OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:No, that was probably not the case. They would indeed have swapped with Home Fleet and reinforced Home. Tenth Fleet is another story. We still don't know if the squadrons of SD(P)s that Gold Peak has are Apollo-capable, since they haven't done anything useful yet (the liberation of the Madras sector was entirely done with ships below the wall).

We do actually know that they are definitely NOT Apollo capable. After Oyster Bay her ammunition ships full of Apollo pods were recalled to Manticore because she didn't have any ships that could really use them anyway. They'd shipped her the missiles planning that she'd get some Apollo ships eventually but she never did.

Galactic Sapper wrote:We do actually know that they are definitely NOT Apollo capable. After Oyster Bay her ammunition ships full of Apollo pods were recalled to Manticore because she didn't have any ships that could really use them anyway. They'd shipped her the missiles planning that she'd get some Apollo ships eventually but she never did.

The SD(P) squadrons were turned around en-route and sent back to be part of Home Fleet IIRC, along with their logistics tail.

Star Knight wrote:@kzt
Why do you disagree, because they brought ammunition ships along? This too would have been possible in a hypothetical offensive in the Fall of 1921.

I completely misunderstood what you were saying.

@ThinksMarkedly

Sorry, but the First Lord's job is to be the Queen's voice and intermediary to the Space Lords and the rest of the military. Caparelli should have given White Haven the menu of options for him to brief the Queen on, so the fact that there was nothing was his and Givens' failing. Though I will (continue to) agree that Tom and Pat should have been in the meeting discussing those options with the Queen, not the Cabinet.

Historically the First Lord did not act as an intermediary between the Space Lord and the civilian leadership. During the first war, Caparelli always had access to the PM or Queen when necessary.
He also can’t be blamed for not briefing White Haven before the fateful cabinet meeting. He simply had no reason to assume the Queen and White Haven would turn the meeting in a strategy session and make military decisions without consulting him.
This is entirely on White Haven. He should have deferred to the authority of the First Space Lord in operational matters when the Queen asks for military action.

I do not believe it would have put enough pressure. As much as Haven could absorb those blows, they wouldn't want to. So Theisman would have mounted punitive expeditions in Alliance systems, of which there were fewer. He would have activated Camille instead of Beatrice, sending 48 SD(P)s to take Alizon. The Alliance would have had to respond to that.

Well if this is your conclusion you should argue for no attack at all, not an attack on Lovat. If you fear reprisal attacks, the last thing you want to do is attacking a major target.
I would counsel to do nothing anyway since Manticore just needs to run down the clock until Apollo gets deployed. I’m fully prepared to have Theisman make the next move. Whatever he is coming up with, it won’t be a decisive blow.
And since the Admiralty has pushed a hell of a lot of wallers to secondary alliance members (a move I very much not agree with), the RMN would be prepared to fight where ever Theisman decides to show up.

The problem with what Theisman demonstrated is that the Alliance did not get the message. If they had, they would have gone back to the negotiating table, which was Pritchart's desired outcome. And as he explained to Pritchart, they had much more depth to absorb than the Alliance did: he would continue upping the tempo and escalating until Manticore negotiated or surrendered. He would not, under any circumstance, allow the war to drag on until the python lump and Andermani refits became operational.

Gobi happened before the talks, so they did get to the negotiating table.
But anyway, Theisman was not in a position to force the issue before the Andermani refits became operational. Before the majority of the phyton, lump becomes operational, sure, but in his mind, the Andermani wallers were very much already available and he was wondering why they hadn’t turned up yet.
So sure, while he was preparing for a major offensive at some point in the future (say early 1922), he had no reason to pull the trigger in July 1921 without the reveal of Apollo.
If Manticore hadn’t attacked Lovat and just sent a note telling them the summit is canceled and there won’t be more talks, Theisman would have attacked Alizon. After which (no matter the outcome there) Manticore would have enough Apollo wallers and system defense pods in commission to mount a decisive offensive. You probably don’t go immediately for Haven but hit Jouett or even Lovat first, but the point is, with the Apollo system defense pods, it doesn’t matter one bit if Theisman still manages to mount a counter-attack on Manticore itself. He checkmates, no matter what.
And again, the window of vulnerability was comically small after the summit talks collapsed. A mere six weeks would have been enough for Apollo defenses getting online at Manticore. If the battle there happened two or three weeks later, chances are the RHN would have been blown out of the sky be the Sphinx defenses alone.
It’s very much not like Manticore would have been vulnerable for many months up to 1922 if they didn’t keep Haven from mounting a decisive attack. No, it was just a question of maybe two to three tmonths more from the point the talks collapsed. Unfortunately, White Haven didn’t get this at all.

Which is of course absurd. You don't fight a war holding yourself back. So the Alliance should have asked itself why Theisman was holding himself back. If he had 600 SD(P)s, why wasn't he using that? He could have dropped in the MBS with about 150 SD(P)s in early 1921 and forced the negotiation.
Since they were not entirely incompetent, we must conclude they assumed that Theisman couldn't have attacked then. He was still building his forces out of Bolthole and upgrading the other shipyards (which was true). That being the case, they would have to allow for Theisman upping the tempo and escalating as new construction became available and worked up.

But that’s the thing. Theisman very much could have pushed more aggressively. He was very much unwilling to fully capitalize on his advantage and played his hand extremely conservatively. In part because time was very much in his favor. His numerical advantage was still growing for at least another year. And in part, because he simply didn’t want to. He wasn’t in this war for outright military victory, he was in this war to force Manticore into honest negotiations. He had no desire to blow up hundreds of wallers on both sides in the Manticore system to get their attention.
So again, it’s simply inconceivable to assume Theisman would radically shift his stance without a decisive change of the overall strategic picture.

One more problem that's just occurred to me: if the assumption is that the Havenites sabotaged the talks, then they had to know they were going to do so. That means Theisman could have prepared to attack while the Alliance was distracted. The Alliance couldn't afford to repeat the same strategy which had failed at Solon.

I’d actually agree with that assumption, but White Haven and the Queen sure don’t. White Haven explicitly says that he is very confident, Eighth Fleet can get out hit Lovat and get back before Theisman could respond.
The thought that Theisman might be already prepared to strike since he sabotaged the talks never crossed his mind.
But if it had, the only sane thing to do would be to keep Honor at home and not attack Lovat.

In your text above, we see "all our new construction is being altered on the ways to be Keyhole II-capable." If the Invictus as-designed was Keyhole II-capable, why would it need to be altered? I don't think this referred to Medusa hulls that were in construction at the end of the First War and halted. Those would have been much further along in construction and would have finished sooner after the emergency restart.

I don’t know. The text clearly says als Invictus class SDPs can operate Keyhole 2 without a refit since they are built with Keyhole 1 from the get-go.
If you don’t agree with that the text would also say that they are altering all present construction to include Keyhole 2.
Either way, every Manticoran waller coming out of the yards would be Apollo capable. Which was my point.

The quote probably refers to Medusa SDPs in the python lump, Battlecruisers or something. Maybe he mend Keyhole pod construction itself.
Or it’s an editing issue. AAC could have used a lot of work.

Another problem is that we know they weren't ready for a Fall offensive (note: seasons are probably not a good reference in space; it's already not a good reference on Earth). Oyster Bay was hoping to catch them still in the shipyards. MAlign intel was faulty and they weren't in the yards, but it wasn't by much, a couple of months at most. So the ships actually became available around the end of 1921.
A year after Solon.

'Them' as in what? The original 35+x or the Phyton lump?
Textev from AAC, from the only meeting Caparelli, had with the Queen:

After what they did to Grendelsbane, we have only thirty-five SD(P)s under construction. They should be commissioned within the next six to ten months, but we won't see any more than that until the ships we're laying down right this minute commission. This means our total available pod-laying wall will consist of no more than a hundred and ten units for at least another two T-years."

The meeting happened in early 1920.
I hesitate to bring this up because it’s a clear oversight by the author. Those 35 SDPs should have been available at Manticore. Just like a hell of a lot of other wallers, conventional SDs and players. AAC is just a terrible book in that regard, authorial fiat reigns supreme in the last battle.

In any case, they would have been available for an offensive in September – November 1921 and they were Apollo capable.
There is also textual evidence than some of the python lump ships left the yards in at least November 1921, possibly October. They were not combat-ready at that point though and it would take at least a couple of weeks to get them ready. Even if you’d switch crews one for one from Home and Third Fleet.

Thus I’m not counting on those when i talk about a Fall 1921 offensive in a universe without the Battle of Manticore. I’m saying that the 50 to a maximum 100 Apollo wallers that would have been ready till September to November 1921 are more than enough to successfully attack the Haven system. More so if they are supported by additional conventional SDs, older podlayers and Battlecruisers.

Galactic Sapper wrote:And more importantly, to Star Knight's dismay, Sanskrit was planned by the Admiralty specifically to uncork Apollo on the Havenites. Caparelli and the Strategy Board had already approved it. It was not White Haven driving the decision at all.

Another point is that the launching of the operation had to be done in consultation with the allies, at least Grayson and the Andermani. Admiral Judah Yanakov, future High Admiral, was the CO of TF 82. It stands to reason he agreed with the operation, or his nominal superior (High Admiral Wesley, at the time) did. Ditto for Tom Caparelli: he had a chance to voice his concern if he thought the operation was ill-advised.

He may be shy going against White Haven and Harrington, but he never struck me as someone to stay quiet if he had serious enough concerns.

Star Knight wrote:This is entirely on White Haven. He should have deferred to the authority of the First Space Lord in operational matters when the Queen asks for military action.

I agree, but with the Queen angry as she was, he would have told her of the options he already knew of. That there was only of relevant one speaks of how the Alliance planners had managed so far. And as I wrote above, after getting his marching orders, he'd have convened with Caparelli, Wesley or Yanakov and Rabestrange to decide how to implement it. The Queen had no authority to make the decision for the Alliance -- at the time, the RMN wasn't contributing the most Apollo-capable ships, or even the most ships at all.

So I agree that it was inappropriate, but that had little consequence as such. If White Haven had postponed and had the Queen meet with the Joint Chiefs, what would they have told her?

I do not believe it would have put enough pressure. As much as Haven could absorb those blows, they wouldn't want to. So Theisman would have mounted punitive expeditions in Alliance systems, of which there were fewer. He would have activated Camille instead of Beatrice, sending 48 SD(P)s to take Alizon. The Alliance would have had to respond to that.

Well if this is your conclusion you should argue for no attack at all, not an attack on Lovat. If you fear reprisal attacks, the last thing you want to do is attacking a major target.
I would counsel to do nothing anyway since Manticore just needs to run down the clock until Apollo gets deployed. I’m fully prepared to have Theisman make the next move. Whatever he is coming up with, it won’t be a decisive blow.
And since the Admiralty has pushed a hell of a lot of wallers to secondary alliance members (a move I very much not agree with), the RMN would be prepared to fight where ever Theisman decides to show up.

You can't do nothing. The First Rule of Spacae Warfare: don't let the enemy dictate where action will occur.

The whole point of the Operations Cutworm so far had been to keep the RHN from massing its hundreds of SD(P)s for an offensive. That Theisman wouldn't have done so is irrelevant, since the Alliance had no crystal ball giving them insights into the Havenite government. So suspending all operations is as bad as continuing with ineffective operations.

I fully agree that running the clock until more Apollo became avialable would have been preferable. I'm arguing that this option was not on the table. Doing nothing or attacking tertiary targets would have freed the RHN to mass for bigger attacks. Attacking systems of the level of Solon would have gutted Eighth Fleet, draining the sparse force levels the Alliance had and killing sailors for little gain.

Gobi happened before the talks, so they did get to the negotiating table.
But anyway, Theisman was not in a position to force the issue before the Andermani refits became operational. Before the majority of the phyton, lump becomes operational, sure, but in his mind, the Andermani wallers were very much already available and he was wondering why they hadn’t turned up yet.

Chapter 54, when Theisman briefs Pritchart on Camille and Beatrice (I reread it yesterday) shows that he was fearing the Andermani. There were about 120 SD(P)s unaccounted for, which is the reason that Beatrice called for 336 SD(P)S out of the nearly 600 the RHN had, but not more. Pritchart asked him about that. His intel also said there was a technical problem with the refits, but he didn't seem to be basing his plans on that eventuality.

Side note: at the time, RHN also had about 300 older SDs, for a total of 900 superdreadnoughts. Talk about a powerhouse!

So sure, while he was preparing for a major offensive at some point in the future (say early 1922), he had no reason to pull the trigger in July 1921 without the reveal of Apollo.

Operation Beatrice was one of the two that he decided to brief Pritchart on after the Torch talks collapsed, before Apollo was revealed. He was ready to pull the trigger in mid to late 1921, just depending on what the Alliance did.

That it was Apollo and the war was effectively over one way or the other only made the decision easier.

If Manticore hadn’t attacked Lovat and just sent a note telling them the summit is canceled and there won’t be more talks, Theisman would have attacked Alizon. After which (no matter the outcome there) Manticore would have enough Apollo wallers and system defense pods in commission to mount a decisive offensive. You probably don’t go immediately for Haven but hit Jouett or even Lovat first, but the point is, with the Apollo system defense pods, it doesn’t matter one bit if Theisman still manages to mount a counter-attack on Manticore itself. He checkmates, no matter what.

I don't think Theisman would have allowed enough time to pass. I'm sure he had no idea what danger he was in and that his timelines were wrong.

But let's say that the Alliance had had time to deploy more Apollos. What systems do they go for? You said above to hit Jouet, not Haven. If they did that, Theisman would have activated Beatrice anyway. Any system except Haven would have called for Beatrice because the intel he would have had would not have changed. And if Eighth Fleet had enough firepower after Jouet or Lovat, it might be on sortie instead of working more up and not been able to respond to the invasion of Manticore.

Attacking Haven would have required an even bigger Eighth Fleet, undepleted from further being trapped in Cutworm attacks like that which caused Gold Peak's capture. The time required to make an Eighth Fleet capable of taking Haven and holding it against the 400 SD(P) storm coming its way to liberate it would have been too great.

And again, the window of vulnerability was comically small after the summit talks collapsed. A mere six weeks would have been enough for Apollo defenses getting online at Manticore. If the battle there happened two or three weeks later, chances are the RHN would have been blown out of the sky be the Sphinx defenses alone.

Agreed, but the RMN and the Alliance did hold as it was. As the discussion earlier in this thread showed, if not for D'Orville's and Kuzak's mistakes, Honor would have had to do nothing but mop up. They were already sufficient as they were. More protection is always better, but you can't wait forever.

But that’s the thing. Theisman very much could have pushed more aggressively. He was very much unwilling to fully capitalize on his advantage and played his hand extremely conservatively. In part because time was very much in his favor. His numerical advantage was still growing for at least another year. And in part, because he simply didn’t want to. He wasn’t in this war for outright military victory, he was in this war to force Manticore into honest negotiations. He had no desire to blow up hundreds of wallers on both sides in the Manticore system to get their attention.
So again, it’s simply inconceivable to assume Theisman would radically shift his stance without a decisive change of the overall strategic picture.

We know Theisman could have upped the tempo, but neither he nor Pritchart wanted to. The Manties and the Allience did not know that. Since they rejected the possibility that he was holding back, the remaining conclusion was that he couldn't up the tempo.

And you don't fight a war to a stalemate. Once you're in it, you have to be in it to win. While the RHN had the superiority, they could afford to parry the Alliance attacks, but at some point they would have to go for the jugular. That was the Alliance's worry, whether they had understood why Theisman wasn't upping the tempo or not.

I’d actually agree with that assumption, but White Haven and the Queen sure don’t. White Haven explicitly says that he is very confident, Eighth Fleet can get out hit Lovat and get back before Theisman could respond.
The thought that Theisman might be already prepared to strike since he sabotaged the talks never crossed his mind.

I'm sure it did. I would have concluded that Theisman had to hold enough forces back because the Alliance might come and attack. If they did nothing, then Theisman would be able to move sufficient forces to mount such an attack.

Which, turns out, he was doing. Pritchart did instruct him to prepare for Beatrice if it came to it, right after the talks collapsed and before the Battle of Lovat.

I don’t know. The text clearly says als Invictus class SDPs can operate Keyhole 2 without a refit since they are built with Keyhole 1 from the get-go.
If you don’t agree with that the text would also say that they are altering all present construction to include Keyhole 2.
Either way, every Manticoran waller coming out of the yards would be Apollo capable. Which was my point.

This is not really explained. One theory could be that it was the building of the Keyhole II itself. It had the size of a small destroyer, so it's a non-trivial build by itself. The electronics on the mothership also need to be swapped, most likely.

And yes, all the new construction was being altered to come off the assembly line with Keyhole II.

'Them' as in what? The original 35+x or the Phyton lump?
Textev from AAC, from the only meeting Caparelli, had with the Queen:

After what they did to Grendelsbane, we have only thirty-five SD(P)s under construction. They should be commissioned within the next six to ten months, but we won't see any more than that until the ships we're laying down right this minute commission. This means our total available pod-laying wall will consist of no more than a hundred and ten units for at least another two T-years."

The meeting happened in early 1920.
I hesitate to bring this up because it’s a clear oversight by the author. Those 35 SDPs should have been available at Manticore. Just like a hell of a lot of other wallers, conventional SDs and players. AAC is just a terrible book in that regard, authorial fiat reigns supreme in the last battle.
In any case, they would have been available for an offensive in September – November 1921 and they were Apollo capable.

What if they were, but most weren't Keyhole II-capable? In any case, most of those 35 hulls had to be Medusas, with just a few Invictus. We know at least three were available: HMS Invictus, HMS Imperator and HMS Intolerant. And note how none of the three was Apollo-capable.

There is also textual evidence than some of the python lump ships left the yards in at least November 1921, possibly October. They were not combat-ready at that point though and it would take at least a couple of weeks to get them ready. Even if you’d switch crews one for one from Home and Third Fleet.

Thus I’m not counting on those when i talk about a Fall 1921 offensive in a universe without the Battle of Manticore. I’m saying that the 50 to a maximum 100 Apollo wallers that would have been ready till September to November 1921 are more than enough to successfully attack the Haven system. More so if they are supported by additional conventional SDs, older podlayers and Battlecruisers.

I think your count is too high and still too late. We do know that Python Lump ships left the yards in October/November 1921 (to the MAlign's chagrin), which means they'd have been available for operations in late December at the earliest. As I've argued above, that's too late.

It's also too little to attack Haven itself, which was the only option that could have prevented Operation Beatrice from launching in the first place.

Star Knight wrote:@ThinksMarkedly

Sorry, but the First Lord's job is to be the Queen's voice and intermediary to the Space Lords and the rest of the military. Caparelli should have given White Haven the menu of options for him to brief the Queen on, so the fact that there was nothing was his and Givens' failing. Though I will (continue to) agree that Tom and Pat should have been in the meeting discussing those options with the Queen, not the Cabinet.

Historically the First Lord did not act as an intermediary between the Space Lord and the civilian leadership. During the first war, Caparelli always had access to the PM or Queen when necessary.
He also can’t be blamed for not briefing White Haven before the fateful cabinet meeting. He simply had no reason to assume the Queen and White Haven would turn the meeting in a strategy session and make military decisions without consulting him.
This is entirely on White Haven. He should have deferred to the authority of the First Space Lord in operational matters when the Queen asks for military action.

I do not believe it would have put enough pressure. As much as Haven could absorb those blows, they wouldn't want to. So Theisman would have mounted punitive expeditions in Alliance systems, of which there were fewer. He would have activated Camille instead of Beatrice, sending 48 SD(P)s to take Alizon. The Alliance would have had to respond to that.

Well if this is your conclusion you should argue for no attack at all, not an attack on Lovat. If you fear reprisal attacks, the last thing you want to do is attacking a major target.
I would counsel to do nothing anyway since Manticore just needs to run down the clock until Apollo gets deployed. I’m fully prepared to have Theisman make the next move. Whatever he is coming up with, it won’t be a decisive blow.
And since the Admiralty has pushed a hell of a lot of wallers to secondary alliance members (a move I very much not agree with), the RMN would be prepared to fight where ever Theisman decides to show up.

The problem with what Theisman demonstrated is that the Alliance did not get the message. If they had, they would have gone back to the negotiating table, which was Pritchart's desired outcome. And as he explained to Pritchart, they had much more depth to absorb than the Alliance did: he would continue upping the tempo and escalating until Manticore negotiated or surrendered. He would not, under any circumstance, allow the war to drag on until the python lump and Andermani refits became operational.

Gobi happened before the talks, so they did get to the negotiating table.
But anyway, Theisman was not in a position to force the issue before the Andermani refits became operational. Before the majority of the phyton, lump becomes operational, sure, but in his mind, the Andermani wallers were very much already available and he was wondering why they hadn’t turned up yet.
So sure, while he was preparing for a major offensive at some point in the future (say early 1922), he had no reason to pull the trigger in July 1921 without the reveal of Apollo.
If Manticore hadn’t attacked Lovat and just sent a note telling them the summit is canceled and there won’t be more talks, Theisman would have attacked Alizon. After which (no matter the outcome there) Manticore would have enough Apollo wallers and system defense pods in commission to mount a decisive offensive. You probably don’t go immediately for Haven but hit Jouett or even Lovat first, but the point is, with the Apollo system defense pods, it doesn’t matter one bit if Theisman still manages to mount a counter-attack on Manticore itself. He checkmates, no matter what.
And again, the window of vulnerability was comically small after the summit talks collapsed. A mere six weeks would have been enough for Apollo defenses getting online at Manticore. If the battle there happened two or three weeks later, chances are the RHN would have been blown out of the sky be the Sphinx defenses alone.
It’s very much not like Manticore would have been vulnerable for many months up to 1922 if they didn’t keep Haven from mounting a decisive attack. No, it was just a question of maybe two to three tmonths more from the point the talks collapsed. Unfortunately, White Haven didn’t get this at all.

Which is of course absurd. You don't fight a war holding yourself back. So the Alliance should have asked itself why Theisman was holding himself back. If he had 600 SD(P)s, why wasn't he using that? He could have dropped in the MBS with about 150 SD(P)s in early 1921 and forced the negotiation.
Since they were not entirely incompetent, we must conclude they assumed that Theisman couldn't have attacked then. He was still building his forces out of Bolthole and upgrading the other shipyards (which was true). That being the case, they would have to allow for Theisman upping the tempo and escalating as new construction became available and worked up.

But that’s the thing. Theisman very much could have pushed more aggressively. He was very much unwilling to fully capitalize on his advantage and played his hand extremely conservatively. In part because time was very much in his favor. His numerical advantage was still growing for at least another year. And in part, because he simply didn’t want to. He wasn’t in this war for outright military victory, he was in this war to force Manticore into honest negotiations. He had no desire to blow up hundreds of wallers on both sides in the Manticore system to get their attention.
So again, it’s simply inconceivable to assume Theisman would radically shift his stance without a decisive change of the overall strategic picture.

One more problem that's just occurred to me: if the assumption is that the Havenites sabotaged the talks, then they had to know they were going to do so. That means Theisman could have prepared to attack while the Alliance was distracted. The Alliance couldn't afford to repeat the same strategy which had failed at Solon.

I’d actually agree with that assumption, but White Haven and the Queen sure don’t. White Haven explicitly says that he is very confident, Eighth Fleet can get out hit Lovat and get back before Theisman could respond.
The thought that Theisman might be already prepared to strike since he sabotaged the talks never crossed his mind.
But if it had, the only sane thing to do would be to keep Honor at home and not attack Lovat.

In your text above, we see "all our new construction is being altered on the ways to be Keyhole II-capable." If the Invictus as-designed was Keyhole II-capable, why would it need to be altered? I don't think this referred to Medusa hulls that were in construction at the end of the First War and halted. Those would have been much further along in construction and would have finished sooner after the emergency restart.

I don’t know. The text clearly says als Invictus class SDPs can operate Keyhole 2 without a refit since they are built with Keyhole 1 from the get-go.
If you don’t agree with that the text would also say that they are altering all present construction to include Keyhole 2.
Either way, every Manticoran waller coming out of the yards would be Apollo capable. Which was my point.

The quote probably refers to Medusa SDPs in the python lump, Battlecruisers or something. Maybe he mend Keyhole pod construction itself.
Or it’s an editing issue. AAC could have used a lot of work.

Another problem is that we know they weren't ready for a Fall offensive (note: seasons are probably not a good reference in space; it's already not a good reference on Earth). Oyster Bay was hoping to catch them still in the shipyards. MAlign intel was faulty and they weren't in the yards, but it wasn't by much, a couple of months at most. So the ships actually became available around the end of 1921.
A year after Solon.

'Them' as in what? The original 35+x or the Phyton lump?
Textev from AAC, from the only meeting Caparelli, had with the Queen:

After what they did to Grendelsbane, we have only thirty-five SD(P)s under construction. They should be commissioned within the next six to ten months, but we won't see any more than that until the ships we're laying down right this minute commission. This means our total available pod-laying wall will consist of no more than a hundred and ten units for at least another two T-years."

The meeting happened in early 1920.
I hesitate to bring this up because it’s a clear oversight by the author. Those 35 SDPs should have been available at Manticore. Just like a hell of a lot of other wallers, conventional SDs and players. AAC is just a terrible book in that regard, authorial fiat reigns supreme in the last battle.

In any case, they would have been available for an offensive in September – November 1921 and they were Apollo capable.
There is also textual evidence than some of the python lump ships left the yards in at least November 1921, possibly October. They were not combat-ready at that point though and it would take at least a couple of weeks to get them ready. Even if you’d switch crews one for one from Home and Third Fleet.

Thus I’m not counting on those when i talk about a Fall 1921 offensive in a universe without the Battle of Manticore. I’m saying that the 50 to a maximum 100 Apollo wallers that would have been ready till September to November 1921 are more than enough to successfully attack the Haven system. More so if they are supported by additional conventional SDs, older podlayers and Battlecruisers.

Please site the Keyhole II / Invictus comparability text. KH II platform is 120 ktons vs ~60 ktons for KH 1, and requires 75 kton extra computing space. All Invictus were completed KH 1, but David has always stressed the KH II difficulty.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I think your count is too high and still too late. We do know that Python Lump ships left the yards in October/November 1921 (to the MAlign's chagrin), which means they'd have been available for operations in late December at the earliest. As I've argued above, that's too late.

It's also too little to attack Haven itself, which was the only option that could have prevented Operation Beatrice from launching in the first place.

You are forgetting working up time. This is usually 3-6 months of shakedown, training, and squadron maneuvers. They would be good for defensive use during this period, but not reliable for offensive use.

In reality, they probably didn't start being ready for operations until just after Oyster Bay.

Also, it appears they didn't all complete the "same day", but over a period of 2-3 months. So some would have been ready much sooner than others, changing the stratgic Calculus for awhile. The Manty command might not want to repeat mistakes, and rush forward when insufficient defensive wallers with Apollo were available.

Incredible discussions raging here. Talk about peering under the skirt of a topic. You guys are perverts. LOL

You certainly made me see a lot of things differently. After refreshing my memory a bit, I was correct that Honor was used in Cutworm to hide the RMN's weakness. Sanskrit hit a financially unstable Haven hard in the pocket and all the RMNs operations were supposed to seize the initiative and keep the Peeps off balance.

Consider that a mismanaged Peep government and an off balance navy were starting to get themselves back on balance. That's why they tore a strip off Honor's hide in Cutworm. It was that sweet Shannon Foraker playing with her toys. I think Eighth Fleet's plan worked rather well, considering that Shannon always managed to stay in shouting distance of Sonja, even though she was always reacting. Contemplate what would have happened if Shannon had been given a year or more to tinker, unmolested, while the RMN awaited it's ducks to line up. Nobody wanted to give Foraker that kind of time. Oops.

On the subject of Hamish sticking his nose where it didn't belong. Remember, he was still, arguably, the second best commander the RMN had. Second only to his wife, who everyone assumed discussed tactics and strategy with him. They probably assumed his input was Honor's by proxy. I certainly assumed that. Eisenhower didn't have any problem listening to Halsey, though McCarthur was a bit of a hothead.

I'm not saying it was the correct thing to do, but I can certainly understand wading in the water of that particular knowledge pool.

Also, I thought it was a little of Hamish not wanting to get Honor killed. I'm sure what happened at Solon sobered the RMN. Henke captured and a strip torn out of the Salamander's hide.

Also, the targets Hamish suggested might have been a bit of him protecting his wife, another example of why certain regs exist.

Anyways, thanks for the incredible view under the skir– ... um, skin. After all, I did ask for the spoiled beans in AAC.

I still think AAC is an incredible book.

Theemile wrote:Please site the Keyhole II / Invictus comparability text. KH II platform is 120 ktons vs ~60 ktons for KH 1, and requires 75 kton extra computing space. All Invictus were completed KH 1, but David has always stressed the KH II difficulty.

He sure did, but according to this quote from AAC Invictus don't require a refit for Keyhole 2 since they have been built with Keyhole 1 capability from the outset:

[White Haven] “However, at this time, Eighth Fleet is the only formation we've got which is fully trained with the new weapons. It's also the only formation that's equipped with the new weapons, because only the Invictus and the Graysons' late-flight Harringtons—" he smiled wryly at the class name, despite his somber mood "—can operate them without refitting. "
"Why is that?" Grantville asked. "I thought the pods were the same dimensions?"
"They are, but only the ships built with Keyhole capability from the outset can handle the Mark Two platforms, and they're essential to making the new missiles work. We can refit with Keyhole II—in fact, the decision to build that in is part of what's delayed the Andermani refits—but it requires placing the ship in yard hands for at least eight to ten weeks. And, frankly, we can't stand down our existing ships that long when we're this tightly strapped. All our new construction is being altered on the ways to be Keyhole II-capable, and when it starts coming into commission, we can probably start pulling the older ships back for refit.”

I mean it does make sense. The ships designers probably realized early one that future Keyhole versions would be much larger and included growing capacity.
This wouldn’t have been done for older ships which were refitted with Keyhole 1 since this would have required a much more extensive refit. I think Janacek was in charge at that time so one could see why it wasn´t done right in the first place.
But maybe this was retconned later, dunno.

@ThinksMarkedly

I agree, but with the Queen angry as she was, he would have told her of the options he already knew of. That there was only of relevant one speaks of how the Alliance planners had managed so far. And as I wrote above, after getting his marching orders, he'd have convened with Caparelli, Wesley or Yanakov and Rabestrange to decide how to implement it. The Queen had no authority to make the decision for the Alliance -- at the time, the RMN wasn't contributing the most Apollo-capable ships, or even the most ships at all.
So I agree that it was inappropriate, but that had little consequence as such. If White Haven had postponed and had the Queen meet with the Joint Chiefs, what would they have told her?

Whether the Queen is angry or not is irrelevant and no justification for him not deferring to Caparelli and remind the Queen to hold this discussion with his Space Lords.

You think an ‘I fully support your call for military action your majesty, but before we make any decision on fleet movements we ought to consult with the First Space Lord for his latest operational planning’ wouldn’t have worked in any point of the discussion?
About the idea that after getting his marching orders he would have convened with whatever Admirals in the Chain of Command and still could have ignored the Queen after the fact.

This argument doesn’t work. First, it’s not the First Lords job to do anything like this at all. We’ve been over this, if anyone could have done anything of the sort, it would have been the First Space Lord, the guy actually in charge of the armed forces. White Haven is not the equivalent of the Secretary of Defense in the United States. He is a pretty much powerless Secretary of War, very much outside the chain of command.
But more importantly, it looks like the Queen very much had the authority to commit Eighth Fleet to specific operations.

Textev from Chapter 52:
"Hamish, I want orders cut to Eighth Fleet immediately. Operation Sanskrit is reactivated, as of now. I want active planning to begin immediately, and I want Sanskrit to hit the Peeps as soon as physically possible."

The Queen committed them to Sanskrit, not just to military action. There is no lowly allied Admiral who has to sign off on this. Manticore, or more precisely the RMN seems to have supreme command authority over allied fleets detached for Alliance duty. It would obviously be different and Yeltins or in Silesia/Andermani territory, but when fleet units were made available for alliance duty, the RMN decides what to do with them.

You can't do nothing. The First Rule of Spacae Warfare: don't let the enemy dictate where action will occur.

The whole point of the Operations Cutworm so far had been to keep the RHN from massing its hundreds of SD(P)s for an offensive. That Theisman wouldn't have done so is irrelevant, since the Alliance had no crystal ball giving them insights into the Havenite government. So suspending all operations is as bad as continuing with ineffective operations.

I fully agree that running the clock until more Apollo became avialable would have been preferable. I'm arguing that this option was not on the table. Doing nothing or attacking tertiary targets would have freed the RHN to mass for bigger attacks. Attacking systems of the level of Solon would have gutted Eighth Fleet, draining the sparse force levels the Alliance had and killing sailors for little gain.

You very much can let the enemy decide on when to attack next when it’s immaterial where he will attack. Or when it is impractical for you to force him on a specific or such action would affect you adversely. Inviting attack to gain an advantage it’s very much in the playbook and Caparelli used it frequently during the first war

Again as I explained multiple times, the Alliance may have had no crystal bowl, but Theismans actions before the summit talks demonstrate that he was not willing to mount a deciding operation any time soon.

After the summit talks collapsed there simply was no need anymore for further Cutworm raids. Not because Theisman would just sit back forever, but because nothing he could conceivably do until the window of vulnerability closes for Manticore would have resulted in a decapitating blow to the Alliance.

You can mount further operations against Havenite systems if you like. But you don’t need to. If you don’t hit them immediately at Lovat anything at all changes.

Doing nothing wouldn’t just magically free up the RHN to mass for a decisive attack. Theisman has no crystal bowl either and we would have continued what he has done before – act cautiously and mount another ultimately irrelevant operation against a tertiary alliance target.

Operation Beatrice was one of the two that he decided to brief Pritchart on after the Torch talks collapsed, before Apollo was revealed. He was ready to pull the trigger in mid to late 1921, just depending on what the Alliance did.

That it was Apollo and the war was effectively over one way or the other only made the decision easier.
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I don't think Theisman would have allowed enough time to pass. I'm sure he had no idea what danger he was in and that his timelines were wrong.

But let's say that the Alliance had had time to deploy more Apollos. What systems do they go for? You said above to hit Jouet, not Haven. If they did that, Theisman would have activated Beatrice anyway. Any system except Haven would have called for Beatrice because the intel he would have had would not have changed. And if Eighth Fleet had enough firepower after Jouet or Lovat, it might be on sortie instead of working more up and not been able to respond to the invasion of Manticore.

I’d argue if he really would have been ready in his mind to do that if there hadn’t been an attack on Lovat and he just won at Alizon but the point here is – let him.
If he had made up his mind between mid to late 1921 the window of vulnerability has closed. He has lost the war, just doesn’t know it yet.

You seem to forget, Manticore was on the verge of activating the Apollo System Defense pods when the Battle of Manticore happened. They were already the process of installing them at Manticore-B. Another week or so and those would have been active by the end of July 1921.

Give him another month or two – say he attacks Manticore in October 1921 for your scenario to work out that Eighth fleet would not have been available – and Manticore has activated Apollo system defense pods all over the system.
Second Fleet suffer catastrophic losses by the fixed defenses before Tourville even reaches Home Fleet – if he does at all as a coherent fighting force, really depending on how many Apollo system defense pods there are at Manticore A.

In any case, he just lost his donkey missile pods which means Home Fleet wouldn’t die in the exchange. At that point, I doubt very much Fifth Fleet would commit to battle at all.

Agreed, but the RMN and the Alliance did hold as it was. As the discussion earlier in this thread showed, if not for D'Orville's and Kuzak's mistakes, Honor would have had to do nothing but mop up. They were already sufficient as they were. More protection is always better, but you can't wait forever.

I won’t argue that on the basis of AAC being a terrible book as far as the last battle is concerned. Haven wanted to mount a decisive attack. The fact that it really wasn’t a decisive attack if the RMN Admirals would have been remotely competent is not on Theisman but on the author.

We know Theisman could have upped the tempo, but neither he nor Pritchart wanted to. The Manties and the Allience did not know that. Since they rejected the possibility that he was holding back, the remaining conclusion was that he couldn't up the tempo.

The Manties could conceivable assume that Theisman's next move after Gobi and the summit talks wouldn't have been to mount an attack on Manticore itself. The next logical target would have been another tertiary alliance system, continuing his Gobi strategy. Failing that, the conceivable worst case would have been an attack at Basilisk, Trevor or Yeltsin.

But even if you assume the theoretical worst-case and expect Theisman to attack at Manticore, your next move is not to go out and trash Lovat but to keep Eighth Fleet at Home, bracing for the attack.

No matter what variant you prefer, what you don’t to is reveal Apollo at Lovat. You just run down the clock JUST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF MONTHS AT WORST and win the war.

This is not really explained. One theory could be that it was the building of the Keyhole II itself. It had the size of a small destroyer, so it's a non-trivial build by itself. The electronics on the mothership also need to be swapped, most likely.

Actually, I remembered yesterday after I posted. It says in House of Steel that only a hundred were laid down as part of the emergency war construction.
This means Manticore was also building 100 Medusas with the python lump and the ‘All our new construction is being altered on the ways to be Keyhole II-capable’ quote probably refers to them.

What if they were, but most weren't Keyhole II-capable? In any case, most of those 35 hulls had to be Medusas, with just a few Invictus. We know at least three were available: HMS Invictus, HMS Imperator and HMS Intolerant. And note how none of the three was Apollo-capable.

No, they cant be Medusas. I would assume so too, but again, House of Steel. Please look it up. The entire Jaynes Intelligence Review is from April 1921. In the section for the Invictus class SDP, it says up to this point 53+ (!!) have been built.

It further says:
‘At the resumption of hostilities, only twelve Invictus-class ships were in commission, with a few more nearing completion in Manticore from previously suspended construction programs. Dozens were lost in the Grendelsbane attack, and over a hundred were laid down as part of the emergency war construction program for completion over the next couple of years.’

For the 53+ number in April 1921 to make any sense, you’d have the original 12, plus all of the 35 wallers building at Manticore plus those ‘few more from previously suspended construction programs’.

I’d be right there with you saying the numbers in House of Steel are horrid. Especially the Grayson numbers don’t make any sense. But alas, those are the numbers we have.
53+ (say minus a few since Intolerant and losses at Zanzibar) were out of the yards by April 1921.

Based on all the textev provided about their construction earlier, they should have been more than ready for the Battle of Manticore. But in any case, the would have been ready for an offensive later in the year. There is no way around that.

Also, just Invictus wasn’t Apollo capable. Probably because it was the only Invictus in Home Fleet and the Admiralty didn’t bother to give them the new Keyhole 2 platforms and missiles. Imperator and Intransigent were Apollo capable.

I think your count is too high and still too late. We do know that Python Lump ships left the yards in October/November 1921 (to the MAlign's chagrin), which means they'd have been available for operations in late December at the earliest. As I've argued above, that's too late.

And I wrote in the part you quoted that I’m not counting on any python lump construction being available for an October offensive. I’m saying that without the python lump Eighth Fleet could have had a maximum of 100 Apollo capable wallers in October 1921. This is probably too high and a more reasonable number would be something around 70, but still more than enough to take Haven.