** ACTI Spoiler ** The B plot

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Huh... what was that about? Why is there a detective story investigating a murder in the middle of the book?

I mean, don't get me wrong. Asimov's The Caves of Steel is after all a detective story, and so are the other two Robots books. So it goes in line with the best of Sci-Fi and it was pretty enjoyable.

But why was it there? Aside from the connection with Michael Winton, Elizabeth III's brother, who is the Duke of Winton-Serisburg in Honor's time, the story is wholly disconnected from the plot. It doesn't look like the perpetrator (not saying who in case you haven't reached the end) is connected to Axelrod or the wormhole.

David is pretty good at laying hints for future. But this is a third of the book and pretty disconnected as is.

I think it may be a case of 'The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Nightime'. That is, the whole Crystal Pine plot went to an enormous amount of (years long) effort to destroy a peer with his heirs.

Meanwhile, Gavin Vellacott, Baron Winterfall, is unmarried, his parents are dead - and he has no surviving full siblings. No heir has ever been mentioned. So why didn't Crystal Pine murder him?

The importance of the plot is not Duke Serisberg, it's the question of why Crystal Pine didn't pick Gavin as Chief Victim.

Jonathan_S wrote:I believe she was introduced as newly a member of the 50 person House of Lords. But there were more than 50 peerages even back then; and so she'd have already been a peer.

That's not how I understood it. She was a member of the 50 on account of Serisburg's death, which dropped the number to 49 current peers. She was elevated specifically to bring the number back to 50. And ACTI is clear she was elevated.

ACTI, ch 4 wrote:The new Secretary of the Industry had only joined the House of Lords five months ago, following the terrible air-car accident that had killed Jonathan Martinez, Duke Serisburg, and his remaining family.

Strictly speaking, "following" only establishes that the events were sequential to one another, not that there was a cause-consequence relationship. But it's strongly implied.

And that's why I assume there was pressure to increase the size of Lords -- all those later investors/peers who had titles and holdings (some whom would have been larger investors that many of the first 50), but no seat and want in on the action.

I agree. The Crown will support that and that's probably where the 10% number that we know of from the San Martin peers and High Ridge's aversion to holding an election comes from.

The death of an entire Peerage was a situation that none of the Founders had ever wanted to happen, but in the middle of the wholesale death that was the Plague Years they’d had the foresight to make sure it was addressed in the Constitution.

That hints that when that part of the Constitution was written none of the first 50 investor families had yet died out, and possibly no investor family had been. If one had already died out I think it would have been phrased differently; as it then wouldn't be "foresight" so much as applying hindsight to the new situation.

I didn't read it like that. To me, "none (...) had ever wanted to happen" means that they didn't wish it on anyone, not that they hadn't imagined it could happen. As for "foresight," it was about a thing that hadn't happened yet because there were no peers yet, and because the Plague Years having been conquered and immigration ticking up, they would have thought themselves reasonably secure.

Bluesqueak wrote:Meanwhile, Gavin Vellacott, Baron Winterfall, is unmarried, his parents are dead - and he has no surviving full siblings. No heir has ever been mentioned. So why didn't Crystal Pine murder him?

The importance of the plot is not Duke Serisberg, it's the question of why Crystal Pine didn't pick Gavin as Chief Victim.

Now that's a disturbing thought. I was going to say that Crystal Pine could have begun her efforts before Gavin became Baron so she would have continued it to conclusion, but that's a weak argument and doesn't fit the timeline. Gavin became Baron on the death of his parents and I think older sister some time prior in 1528 or 1529, which is when ACTD starts. The plot to kill Serisburg didn't start until a few years later.

However, we don't know that there aren't other, eligible heirs to the Winterfall barony. Even if Travis isn't eligible, it can go to a cousin of theirs, like the Earldom of Harrington went from Honor to Devon. We know that it was their grandparents who were investors in the MCT, so cousins are a strong possibility. It might be that Serisburg was the only one or one of the few ones who had no eligible heirs outside of his immediate family, making it possible to kill all of them with one event that looked like an accident. An older peer is far more likely to leave no heirs than a young one like Winterfall.

It's also possible that an unmarried brother or sister of Serisburg died between 1530 and 1545 too, in an accident. That could have contributed to Calvingdell's suspicions.

It may also be that it was Gavin's ascension to the Winterfall title that gave Olga the idea in the first place. She witnessed the turn over from an older generation to a new one without giving her an opening to become a peer. We know Gavin wasn't the only young lord at the time.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Bluesqueak wrote:Meanwhile, Gavin Vellacott, Baron Winterfall, is unmarried, his parents are dead - and he has no surviving full siblings. No heir has ever been mentioned. So why didn't Crystal Pine murder him?

The importance of the plot is not Duke Serisberg, it's the question of why Crystal Pine didn't pick Gavin as Chief Victim.

Now that's a disturbing thought. I was going to say that Crystal Pine could have begun her efforts before Gavin became Baron so she would have continued it to conclusion, but that's a weak argument and doesn't fit the timeline. Gavin became Baron on the death of his parents and I think older sister some time prior in 1528 or 1529, which is when ACTD starts. The plot to kill Serisburg didn't start until a few years later.

However, we don't know that there aren't other, eligible heirs to the Winterfall barony. Even if Travis isn't eligible, it can go to a cousin of theirs, like the Earldom of Harrington went from Honor to Devon. We know that it was their grandparents who were investors in the MCT, so cousins are a strong possibility. It might be that Serisburg was the only one or one of the few ones who had no eligible heirs outside of his immediate family, making it possible to kill all of them with one event that looked like an accident. An older peer is far more likely to leave no heirs than a young one like Winterfall.

It's also possible that an unmarried brother or sister of Serisburg died between 1530 and 1545 too, in an accident. That could have contributed to Calvingdell's suspicions.

It may also be that it was Gavin's ascension to the Winterfall title that gave Olga the idea in the first place. She witnessed the turn over from an older generation to a new one without giving her an opening to become a peer. We know Gavin wasn't the only young lord at the time.

If you take the theme of the book as ‘heirs’ or ‘inheritance’, then the subplot fits perfectly. The Andermani main plot is motivated by an insurrection led by someone who thinks they are the rightful heir. Serisburg is murdered in the subplot (another insurrection) because he and his heirs can all fit in one targeted air car. (It’s also hinted that he may have needed to divorce his first wife because they couldn’t have children together). Additionally, Andrew cannot lead the Andermani in battle because he has no heir. Queen Elizabeth has also headed off Breakwater’s insurrection in the previous book by producing an heir (David) at the beginning of this book.

There’s others. Inherited feuds, hereditary presidents, you name it. Even Travis gets married.


The dog that didn’t bark is the Winterfall heir. Who must exist, because Gavin wasn’t Crystal Pine’s first choice for target, but who has never, ever been mentioned in the four books where the Winterfall barony and the Vellacott-Long brothers have played a major role in the history of the Star Kingdom. The closest it got to being mentioned in the Insurrection was when Lisa hinted that Gavin needs to get married because he’s in his fifties now.

An entire book where plot and subplot are driven by ‘inheritance’/heirs - with one exception.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Even Crystal Pine's discussion of why they shouldn't invite Axelrod was two pages.

What if she was involved with another transtellar that also have gotten wind of the wormhole-junction? From that angle it makes sense for her not wanting Axelrod sniffing around. It could also explain her "maneuvering" to become a peer since it gives her
some leverage on how a discovery of a wormhole would be handled - like offering contracts to a transtellar supplying hardware and services etc etc which could be used to make a soft takeover later on.

The above speculation makes more sense than a dead-end detective story thrown in, but it is only that, speculation.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:I believe she was introduced as newly a member of the 50 person House of Lords. But there were more than 50 peerages even back then; and so she'd have already been a peer.

That's not how I understood it. She was a member of the 50 on account of Serisburg's death, which dropped the number to 49 current peers. She was elevated specifically to bring the number back to 50. And ACTI is clear she was elevated.

ACTI, ch 4 wrote:The new Secretary of the Industry had only joined the House of Lords five months ago, following the terrible air-car accident that had killed Jonathan Martinez, Duke Serisburg, and his remaining family.

Strictly speaking, "following" only establishes that the events were sequential to one another, not that there was a cause-consequence relationship. But it's strongly implied.

I guess we'll just have to await further information since we're reading the same passage two different ways.

She clearly joined the 50 person House of Lords following Serisburg's death; which dropped the House to 49 seated Lords. And I think the "following", in this case, is intended to show causation -- that she was given a seat in Lords because she was next in line when it dropped to 49.

Our disagreement appears to be whether or not in Travis's time there additional nobles who are not seated in Lords; and thus whether or not Olga Strait was elevated to the peerage, ennobled, and made Baroness Crystal Pine after Serisburg's death; or merely whether she, already Baroness Crystal Pine, simply gained a seat in the House of Lords.[1]


I'm pretty sure that there were more than 50 nobles at the time, despite the cap on membership of the House of Lords.

HoS not only seems to say that all of the original investors (or their surviving heir) were immediately ennobled by the new Constitution but also that the wealthiest of the post-plague immigrants were also granted titles of nobility (and remember the plague started a century before the events of ACtD; so there would have been these additional investors already).

With the creation of the new constitution:

House of Steel wrote:When the Constitution was adopted, converting shareholders into peers of the realm, the membership of the House of Lords was fixed at fifty, with seats granted based on the order in which the original colonists had invested in the expedition.

House of Steel wrote:"Simultaneously, the surviving “First Shareholders” and their descendants, who held title to vast tracts of land, acquired patents of nobility to go with their wealth and the hereditary aristocracy of Manticore was born."

That doesn't make it sound like only the first fifty were converted into peers of the realm and acquired their patents of nobility. It reads to me like all of them were made nobles by the Constitution but only the first 50 to invest also gained a seat in the House of Lords.

And after the plague

House of Steel wrote:"The most affluent immigrants thus became “Second Shareholders,” with estates which, in some cases, rivaled those of the original shareholders and entitled them to patents of nobility junior only to those of the existing aristocracy."

So not only does it seem that more than 50 noble titles were created by the original constitution, but some additional titles had also been created over the decades between the establishment of the Constitution and ACtV.

And thus, my interpretation of the existing text-ev, is that Olga Strait was not elevated to Baroness Crystal Pine when she was granted her seat in Lords; but she (like whoever the 54th investor was) already was a peer of the realm with a patent of nobility prior to that. However that isn't flat out stated anywhere that I can find -- so as I said we may just have to hold onto our different readings until new text-ev appears or RFC chooses to weigh in.

---
House of Steel is explicit that by Honor's time there are more peerages than there are seats in Lords. But it doesn't state one way or the other whether that's been true since the establishment of the new Constitution.

Jonathan_S wrote:And thus, my interpretation of the existing text-ev, is that Olga Strait was not elevated to Baroness Crystal Pine when she was granted her seat in Lords; but she (like whoever the 54th investor was) already was a peer of the realm with a patent of nobility prior to that. However that isn't flat out stated anywhere that I can find -- so as I said we may just have to hold onto our different readings until new text-ev appears or RFC chooses to weigh in.

Given your new evidence, especially that of Second Shareholders becoming nobles, I'm changing my mind and reaching the same conclusion as you did: the nobles were there, just not seated in the House of Lords.

Joat42 wrote:What if she was involved with another transtellar that also have gotten wind of the wormhole-junction? From that angle it makes sense for her not wanting Axelrod sniffing around. It could also explain her "maneuvering" to become a peer since it gives her
some leverage on how a discovery of a wormhole would be handled - like offering contracts to a transtellar supplying hardware and services etc etc which could be used to make a soft takeover later on.

The above speculation makes more sense than a dead-end detective story thrown in, but it is only that, speculation.

That it does. It's speculation only, but possible. And it could spice up things for the next book or two, and as well as muddy the waters in discovering Axelrod in the first place because there'd be evidence pointing to them as well as evidence pointing away from them.

Maybe this other entity is not trying to take over the entire system. If they just coopt the Government, they could get incredibly lucrative deals and de-facto control of the Junction. Their shipbuilding division could even make lots of money selling warships to the RMN. Not to mention the electronics and molycirc industries that produce those damn quads and hexes!

Pretty sure this is a much bigger return on investment.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:And thus, my interpretation of the existing text-ev, is that Olga Strait was not elevated to Baroness Crystal Pine when she was granted her seat in Lords; but she (like whoever the 54th investor was) already was a peer of the realm with a patent of nobility prior to that. However that isn't flat out stated anywhere that I can find -- so as I said we may just have to hold onto our different readings until new text-ev appears or RFC chooses to weigh in.

Given your new evidence, especially that of Second Shareholders becoming nobles, I'm changing my mind and reaching the same conclusion as you did: the nobles were there, just not seated in the House of Lords.

Speaking of nobles who were there and not seated...

125,000 people arrived at Manticore. After approximately five to seven decades, sixty percent of them were dead to the plague. Then those surviving "first shareholders" established the Star Kingdom, acquiring patents of nobility. Assuming 50,000 paired up and merged their holdings, that could be anywhere up to 25,000 titles.

From among those, the first fifty became seated peers. That initial House of Lords was almost certainly created out of the board of directors of the Manticore Colony, Ltd.

munroburton wrote:
Speaking of nobles who were there and not seated...

125,000 people arrived at Manticore. After approximately five to seven decades, sixty percent of them were dead to the plague. Then those surviving "first shareholders" established the Star Kingdom, acquiring patents of nobility. Assuming 50,000 paired up and merged their holdings, that could be anywhere up to 25,000 titles.

From among those, the first fifty became seated peers. That initial House of Lords was almost certainly created out of the board of directors of the Manticore Colony, Ltd.

Though that 125,000 people was made up of "The total expedition consisted of ninety-three thousand adults and thirty-two
thousand minor children." [HoS] So the kids wouldn't have been investors; and there would have been young adult children who wouldn't have been (significant) investors themselves (with the best will in the world a 20 year old college student simply hasn't had time to earn enough wealth to be noticeable to the bottom line of a colony expedition like that -- they'd be along because their parents invested enough to bring the whole family along)

And I suspect (though this is pure speculation on my part) that only one title would be created per family -- even if both parents had contributed significantly to earning the money they invested. (Though you might also be right that the individuals got to decide whether they'd like separate titles based on their individual contributions or a merged family title based on their combined -- though the former might be tricky if they pair involved start disputing how the family investment should be apportioned to each adult; would the colony have the records to even let a court wort that out?)

And then there were probably some colonists that were recruited for their specific skills; important enough that they wouldn't be required to pay there way.

Still we can knock 25% off your number immediately for the minor children. And probably knock another sizable chunk on for the young adults, crew, and other recruited non-investors on the original journey.

So with all that I'd bet the total number of titles was quite a bit lower than 25,000; maybe even below 10,000. (But way, way, more than 50)