legislaturists that launch THE SHORT VICTORIOUS WAR to keep themselves in power.

However; obstructing the straight is obviously a ploy by Russia to screw Ukraine. Any chance that the Ukrainian territories on the Sea of Azov are majority ethnic Russian or very large majority ethnic Russian? I see another annexation coming.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
I found myself wondering what the Ukrainians were thinking.

It's rather simple: Poroshenko is VERY unpopular in Ukraine, and was sure to lose the spring elections. But if he declare national-wide emergency, he would have a lot of time to kill, imprison or scare his opponents and hide all his nefarious deeds under "wartime secrecy".

Obviously Ukrainian parliament suspect exactly that, because they refused to agree on proposed 60-day emergency and allowed only a 30-day emergency & fixed election date. The fact that Poroshenko readily agreed on his "vital measures" being cut to half basically said for itself: there is NO "vital emergency", just the bluff do declare one.

However; obstructing the straight is obviously a ploy by Russia to screw Ukraine.

Sigh. Imagine a situation: unannounced Iranian warships are trying to traverse Hampton-Roads & get into Chesapeake Bay without asking permission. If US Coast Guard would stop them you - would you protest and claim that "USA is just trying to screw the Iran"?

For some reason, I doubt that...

Dilandu wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
I found myself wondering what the Ukrainians were thinking.

It's rather simple: Poroshenko is VERY unpopular in Ukraine, and was sure to lose the spring elections. But if he declare national-wide emergency, he would have a lot of time to kill, imprison or scare his opponents and hide all his nefarious deeds under "wartime secrecy".

Obviously Ukrainian parliament suspect exactly that, because they refused to agree on proposed 60-day emergency and allowed only a 30-day emergency & fixed election date. The fact that Poroshenko readily agreed on his "vital measures" being cut to half basically said for itself: there is NO "vital emergency", just the bluff do declare one.

However; obstructing the straight is obviously a ploy by Russia to screw Ukraine.

Sigh. Imagine a situation: unannounced Iranian warships are trying to traverse Hampton-Roads & get into Chesapeake Bay without asking permission. If US Coast Guard would stop them you - would you protest and claim that "USA is just trying to screw the Iran"?

For some reason, I doubt that...

I would point out that Ukraine has territory bordering the sea of Azov with two of their few remaing ports. It is my understanding that Ukraine has an internalitionally recognized right of passage through the straight just as Russia has an internationally recognized right of passage through the Straights of Tirkey under the Treaty of Lausanne?

A better analogy would be Iran closing the Straight of Harmoz to Saudia Arabian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi shipping. This United States might not take kindly to such action but would send more than just a couple of riverine patrol boats armed with 30 mm cannon.

Now popping pop corn to eat while awaiting develplments,

No will Turkey use this incident as justification to close the Turkish straights to Russia?

Now Merkel is threatening Putin with her weapons of mass distraction.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46386160