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Guns, Guns Guns

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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 12:28 am

PeterZ
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Posts: 6432
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm
Location: Colorado

Daryl,

If your government abuses their authority badly enough, of course you would consider overturning it. My point is that the authority is your government's to exercise and has been. The authority of the US government starts from its citizens. As a practical matter it might make no difference. The term you used was not accurate.

As for your opinion of our system. It tends to illustrate how the best government governs least. All those great things our society achieved was done more by individual effort than a government effort/program.

I don't believe our society is any more racist than yours. Both our nations have had issues treating racial/cultural minorities poorly. Not proud moments for sure. Yet, that sort of bigotry has declined in the US. Our passionate disagreements tend to fall on idiological lines. There are still bigots of all races here. Google "the knockouts game" or "polar bear hunting". I doubt that any society of humans will be free of all bigotry.

Regarding homicides here. Namelessfly is right on. Many of those people commiting those crimes are from generational welfare receiving
parents. Our welfare system has done far more harm than good.


Daryl wrote:I admit that some time ago I was ignorant regarding the US political system, however over the past few months well informed commenters here have provided plenty of well sorted information, so I think I have a reasonable understanding of it now. I'm still ignorant regarding how such a system has managed to survive into the 21st century. To me the question is not how badly the US system works, which is to be expected, but how it actually has succeeded in leading the strongest nation on earth?
To answer a couple of points raised. Technically the English Queen is our head of government, but, if you look into it, this actually ensures we don't really have onerous supervision. Poor old Betty is sensible enough to realise that if she tried to exercise any power we would tell her to go elsewhere and fornicate and then we'd become a republic. I want us to become a republic, but the main resistance to this is from people who worry that an elected president might actually have some power and want to use it.
As in all responsible democracies we have checks and balances to avoid letting our politicians have too much power. One big difference is that our constitution gives the national government power to pass laws overruling state laws. Just this week they did so to repeal gay marriage laws passed in one jurisdiction. Personally I think that action was wrong, but I know it was legal.
Another difference is that very few Australian citizens would think it was ethical or moral to consider overthrowing their elected government by armed force. I'd imagine that if they cancelled elections, ignored the constitution, and started acting dictatorially this would change, but it is not the default position of many people at all, as it appears to be in the US.
As to being ruled by our politicians, we do expect them to govern and make decisions on our behalf (even unpopular ones), but there is little deference or even respect. Politicians here are lumped in with used car salesmen, born again preachers, con men, and shonky tradesmen when it comes to surveys on trustworthiness. Being a smaller country enables us to have more access to our politicians, I've met all of the past six PMs.
The comments regarding how some of the high murder rate may be related to racial background is puzzling. Could this be that these groups are materially disadvantaged because of society's prejudices, and desperation leads to desperate acts? Plenty of research points to no genetic predisposition to violence difference exists between races, so it must be something else?
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by namelessfly   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:27 am

namelessfly

pokermind wrote:Back to gun control here's what the statistics show, murder rate over time with actions shown. Now try to explain how gun control lowers the murder rate?

Image

Poker


Everyone refer back to the graph Pokermind posted a few pages back of US homicide rates over time.

One factor that is almost universally ignored is that crime clearance rates and arrest rates suddenly imploded during the early 1960s. Back in the 1950s US police were no less adept at solving crimes and arresting a suspect than their counterparts in most Western democracies. However; during the early 1960s clearance rates and arrest rates declined to disgraceful levels. Within only a few short years arrest rates for murder went from >9/10 to about 2/3 of homicides. Arrest rates for murder are far lower if the victim is Black. It was as if the police declared open season on African Americans. The arrest rates for rape, robbery and assault also plummeted. Arrest rates for minor crimes became disgracefully low. At this same time arrests for drug offenses and prostitution soared, suggesting a sudden shift in police priorities.

The fact that the sudden surge in homicide rates that occurred in the 1960s and early 1970s lagged behind the drop in arrest rates is significant.

Equally significant is the fact that the percentage of murders committed with guns decreased during this murder surge from 2/3s to barely 1/2. It was during the 1980s and 1990s that the percentage of murders committed with guns rose again. The profound decrease in murder rates that has occurred during the 1990s and 2000s was accompanied by a slight increase in the percentage of murders committed with guns.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Spacekiwi   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:38 am

Spacekiwi
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Posts: 2634
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 3:08 am
Location: New Zealand

Big problem with this graph and your conclusion. It assumes one cause only, and it assumes effect occurs immediately after cause. I could just as easily use the case of lead posioning as the cause for the change in violent homicides in the US, as there is research showing a link, as opposed to just a graph.

R Nevin, Environ. Res., 2000, 83, 1

R Nevin, Environ. Res., 2007, 104, 315

H W Meilke, S Zahran, Environ. Intl., 2012, 43, 48

A B Hill, Proc. R. Soc. Med., 1965, 58, 295


Image


namelessfly wrote:
pokermind wrote:Back to gun control here's what the statistics show, murder rate over time with actions shown. Now try to explain how gun control lowers the murder rate?

Image

Poker


Everyone refer back to the graph Pokermind posted a few pages back of US homicide rates over time.

One factor that is almost universally ignored is that crime clearance rates and arrest rates suddenly imploded during the early 1960s. Back in the 1950s US police were no less adept at solving crimes and arresting a suspect than their counterparts in most Western democracies. However; during the early 1960s clearance rates and arrest rates declined to disgraceful levels. Within only a few short years arrest rates for murder went from >9/10 to about 2/3 of homicides. Arrest rates for murder are far lower if the victim is Black. It was as if the police declared open season on African Americans. The arrest rates for rape, robbery and assault also plummeted. Arrest rates for minor crimes became disgracefully low. At this same time arrests for drug offenses and prostitution soared, suggesting a sudden shift in police priorities.

The fact that the sudden surge in homicide rates that occurred in the 1960s and early 1970s lagged behind the drop in arrest rates is significant.

Equally significant is the fact that the percentage of murders committed with guns decreased during this murder surge from 2/3s to barely 1/2. It was during the 1980s and 1990s that the percentage of murders committed with guns rose again. The profound decrease in murder rates that has occurred during the 1990s and 2000s was accompanied by a slight increase in the percentage of murders committed with guns.
`
Image


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its not paranoia if its justified... :D
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by namelessfly   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:11 am

namelessfly

SpaceKiwi:

Thank you for making my major point for me.

Corellation is not cassation. The link between low arrest rates and high homice rates is validated by inter-jurisdictional comparisons both within the US and internationally. However; even if there is causation, that does not rule out other factors that contribute to homicide risk.

One can reach some very questionable conclusions by focusing to closely on certain correllations.

Just one example is the correlation between guns and suicide within the US. Most people jump to the conclusion that since guns are used in 2/3s of suicides in the US, guns cause suicide. However; a comparison of international suicide statistics reveals that the US has one of the lowest suicide rates in the industrialized world. A paucity of guns does not prevent suicide. Japan is the most extreme example.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Daryl   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 8:32 am

Daryl
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Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 1:57 am
Location: Queensland Australia

Lies, damn lies, and statistics. I remember a graph that compared the average length of women's skirts to frequency of earthquakes. Spot on over 50 years. Now, while having extremely short skirts around does tend to still move the earth for me, it is not plausible that it actually does it in terrestrial terms.
Regarding gun laws, a couple of conflicting points. As Heinlein (all hail) once said "The Code Duello may have been extreme, but it did ensure that the young aristocracy males were polite to each other". On the other hand I do remember my "cowboy" youth when always having a gun (carbine, hand gun in holster, or long rifle with scope) on hand, did enable me to make irrevocable decisions in short time frames. That's OK when encouraging some varmint to not attack your stock, less so in an urban environment.
Young men, alcohol, nitrocellulose, threats to their ego; bad mixture.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Invictus   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:24 am

Invictus
Commander

Posts: 215
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:00 am
Location: Perth, WA

PeterZ wrote:In the US, we rejected monarch's authority from our inception. We asserted our individual sovereignty and composed a social contract called our Constitution to organize how our society and government might be organized. United States Citizens hold the ultimate authority in our country, not the agents we elect to hold office.

It is our right and responsibility to toss out elected officials that overstep their Constitutional limits. Those office holders are our agents acting with power we lend them. They are NOT our rulers, no matter how they were elected. Representatives, presidents, senators and judges aren't the source of authority, not the office or the individuals that hold the office. We the people do.

It doesn't matter how many people vote for the group of representatives in power. They are limited in what they can do. When those representatives violate the citizens' constitutionally granted liberties, they break our social contract. That violation is the act of overthrowing legitimate authority. Tossing the bums out through elections or other more violent means is simply reasserting the legitimate authority.

If enough people don't like the current social contract, then change it. Until our Constitution is changed, our guns remain the ultimate tool to resist the usurpation of the US citizens' authority granted by our Constitution.


Wow. Where to begin...
Ok, the question that comes to mind is, If you truly believe that the persons in government should be restricted to the power laid out in the US constitution, why the hell haven't there ALREADY been rebellions? I can think of three cases right of the top of my head where members of congress and/or the Executive branch have twisted the US constitution into a pretzel, if not flat out ignored it!

1. The last time the US congress passed an actual declaration of war was in 1941, when it declared war on the Axis powers. Per Article 1 Section 8 of the US Constitution:
"The Congress shall have Power To ...To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;"

No where in there does it say the President can begin a war without the explicit consent of Congress. How's that working out?

2.
"Amendment IV:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."

Do I need to actually say anything here?

3."Amendment II
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

Kinda the whole point of this thread...

After reading the US constitution, it seems apparent to me that the only power over government it actually gives its citizens is the power to vote. And even that has fallen by the wayside. Ever hear of Gerrymandering? How is it a free and fair election when your election district is drawn up based on how you and your neighbours vote?

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charte ... cript.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

"When you talk about damage radius, even atomic weapons pale before that of an unfettered idiot in a position of power." Sam Starfall
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by namelessfly   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:41 am

namelessfly

You succeed in making my primary point that people who demand nationalized healthcare or gun control (especially in other people's country) are motivated more by a philosophical belief than any actual evidence to substantiate that belief. In your case, the gun control issue is primarily a pretext to validate your contempt and hostility to the US.

There is a very simple solution to your problem. Just don't leave your gun free paradise to come to the US, even to visit.

Daryl wrote:Lies, damn lies, and statistics. I remember a graph that compared the average length of women's skirts to frequency of earthquakes. Spot on over 50 years. Now, while having extremely short skirts around does tend to still move the earth for me, it is not plausible that it actually does it in terrestrial terms.
Regarding gun laws, a couple of conflicting points. As Heinlein (all hail) once said "The Code Duello may have been extreme, but it did ensure that the young aristocracy males were polite to each other". On the other hand I do remember my "cowboy" youth when always having a gun (carbine, hand gun in holster, or long rifle with scope) on hand, did enable me to make irrevocable decisions in short time frames. That's OK when encouraging some varmint to not attack your stock, less so in an urban environment.
Young men, alcohol, nitrocellulose, threats to their ego; bad mixture.
Top
Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:59 am

PeterZ
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 6432
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm
Location: Colorado

Thanks you for so elegantly illustrating these examples. That was very nicely said, Invictus.

These and more are the very reasons many in the US sound as if they would like to toss out all the representatives and begin with a new crop. Our Constitution has been walked all over for decades and many folks here would like to make sure our agents in government remember their limits.

That there haven't been rebellions already suggests that enough people believe we can pull back from these excesses without violence. Not sure if that opinion is right or wrong, but glad all of us are still trying peaceful.

Another interpretation is that too many don't recognize the severity of our problems. Deficit spending ad nauseam, the abandonment of our urban cores, disregard for our Constitution in oh so many ways, debasing our currency, regulating our economy into the crapper and fanning the flames of racial tensions will, all of it, exacerbate their fellow issues until even the most politically/socially blind will recognize these are problems.

The US is in for tough times. I hope not too much spills over on the rest of the world.

Invictus wrote:
Wow. Where to begin...
Ok, the question that comes to mind is, If you truly believe that the persons in government should be restricted to the power laid out in the US constitution, why the hell haven't there ALREADY been rebellions? I can think of three cases right of the top of my head where members of congress and/or the Executive branch have twisted the US constitution into a pretzel, if not flat out ignored it!

1. The last time the US congress passed an actual declaration of war was in 1941, when it declared war on the Axis powers. Per Article 1 Section 8 of the US Constitution:
"The Congress shall have Power To ...To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;"

No where in there does it say the President can begin a war without the explicit consent of Congress. How's that working out?

2.
"Amendment IV:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."

Do I need to actually say anything here?

3."Amendment II
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

Kinda the whole point of this thread...

After reading the US constitution, it seems apparent to me that the only power over government it actually gives its citizens is the power to vote. And even that has fallen by the wayside. Ever hear of Gerrymandering? How is it a free and fair election when your election district is drawn up based on how you and your neighbours vote?

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charte ... cript.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
Last edited by PeterZ on Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by namelessfly   » Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:06 am

namelessfly

I actually tend to agree with your point here.

We have allowed the government to get away with far, far to much.
Obama's welfare constiucency provides the votes to enable the abuses.
Fortunately; the abuses have not escalated to genocide, yet.
Many of us are tempted to revolt but cling to the perhaps forlorn hope that the abuses can be rectified with the ballot box rather than the bullet box.

Most of the abuses have occurred during the 3/4 century since the US abandoned isolationism to fight first the Nazis then the Cold War. This is why a growing percentage of Americans favor abandoning our entangling alliances.

I confess that the idea of one or more of the US' former allies in Europe, Australia, NZ or Canada being invaded, conquered, or even subjected to genocide while the US does nothing has a certain appeal. Would the arrogant, elitist snobs still critique the US for it's bloated military, past interventionism, and it's refusal to implement Nationalized healthcare or "sensible" gun laws while their women and children are being bayoneted in the streets and they are being herded into gas chambers? Such an invasion seems unlikely. However; natural disasters occur regularly. It would be amusing to observe the reaction if the Carrier Battle Groups and Amphibious Assault ships that are so resented just stood by and watched while the injured and endangered survivors that we could have saved, died.


Invictus wrote:
PeterZ wrote:In the US, we rejected monarch's authority from our inception. We asserted our individual sovereignty and composed a social contract called our Constitution to organize how our society and government might be organized. United States Citizens hold the ultimate authority in our country, not the agents we elect to hold office.

It is our right and responsibility to toss out elected officials that overstep their Constitutional limits. Those office holders are our agents acting with power we lend them. They are NOT our rulers, no matter how they were elected. Representatives, presidents, senators and judges aren't the source of authority, not the office or the individuals that hold the office. We the people do.

It doesn't matter how many people vote for the group of representatives in power. They are limited in what they can do. When those representatives violate the citizens' constitutionally granted liberties, they break our social contract. That violation is the act of overthrowing legitimate authority. Tossing the bums out through elections or other more violent means is simply reasserting the legitimate authority.

If enough people don't like the current social contract, then change it. Until our Constitution is changed, our guns remain the ultimate tool to resist the usurpation of the US citizens' authority granted by our Constitution.


Wow. Where to begin...
Ok, the question that comes to mind is, If you truly believe that the persons in government should be restricted to the power laid out in the US constitution, why the hell haven't there ALREADY been rebellions? I can think of three cases right of the top of my head where members of congress and/or the Executive branch have twisted the US constitution into a pretzel, if not flat out ignored it!

1. The last time the US congress passed an actual declaration of war was in 1941, when it declared war on the Axis powers. Per Article 1 Section 8 of the US Constitution:
"The Congress shall have Power To ...To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;"

No where in there does it say the President can begin a war without the explicit consent of Congress. How's that working out?

2.
"Amendment IV:
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized."

Do I need to actually say anything here?

3."Amendment II
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."

Kinda the whole point of this thread...

After reading the US constitution, it seems apparent to me that the only power over government it actually gives its citizens is the power to vote. And even that has fallen by the wayside. Ever hear of Gerrymandering? How is it a free and fair election when your election district is drawn up based on how you and your neighbours vote?

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charte ... cript.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
Top
Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Invictus   » Sat Dec 14, 2013 1:13 am

Invictus
Commander

Posts: 215
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:00 am
Location: Perth, WA

Former Allies?
Name one conflict in the last century where Australia hasn't been one of the first Allies to step up and help? Even when it wasn't popular? Check your goddamn facts.
namelessfly wrote:
I confess that the idea of one or more of the US' former allies in Europe, Australia, NZ or Canada being invaded, conquered, or even subjected to genocide while the US does nothing has a certain appeal. Would the arrogant, elitist snobs still critique the US for it's bloated military, past interventionism, and it's refusal to implement Nationalized healthcare or "sensible" gun laws while their women and children are being bayoneted in the streets and they are being herded into gas chambers? Such an invasion seems unlikely. However; natural disasters occur regularly. It would be amusing to observe the reaction if the Carrier Battle Groups and Amphibious Assault ships that are so resented just stood by and watched while the injured and endangered survivors that we could have saved, died.

"When you talk about damage radius, even atomic weapons pale before that of an unfettered idiot in a position of power." Sam Starfall
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