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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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XofDallas
Posts: 156
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I just got to thinking - whatever happens in Dohlar will not happen in a vacuum. First, in the next two months, a tremendous amount of hurt likely will be visited on the two other CoGA armies in Siddarmark - which might prove a distraction to Clyntahn. Second, there is a huge Harchongese Army in training up the coast aways (alright, maybe a long way away, but they're planning on marching east anyway). Third, there's the hurting that's about to be put on CoGA interests in the Gulf of Dohlar, Silkiah and the entire subcontinent of Howard. Fourth, I think something's going to either happen to, or come to light about, the concentration camps Clyntahn has created.
These are huge factors that will affect Clyntahn's attention to, and feelings about, Ahlverez and Dohlar. Some will distract him, but I believe the others will influence him to pay a lot of attention to Dohlar. Another factor that clouds the issue: Ahlverez may wind up being the only military commander left to CoGA who has actually won any battle against the Alliance (well, Thirsk did as well, but it didn't score him any brownie points). I still think Clyntahn will do something drastic with respect to Dohlar, for two additional reasons. First, is his propensity to rule (or at least influence) through bloodshed, terror and intimidation. Second, after the next few events I think are coming, together with liberation of the existing concentration camps in Siddarmark, Dohlar may be the only geographic area he's unhappy with that he actually still can influence through the Inquisition. |
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InvisibleBison
Posts: 45
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There is actually a precedent for this: The Charisian conquest of Corisande. Cayleb let the Temple Loyalists remain Temple Loyalists, so long as they didn't disturb the peace. I would imagine that Cayleb, at least, would prefer to take a similar course in any mainland realms the Alliance conquers. They might have to make some compromises out of military necessity, but the good guys have been quite vehement about the need to allow religious freedom from the get-go. |
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SYED
Posts: 1345
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First off, the remains of their forces has to get to their territory and fortifications, to avoid the armed enemy forces, and the fact that they have lost nearly all their supplies. Even if they avoid all combat, by the time they get home, they will be worn out, and half starved.
Even if they survive, they will then be ordered to reinforce the border of dohlar. That is with limited supplies, and with fortifications that are unready for modern combat and weaponry. With the impending naval attack, the border forces will be competing for supplies and manpower to hold their ground. The land border, is not full developed, with only the canal really linking to the republic. My guess is that dohlar was colonised from the coast, while the border states and the republic grew towards the region. Since thirsk is so unfavored by the church and those in his own government, it is likrely the priority will go to the army. especially since chariss might attack, only the land forces will invade the inland regions |
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi Tootall,
First, what proof will Clyntahn have to blame Ahlverez? The fact he survived certainly doesn't mean he's cowardly, the fact he brought almost 48,000 troops out with him, unlike Hennet, speaks volumes; even Clyntahn isn't that stupid. Kyr was at Brahnselyk, not a witness to Ahlverez's wise suggestion, and I don't think Hankey wants to be a POW, so who is there to witness against Ahlverez left except Father Tymothy, who as an inquisitor has a limited life expectancy if captured by the ICA if he survives the battle? Given the starved weary worn out state of the Desnari infantry after forced marching ~200 miles from Fort Tairys, just how long did they fight before they gave up? Or were they far wiser than their high command, as wise to the obvious as Ahlverez? Given that we know messengers are searching for Ahlverez to warn him Hanth broke out and destroyed the Desnari supply bases, i see no reason to believe he's in the trouble some posters have created. Keep in mind we have no indication whatsoever that Zhaspahr harbors any good feelings toward Desnar like those he has toward Harchong, so given Desnar's record of almost 2 centuries of military failure, is he really that surprised? Disappointed? Absolutely! Furious his plan isn't working? Of course! etc, etc, etc. But arresting Ahlverez especially after getting Sulyvyn Fyrmyn's report, seems contra-indicated, Rayno will be the first to argue against any such nonsense. Rayno was still able to reach him after Dialydd Mab's letter about Sarkyn, so rationality can still triumph. He may try to blame Rhobair and Allayn, but they did all they could; the Desnari openly and officially rejected Duchairn's offers to help their logistics; they have no one to blame but themselves. Personally, I expect the 13,000 Desnari infantry survivors to have many interesting things to say about the aristocratic incompetents; the effects upon the status quo in Desnar will have all sorts of entertaining results. In response to your points, my comments below; 1) Its certainly unfair but would definitely be entertaining. 2) Kyr and Hankey are dead or captured, I'm betting Kyr is a POW, since I don't see him committing suicide [probably yelling "Ransom! Ransom!"], while Hankey may get shot off his horse etc; so they're not in a position to testify unless Clyntahn wants to request they be released from alliance custody. ![]() 3) Given both Makyntyr and Tymplahr are good friends of Thirsk, they may have already written him with the good news, or relay it if something indeed happens to Ahlverez; but Rainos may keep it a secret until he can thank Thirsk by saving his family. ![]() 4) Clyntahn may ignore the other 3 of the Go4, possibly by arresting [or trying to] Ahlverez after Trynair has in the Grand Vicar in the name of the church officially praised his leadership and bravery-indicating that the CoGA doesn't speak with one voice, a dangerous precedent at anytime, but especially now. Since Clyntahn has already been publicly punished for falsifying reports [Delferahk], can't he do it again? Given his increasing megalomania can he again accept publicly confessing his failures and apologising? So what happens if he refuses? The fireworks in Zion will be fun to watch. ![]() 5) Yup, and the rest of the Go4 might quietly support the Dohlaran resistance, or separately message the Dohlaran court they disagree and tacitly let them revoke his arrest, for the sake of the church's reputation throughout the rest of the continents. Imagine the fireworks then. ![]() 6) Starting with Father Sulyvyn's spirited detailed defense, the inquisitors may wonder if Charisian justice is faster, but a public split would be fascinating. Then what happens? ![]() 7) I suspect Trynair will explain to Clyntahn in small words that they can't have Dohlar quite the CoGA over such injustice, which might very well happen if they arrest the current national hero. 8) The Desnari high command, what there is of it, knows who's really at fault; they chose Harless, created the pitiful supply system that doomed the AoJ before it started out; if they had any inkling Harless was incompetent, they have given no sign. While Desnar may try to place all the blame on Ahlverez for internal propaganda purposes, who is going to notice or believe them? Especially when the 13,000 survivors get home, NTM the POW's start writing. ![]() Hennet's behavior is unforgivable, but will they blame him at all? I suspect they will have too, given all the aristocrats he abandoned, again compared to Ahlverez, he was pitiful. Given almost 200 years of demonstrated military failure that at least someone was scapegoated for, one wonders if the drill has become formalized, and every family or clan has experienced it in some fashion so they understand what's really going on. But this time there's Merlin's broadsheets! ![]() Nahrmahn and OWL are going to have a great time, perhaps OWL's sense of humor will be demonstrated. ![]() 9) But his experience isn't that great and won't be that helpful; ie don't attack the ICA in fortified positions, don't expose your logistics to enemy action, don't serve under idiots; General Rychtyr already knows these axioms personally after serving under Ahlverez ![]() We don't know how big Rychtyr's army is or if it too was reinforced while Ahlverez was at Fort Tairys, but i wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't around 20,000 when Ahlverez left, and in still less of a position to attack an alliance force of roughly equal numbers, even if Rychtyr was an idiot, which we know he isn't. Given how poor his supply is, I don't see Ahlverez trying to take Hanth from the rear, nor will Merlin etc let him, and not wishing to fight when he can slip across the river to resupply or at least forage as he then moves east; I think he'll do it ASAP, just out of sight (figuratively) of Thesmar, whose garrison is now too small [~10K] to come out to fight or stop him, though the navy may get a few licks in, ie he may have to abandon his artillery etc to get everyone across fast enough. ![]() So there are lots of fascinating things that can happen if Ahlverez isn't arrested or is proven innocent. L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi Don,
Kudos, and thanks and for noticing the very telling point that the Dohlarans had the highest combat casualties, using your lower figure of 60,000 [maybe in the 40-50,000 range] seems closer to fact as Ahlverez himself pointed out about his casualties were simply missing, still being at least half to perhaps two thirds of Ahlverez's initial force; NTM Father Sulyvyn's also thinks of them as his boys [which is one reason I think his report will be both powerful and poignant], so I should've included that in past threads about what Sulyvyn's report contained. ![]() Some of DE's army is and will be delayed dealing with all the POW's etc, but a corps or two might be following Ahlverez and another heading to reinforce Hanth, while the EHM and the Army of Cliff Peak start liberating 'their' province from the south, heading towards the Daivyn while Symkyns, who apparently has more rifles NTM artillery and mortars than Kaitswyrth, surrounds and destroys his army soon after BGV does much the same to Wyrshym's, yet positions EHM and and the AoCP to handle a likely Harchong Army quarter that attempts to replace Kaitswyrth as the central attacking force. Once DE arrives with the rest of the army at Evrytyn, DE will avoid any assault on the Dohlaran fortified positions and strike at their supply lines back into Dohlar forcing them to retreat without a battle, to Clyntahn's fury, but the Dohlarans will have no choice. If our speculation regarding the 'unofficial' Teeny tiny HFQ snippet #2 deals with blowing the barrier in the Salthar Canal, which happens near the same time as the Dohlaran retreat, then yes Dohlar could come under very intense military pressure not only from DE and Hanth etc, but marine raids all along it great coastline, to the fury and fear of all the suffering aristocrats. The fun part is there's nothing they can really do to stop the marine raids, except possibly get themselves killed leading their pitifully armed local militias against them. This might spur a movement to blame everything on King Rahnyld and dump him in favor of a son or grandson that has more brains or common sense, with Thirsk and Ahlverez as likely regents and make whatever accommodation with the alliance they have to for Dohlar to survive. If all this is happening at the same time then yes Clyntahn and his inquisitors may be too busy to arrest Ahlverez, whatever he may want to do. ![]() DE may initially be forced to divert to Dairnyth, less to cut Kaitswyrth's army off from its only supply line than block what I suspect will be the IHA's southern army group, if EHM doesn't beat him to it, after dealing with the IHA's 'army group center'. With a bit of luck, the alliance may find itself advancing through the Border states by fall, with little to stop them from reaching the temple lands and Zion before winter fully hits. Interesting times indeed. ![]() L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi XofDallas,
Excellent points! While I don't think Clyntahn cares whether the atrocities of his concentration camps are revealed, the collapse of the AoG's military position will certainly have him in a froth, the Harchong army must either stay on the canals, which are still ruined, starve or organise itself into smaller armies, which are far easier for the alliance to destroy, while there is little the Go4 can do to stop the ICN blockade of Southern Harchong and its industrial production, now more important, NTM the rest of Howard. The southern continent is increasingly irrelevant to the war on Haven, and if Silkiah is liberated as expected and Dohlar surrenders or is neutralized leaving the Border States defenseless because all their rifles were given to the Harchong, the temple lands will be looking pretty naked by late summer or fall. Then the fun begins with the blame game in the temple, who blames who first? Remember Ahlverez's only 'victory' was the destruction of the doomed fortress of Alykberg; so his resume is more of a negative, ie what did he not do than what has he won situation, not that he isn't far more experienced and dangerous than when he arrived at Thesmar, in no small part due to learning from Harless's incompetence. But I suspect DE has much more to teach him about what an alliance army the same size or bigger can do, especially on the 'open' battlefield. ![]() Clyntahn may indeed try to force Dohlar to keep fighting etc, but if Dohlar's land [communication] link to the temple is cut, ie at Dairnyth, I suspect any remaining inquisitors will not last long. ![]() L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi InvisibleBison,
Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum. ![]() Yup, mercy can be much more powerful than fear if its wise and careful. Greyghor also appears to be very wise, so I think they've already discussed this in one of their late night drinking sessions. ![]() Past threads have dwelt on non-negotiable religious tolerance, ie no hatred preached over the pulpit etc for any treaties with former enemies, among other things. Perhaps revisiting that concept is due again. ![]() L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi SYED,
Very likely they will be starving somewhat, but Ahlverez's army had already made it halfway [~300 miles] to Thesmar in ~7-8 days according to the one chapter in March 897 YoG, so they had some supplies to start with, and they are marching through farmland that saw little or no major fighting so far this year, so foraging, and they need only 72 tons of food per day, and if the cavalry is less than 8,000 [7,752 or a dozen full regiments] less than 120 tons of fodder. If they keep to a 40 mile per day rate, that's 256,000 acres per day within 5 miles of the route of march, or just 1.5 pounds of food or fodder per acre per day. Even if half was destroyed or abandoned, they should be able to find much more than that average from the TL majority of farmers still there. Since the first 3 King Haarahld VII's won't complete until July NTM travel time, it will take some time before the ICN imposes its will upon Dohlar, unless Thirsk is spectacularly defeated, which I don't see happening, given Thirsk's anticipated future role in Dohlar. ![]() So yes, it might take long enough for the border struggle with DE might compete for resources for coastal defense. You may well be right that Dohlar was settled along the coast and grew inland, but the border with Siddarmark is so simple and arbitrary it was probably made long before human settlements complicated things, and perhaps we'll find out in HFQ. ![]() If DE comes quickly with 50,000 of his men [leaving ~20,000 to deal with the POW's] he and Hanth then would number around 70,000 men; too strong for either Rychtyr and Ahlverez to stop separately or combined, though DE probably will simply compel their retreat by threatening their supply line back to Dohlar, and no they can't thin themselves out to cover the whole border and stop him along a ~900 mile border. You're quite right again that the likely Dohlar border defenses with the republic are now considerably obsolete [are they simply a wall like China's but built over centuries or something much simpler?], especially to the ICA's artillery, even before any new explosive shells arrive, but thanks to Merlin and his seijins, DE won't besiege or assault them, just break through where they're weakest. I suspect that while the marine raids will be very annoying and occasionally quite destructive, they will not approach the levels required for a real invasion, and since armies prefer to avoid such whenever they can, so the land border will always and rightly been seen as the most serious threat to Dohlar's survival, however frustrating to all the shoreline aristocrats. L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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lyonheart
Posts: 4853
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Hi JMSeeley,
Kudos for restating the relationship between Desnar and Dohlar, and Desnar's reaction to any Desnari charges. Clyntahn arresting Ahlverez after he's become the CoGA's biggest hero, NTM Dohlar and Desnar's [the 13,000 infantry have to have some relatives] would be the cherry on top of all his doozy mistakes. ![]() Rychtyr has another army though we don't know its size, or that of its reinforcements yet. Yet against an apparent foe well over 100,000 men strong, even 30-40,000 men pales trying to defend a border 900+ miles long is obviously doomed. So regarding options 1 and 2; A Sherman's style march through Dohlar might satisfy the republic's desire for revenge, but would be bad long term especially if it had to be broken off to deal with TMHoGatA or some large contingent thereof, and Dohlar feels its been saved by divine providence or TMHoGatA, either of them even if later defeated would make Dohlarans more intransigent. Taking Dairnyth if Symkyn is slow destroying Kaitswyrth, would certainly tick off Clyntahn, but it would also bury all of Clyntahn's machinations subverting Allayn's authority, which I don't think is going to happen for some reason. ![]() Either can spell plenty of trouble for the Jihad, but given the King Haarahld' VII's won't arrive in the Gulf of Dohlar until late July or August, Dairnyth seems the more probable, because its more effective for the time period while DE's 70,000 men can't control or guard his logistics that deep into Dohlar, though he might consider destroying or demolishing most of the old border defenses as he moves toward Dairnyth. ![]() L
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: Dohlar and Destabilization | |
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Weird Harold
Posts: 4478
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A very rational analysis, but your whole argument hinges on Clyntahn being rational too. IMHO, Clyntahn is anything but rational. He doesn't need "proof" beyond the mere fact of Ahlvarez' survival; that is proof enough that he lacks sufficient faith to die for the Church's glory. .
. . Answers! I got lots of answers! (Now if I could just find the right questions.) |
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