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OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?

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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by munroburton   » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:28 pm

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tlb wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:With the delays in interstellar communication, what happens if Tourville captures the MBS while Honor captures Haven?

The two sides switch places?


Haven loses anyway in that scenario because even if it has a full Manticoran surrender in hand, it's still facing two active belligerents: Grayson and Anderman. Eighth Fleet can return to Manticore(via Yeltsin's Star for ammo reloads if needed) as a purely GSN-IAN force under the command of Steadholder Admiral Harrington and liberate it.

Somewhat like Paris/France during WW2.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:42 pm

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tlb wrote:chapter 44 of At All Costs:
"Because the entire strategic situation's suddenly been thrown into such a state of flux, Admiralty House has ordered the temporary stand down of Operation Sanskrit. For now, we're postponing the execution date by three weeks. That should give us time to receive dispatches from Terekhov or Khumalo from Monica. Hopefully, those dispatches will confirm that Terekhov was either wrong or that he and Khumalo have managed to defuse the situation. In either of those cases, Sanskrit will be reactivated, although we'll probably face some delay because of our need to factor in intelligence on any changes which may occur in the meantime."


Emphasis mine.

The law of unintended consequences strikes again. If the MAlign hadn't panicked and launched the Monica and Talbott Sector operations to destabilise Manticore's expansion, Honor would have likely been away from Trevor's Star when Tourville showed up.

I don't think much else would have changed, though. Pritchart was not interested in conquering Manticore and Theisman couldn't hold it. That would have led to a cease fire sooner and a peace treaty between the two former enemies, though.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by kzt   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 1:55 am

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munroburton wrote:Haven loses anyway in that scenario because even if it has a full Manticoran surrender in hand, it's still facing two active belligerents: Grayson and Anderman. Eighth Fleet can return to Manticore(via Yeltsin's Star for ammo reloads if needed) as a purely GSN-IAN force under the command of Steadholder Admiral Harrington and liberate it.

Not that easy. Grayson and IAN can't produce Apollo missiles, David explicitly told me that. I'm not sure they can produce Mk23/Mk16 missiles. The RMN was barely producing enough Apollo missiles to equip new builds, so there are no Apollo reloads.

It seems highly likely that 8th fleet will need to expend most of their ammo to take out the defenses at Haven. So they will have to reload with Mk-23s. Which are certainly better than the Haven missiles, but not that much better.

So at that point, the MA still doesn't know where the biggest yard is, about 75% of the MA shipbuilding is in enemy hands, and Haven is busy trying to find all the cool tech in the backups and get it to the their secret yard.

On the Haven side, they have lost their 2nd largest shipyard and lot of critical resource, leaving them with only about 600% more construction capability than the surviving MA has. I would expect that there is a high probability that there is an intact Haven government. (8th doesn't have the ship or missiles to stop 500 ships breaking for the limit)

So I'd rather be President Pritchart rather than Queen Elizabeth. But it's still not a great place to be.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by munroburton   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:13 am

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kzt wrote:
munroburton wrote:Haven loses anyway in that scenario because even if it has a full Manticoran surrender in hand, it's still facing two active belligerents: Grayson and Anderman. Eighth Fleet can return to Manticore(via Yeltsin's Star for ammo reloads if needed) as a purely GSN-IAN force under the command of Steadholder Admiral Harrington and liberate it.

Not that easy. Grayson and IAN can't produce Apollo missiles, David explicitly told me that. I'm not sure they can produce Mk23/Mk16 missiles. The RMN was barely producing enough Apollo missiles to equip new builds, so there are no Apollo reloads.


IAN can't, but Grayson certainly should have, as their Apollo-capable wallers did the bulk of the lifting at Lovat. Oyster Bay included Grayson because it did have its own Apollo production facilities(or the MAlign believed it did).

How long does it take a fleet to fly from Trevor's Star to Haven, then Haven to Yeltsin's Star? How many Apollo missiles could be produced in this time?

The idea that Grayson isn't even producing MK23s! You'll have to find some source to back that one up, please.

So at that point, the MA still doesn't know where the biggest yard is, about 75% of the MA shipbuilding is in enemy hands, and Haven is busy trying to find all the cool tech in the backups and get it to the their secret yard.


That's the kicker. If Haven keeps Bolthole's location secret throughout their initial surrender and Tourville can dash off some stuff from Manticoran yards... well, I think Haven still loses because as soon as Manticore has been liberated by General de Harringtone, they're turning around to go back to Haven to enforce the surrender. And that means Bolthole's days are numbered.

So I'd rather be President Pritchart rather than Queen Elizabeth. But it's still not a great place to be.

I wouldn't. Yes, being taken aboard Eighth Fleet's flagship and carted back to Manticore to sign the formal surrender treaty isn't a great place to be.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by kzt   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:02 am

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No, the first set of equipment to build Apollo missiles showed up at Grayson a week or two before someone blew everything up. There is no source for them. So all the Apollo missiles that exist are in the magazines of 8th fleet. Well, other than the ones that Haven captured on the shipping docks.

So when they are gone there are no more. Use them wisely.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:35 am

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munroburton wrote:I wouldn't. Yes, being taken aboard Eighth Fleet's flagship and carted back to Manticore to sign the formal surrender treaty isn't a great place to be.


With a slight change of words, that's exactly what happened:

Pritchart flew Haven One to Eighth Fleet's flagship and was escorted as a guest to Manticore to sign the formal peace treaty.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 11:41 am

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kzt wrote:No, the first set of equipment to build Apollo missiles showed up at Grayson a week or two before someone blew everything up. There is no source for them. So all the Apollo missiles that exist are in the magazines of 8th fleet. Well, other than the ones that Haven captured on the shipping docks.

So when they are gone there are no more. Use them wisely.


There may be more in Trevor's Star's warehouses. How much is very much unknown. It will depend on how much of what was there already prior to shipping Eighth Fleet took with it. As production was low, they wouldn't bring a fleet train for reloads, so they only took what they could carry in their internal storages. That means that any excess production would have remained in Trevor's Star. Add to that production that arrived there prior to Tourville capturing the production facilities.

But I agree it wouldn't be a lot. Probably not a full reload, if Honor expended everything taking out Capital Fleet.

But would she? Neither Pritchat or Theisman are stupid. They know that Capital Fleet can't withstand against Eighth Fleet equipped with Apollo. The only thing they could do is be targets. So what would they do?
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by cthia   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:27 pm

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tlb wrote:
cthia wrote:I didn't know that Eighth Fleet was considered a part of Home Fleet as stated upstream. Is there textev on that?

Please note that Eighth Fleet is NOT a part of Home Fleet (I said they were part of the defense forces, not specifically that they were part of Home Fleet); but was always intended to serve as a backup reserve for Home Fleet. That has been stated a number of times, but here is one from chapter 44 of At All Costs:
"Under the circumstances, Admiral Khumalo felt he had no option but to request immediate reinforcement. Since it's possible Terekhov, or Khumalo, or both of them may find themselves in a shooting incident with Solarian units, the Admiralty felt it had no option but to dispatch a significant reinforcement from Home Fleet. Those units are already on their way to Monica.
"Obviously, all of these moves have implications for us. The most immediate one is that Home Fleet is now going to be understrength, and one of the functions of Eighth Fleet, like Third Fleet, is to serve as a ready reserve for Home Fleet. There's also the possibility that the Star Kingdom is about to find itself engaged against Solarian units, and no one is prepared to predict the possible ramifications of that.
"Because the entire strategic situation's suddenly been thrown into such a state of flux, Admiralty House has ordered the temporary stand down of Operation Sanskrit. For now, we're postponing the execution date by three weeks. That should give us time to receive dispatches from Terekhov or Khumalo from Monica. Hopefully, those dispatches will confirm that Terekhov was either wrong or that he and Khumalo have managed to defuse the situation. In either of those cases, Sanskrit will be reactivated, although we'll probably face some delay because of our need to factor in intelligence on any changes which may occur in the meantime."

Thanks for ironing that out. So, Eighth Fleet was considered a backup reserve. Backup implies that 8th Fleet should always be reasonably available.

Reserve implies a bit more play in the chain and room for 8th Fleet to go on maneuvers. But! When Apollo was unveiled, it forced Haven's hand. That decision should have grounded 8th to the MBS until such time as it got the system variant of Apollo. And even if 8th Fleet went on maneuvers it should at least leave two Apollo capable ships behind. That would have been something D'Orvile could have bluffed with. He could have unloaded all of the pods from two ships at Tourville. "Should I rinse and repeat?"

BTW, are things worse than I thought? What ships from Home Fleet were sent to Monica? A significant amount of firepower? What missiles?

Son, your mother says I have to hang you. Personally I don't think this is a capital offense. But if I don't hang you, she's gonna hang me and frankly, I'm not the one in trouble. —cthia's father. Incident in ? Axiom of Common Sense
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by rtthompson   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 4:49 pm

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cthia wrote:Thanks for ironing that out. So, Eighth Fleet was considered a backup reserve. Backup implies that 8th Fleet should always be reasonably available.


no, "backup reserve" just meant that Third Fleet was the "primary reserve," especially since they had to make up the 8th Fleet as a new organization after the ceasefire; Third already existed at Trevor's Star. It's "reasonably available" when it isn't deployed.
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Re: OK KZT: What's wrong with AAC?
Post by tlb   » Sun Apr 10, 2022 5:07 pm

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cthia wrote: What ships from Home Fleet were sent to Monica? A significant amount of firepower? What missiles?

I do not know; all that I could find was that Vice Admiral O'Malley brought a task force of battle-cruisers from Home Fleet, as well as support ships that helped repair HMS Hexapuma. These would not be ships that could handle Apollo.
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