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Guns, Guns Guns

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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by biochem   » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:13 am

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PeterZ has an interesting hypothesis - population density in the USA correlates strongly with murder rates.

However, population densities in other countries (France for example) does not.

It's therefore unlikely to be population density per se that is the cause of the murder rates. More likely it is similar to the correlation between ice cream sales and murder rates (as ice cream sales increase so do murder rates). The underlying cause of both is good weather.

So what problem increases in high density zones in the US that also increases murder rates?

Brainstorming some ideas other than guns.....

1. Mental health - The US mental health system treats violent deranged people by giving them medication, telling them to come back for outpatient treatment and releasing them to live homeless on the streets.

2. Lead poisoning from left over from leaded gasoline smog of days gone by.

3. Criminal associates - with large population densities it's easier to find like minded felonious types and congregate together, using peer pressure to push one another to do more and more crime.

4. Police hating liberals run many big cities and the police feel unsupported and at personal risk, so they don't take the sometimes risky actions necessary to reduce crime.

5. A criminal culture was allowed to take root in days gone by and now it's a weed we can't seem to get rid of.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Invictus   » Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:04 pm

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Just a thought as far as France goes; unlike the US, they have been physically invaded twice in the last century. They were a main battleground in two world wars. That kind of death toll would surely cause some sort of scar tissue on the national psyche.

"When you talk about damage radius, even atomic weapons pale before that of an unfettered idiot in a position of power." Sam Starfall
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:15 pm

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biochem wrote:PeterZ has an interesting hypothesis - population density in the USA correlates strongly with murder rates.

However, population densities in other countries (France for example) does not.

It's therefore unlikely to be population density per se that is the cause of the murder rates. More likely it is similar to the correlation between ice cream sales and murder rates (as ice cream sales increase so do murder rates). The underlying cause of both is good weather.

So what problem increases in high density zones in the US that also increases murder rates?

Brainstorming some ideas other than guns.....

1. Mental health - The US mental health system treats violent deranged people by giving them medication, telling them to come back for outpatient treatment and releasing them to live homeless on the streets.

2. Lead poisoning from left over from leaded gasoline smog of days gone by.

3. Criminal associates - with large population densities it's easier to find like minded felonious types and congregate together, using peer pressure to push one another to do more and more crime.

4. Police hating liberals run many big cities and the police feel unsupported and at personal risk, so they don't take the sometimes risky actions necessary to reduce crime.

5. A criminal culture was allowed to take root in days gone by and now it's a weed we can't seem to get rid of.


I personally think your mental health hypothesis is the closest to the truth. The dismantling of our mental health hospital system under Carter released many people unable to cope well in society into the general public. That has some impact on murder rates.

Hear is another interesting factoid a friend sent my way.
http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Crime/Assault-victims

Of course from 2002 data so what is it worth?

Assault victims as a percentage of the population.
New Zealand 2.4%
Australia 2.4%
France 1.4%

US 1.2%

Since a murder victim is also an assault victim, is the US less safe than these other nations?

Let's consider other bits of data.

Rape victims as percent of population from that same dataset.
New Zealand- 1.3%
Australia- 1.0%
France- 0.7%
USA-0.4%

How about total crime victims as percent of population.
Australia- 30.1%
New Zealand- 29.4%
France- 21.4%
USA- 21.1%

Overall, I believe biochem has the right approach. Crime of all sorts is behavioral and addressing issues that impact behavior is a much better way to address crime than limiting the tools that a person has at their disposal to commit crime. This is especially true for those tools that have other utility than to facilitate crime.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Spacekiwi   » Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:31 pm

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Oh yeah is france screwed up in terms of crime. part of the reason my aunt now live here in NZ with my uncle. And what with the way things are going in france with tensions being deliberately stirred by some, and some other problems, and they arent doing so good. Suicide rate is also high, even today, due to high unenployment, and all the other leftover effects from 07-09, that other countries have gotten rid of, but france, portugal, spain, italy, greece etc all had problems with.

fair enough on the personal responsibility as well. I believe that instead of just sports, you should have a proper martial art taught at 13-16yrs as part of PE, proper in that it teaches the mental as well as physical, as martial arts could easily replace the hand eye co-ordination units, and teach self defense as well.

always good discussing with you. :)


thinkstoomuch wrote:
I was going to do a big research first line I saw in the first article ~21% of the French are victims of crime. Or some such. Decided I really didn’t want to know after that. All right I looked 29% of Americans have been victims. Largest category 8% computer fraud lets ban all computers. from a 2007 survey.http://www.gallup.com/poll/102658/US-Cr ... -Flat.aspx

Thing is which of these countries is going in which direction. Violent crime rate in the US cut in half since 1993 actual incidents going down by 1/3(http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/cr ... es/table-1). France everything I can find is going up. I'm not smart enough to find actual numbers. Lets model on somewhere that is going in the wrong direction.

Did you look at France's Suicide Rate. Holy Cow Batman.

France is about double the US for all but one age group,15-24.

Oh wait ... that link data is from 1990 (for suicide anyway rest vary).

But in the US you are according to Wiki(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... icide_rate) the rate for 2011 20.3 double that gun death rate. France's is 22.8.

Unless of course you go by this graph (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in ... -trend.jpg) then it is only ~10 in 2005. I think.

Did I ever mention that I dislike wiki rather intensely. Which data do I trust? (Oh by the way the link above is using wiki data.)

I all fairness I don't think suicide should be a crime. A shame but not a crime. Which of course gets into each person's or country's definitions. Which aren't the same.

My religion if you want is personal responsibility. What promotes it? What detracts from it?

Do I want some thug bouncing my head off a sidewalk or to be able to be vilified by the press for killing him? Yep I will take that second option. Though due to size I normally don't have to worry about that I am more likely to be considered the thug. Big GUY, looks to be in shape.

Or perhaps the two pizza delivery people recently in the news. One female works for Papa John's guy throws her on the ground points a gun at her. She reaches in her pocket and shoots him in the face. Didn't kill him though, damn it, police did arrest him. PAPA JOHN'S ISN'T firing her for protecting herself. Wish I ate more delivery pizza have a local Papa John's.

Or the other guy unarmed gets shoved in the trunk of his car for a joy ride(?) while the idiots try to ram his car into a gun store (poetic irony on the topic?). Perpetrators still at large.

People deserve to be able to demonstrate their idiocy or competence not have me get up on my pulpit and tell them what they can and can’t have. They need to learn that actions have consequences. I used to think the three laws of robotics were a wonderful thing. Any more they are the source of nightmares.

A reason why my only vehicle is a motorcycle, any idiot out there can kill me any time they want. My fault if they can do it though. I should have seen them coming. Plus it is good for the environment less than 1/4 of the resources used as a car better fuel mileage and more efficient.:-)

Which brings up another issue in my mind for all the crime stats. Ask the DMV or my insurance company I haven’t had an accident in this century. Ask me I have crashed my motorcycle somewhere north of 10 times not sure(does it count when I was on that ranch "road" in Montana mud looking like dry dirt . . . :o ). Get up duct tape pieces back together (if required) get bike home purchased/replace parts (if required). So how many like me for those crime stats? I don’t know.

I do know that comparing rape stats is more a function of many other things than how often it happens. Assault many of the same things are in there. Gun deaths pretty hard to cover up I do for the most part consider them accurate in the 1st world. I consider it a feature not a bug.

Have fun,
T2M

PS Still think it hilarious in a lot of ways that I seem to be one of the huge proponents for something I don’t own.
`
Image


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its not paranoia if its justified... :D
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by Daryl   » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:49 pm

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Definitions of various assaults vary from country to country. An example is that we list digital penetration as rape, while many list it as sexual abuse or assault. Apparently Egypt, most of the middle east and the "stans" have some of the lowest publically listed rape statistics of any country, which is obviously wrong.
Also Mexico has a low murder rate according to one set of stats.


Googling these stats from various sources also gives widely varying results, which are different to those quoted here.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Jan 22, 2015 1:21 am

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Yup. Making international comparisons is difficult as the definitions and data collection methodology vary. Perhaps widely enough to mislead.

Daryl wrote:Definitions of various assaults vary from country to country. An example is that we list digital penetration as rape, while many list it as sexual abuse or assault. Apparently Egypt, most of the middle east and the "stans" have some of the lowest publically listed rape statistics of any country, which is obviously wrong.
Also Mexico has a low murder rate according to one set of stats.


Googling these stats from various sources also gives widely varying results, which are different to those quoted here.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by MAD-4A   » Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:38 pm

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Daryl wrote:Apparently Egypt, most of the middle east and the "stans" have some of the lowest publically listed rape statistics of any country, which is obviously wrong.
Also Mexico has a low murder rate according to one set of stats.
Well, of-course any country under Islamic law would have very little cases of rape, as women aren't people & must have 2 male witnesses to bring up any charges on any man. & Mexico does have a low murder rate, when the whole place is owned by the criminals and they tell the government what constitutes a "murder".
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Almost only counts in Horseshoes and Nuclear Weapons. I almost got the Hand-Grenade out the window does not count.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by smr   » Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:52 am

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This is probably how the Obama administration is going to try to implement gun control and seizures. He will use executive orders saying he is complying with the UN laws that have not been ratified by the Senate. Is this the start of 2nd American revolution by die hard zealots of the Left?

http://www.newsmax.com/FastFeatures/un-guns-treaty-changes/2015/01/25/id/620223/
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by gcomeau   » Tue Jan 27, 2015 1:12 pm

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smr wrote:This is probably how the Obama administration is going to try to implement gun control and seizures. He will use executive orders saying he is complying with the UN laws that have not been ratified by the Senate. Is this the start of 2nd American revolution by die hard zealots of the Left?

http://www.newsmax.com/FastFeatures/un-guns-treaty-changes/2015/01/25/id/620223/


Oh joy, exactly what this thread needed. Crazy conspiracy theories based on absolutely nothing.



PeterZ wrote:Yup. Making international comparisons is difficult as the definitions and data collection methodology vary. Perhaps widely enough to mislead.


For assault, sure. Relatively subject to interpretation.

Less so for murder. Particularly when you're focusing on developed nations.


If guns by themselves caused higher murderer rates, the boundaries of control you are so in love with wouldn't matter. Where are are more guns there will be higher rates of murderer within the US. That data isn't supported.


That data isn't reliably AVAILABLE. Because guns can travel freely with no checks whatsoever between different regions. So you don't have any accurate idea whatsoever about the real "presence of guns" in any given area of the country.


Because......?

NO BOUNDARIES.
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Re: Guns, Guns Guns
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Jan 27, 2015 3:44 pm

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Gcomeau,

If guns cause murders, then more murders will occur in proximity to guns. To assert that the lack of boundaries means the proximity of guns is irrelevant to the local murderer rate of a local area yet still hold that guns cause muders is to assume a gun owned in Los Angeles contributes equally to LA murder rate as it does to New York murder rates. Data supporting this position has yet to be presented.

If a direct proximity relationship exists, the there WILL be a strong positive correlation between per capital murderer rate in the local area and the percentage of gun ownership in that same area. The degree of influence might vary with distance, but a strong positive correlation would be observed berween those two stats. The data suggests no such relationship.

The data at hand suggest no relationship between percentage of gun ownership and murders per capital within the US.

Until you show that guns owned in LA cause as many local NY murders as local LA murders, your assertion amounts to nothing but wishfull thinking.
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