Question: Mesan/Monican plan to take the Lynx Terminus

In discussing the MAlign's intent and the various strategic conceptions, people have lost sight of the fact that the original post was from someone reading the series for the first time, and had only read Shadow of Saganami. A lot of the additional detail is from later books, so should--for the benefit of the original poster -- be labeled as potential spoiler.

Also, the reader's perspective (especially after several more books) changes your perspective a bit.

But you don't really have to go into any of the later stuff. There are a great many parallels to the sequence that are like the Havenite plan to seize Basilisk in OBS.

First, the Mesan plan is dependent for success on two factors: first, the extremely weak defenses of the Terminus detachment (which came from Khumalo's already small and mostly obsolete forces); a single light cruiser and a couple of tin cans. The forts were not operational yet, and weren't expected to be by the Admiralty for some months after they sent their hasty reinforcements--which wasn't until Khumalo was already moving on Monica. So, very weak in system defenses.

A second parallel, is that the operation is depending on the Manticoran public not supporting an all out war over a region not integral to their Kingdom. The Peeps knew the Manticoran public dreaded the war, and believed a quick grab would be allowed as preferable to all-out war over the system belonging to aliens (Stilties). Manticore's lack of political consensus and the large number of Havenite apologists (Liberals, Progressives) made Basilisk attractive as a target.

Equally, it wouldn't be hard to sell Monica on the idea that Manticore would hesitate to respond in force because Monica was an OFS client state (and could get official support); that the new hostilities in the Haven Sector left Manticore dangerously understrength at home; that the terminus, being 600 plus LY from Manticore would take warships away from the critical defense of their own and their allies home systems--for several months; and that if Tyler & Co. got OFS and some FF or BF units to Lynx terminus, that the Manticorans would NOT start another war, where the numbers would overwhelm their tech. It also plays on the known--and strong--resentment of the League over Manticore's control of the Junction and its vast merchant activity.

And a last detail, which is sort of a spoiler: Anisimovna did NOT KNOW the full MAlign plan, and she intended to have the plan work out as it was laid out.

Which it might well have, except that RFC put Terekhov in a Sag-C and let him stumble on the Jessyk supply ship Maryanne.

Regards,

Rob

SharkHunter wrote:

n7axw wrote:I wonder how long it would take for the RMN to get there, weeks? Months? In the meantime the quadrant is isolated and has only what was already in the area for defense...

Don

Would it though? I'm assuming that ever since OBS, and at least since the discovery of the Lynx terminus, there's at least a ready reserve of SOME RMN ships within close range of the junction, and that the junction courier (first mentioned in OBS) hyper's back into RMN space broadcasting a "terminus zulu", because the RMN ain't stupid and they know that retaking a terminus is a copper-plated -itch. if you know what I mean.

So even if you just make the "junction strike defense force" even just one Aggie, a Nike, or an SD(p) with a small screen, ready to jump through, they'd be able to put up enough of a defense of any "non-Haven" terminus long enough for other ships to arrive.

I would argue that the Monican BCs were meant from the start to be toast as soon as they engaged the RMN anywhere, but to at least capture some tech in the mean time, and get OFS and Byng to jump in.

Sharkhunter, you are overlooking a couple of things.

First, that the only Nike in existence had just reported to 8th Fleet, so if it was at home at all, it was at San Martin. The fleet units at the junction when Hexapuma made initial transit were Andies because of all the home fleet detachments left them too weak to protect their own space.

And the first squadron of Aggies were sent to 8th Fleet also; how many were in commission /combat ready by the time of Monica is something not in the text.

As for the "ready reserve" function, that was 8th Fleet's job, when it wasn't raiding. With Third Fleet at Trevor's Star, once Buttercup started, there was no need at all for a force to be at the Junction, and Manticore didn't have the ships for it once Thunderbolt hit.

So 8th Fleet anchored itself at San Martin Terminus. Which is why Chin thought Kuzak was 8th Fleet, especially when McKeon killed a few of her ships.

Home Fleet would have taken a few hours to respond to an invasion of Lynx terminus; during which time, the Monicans mine the terminus.

Finally, when you make a wormhole transit, your ship is under sail--no wedges, no sidewall, no sensor data yet--and a really big obvious hyperfootprint. Even in a mass transit, the invading force of BCs using missiles, and beam weapons, could kill a dozen or more of your SDs or SDPs. Assuming you had them to send. And if you don't, the Monicans have several months to get the Mandarins to back them (which, the Mesan agents said they would).

Regards,

Rob

edited because.

kzt wrote:They can establish control. They get to keep it until a few RMN BatRons show up via Hyper to kill them all.

Dafmeister wrote:
Which will take a fair while, given that Lynx is over 600 light years from the nearest RMN battle squadron. Plenty of time to get Byng into place and arrange a nice little shooting incident.

n7axw wrote:
I wonder how long it would take for the RMN to get there, weeks? Months? In the meantime the quadrant is isolated and has only what was already in the area for defense...

Don

At 600 light years (assuming there isn't another wormhole they could use to skip closer) you're looking at upwards of something like 75 - 85 days. That's top speed in the Theta or Eta bands (respectively) for 600 light years, and that excludes any acceleration time or detours.

(And except for courier ships or a real emergency nobody pushes the upper edges of the Theta bands; well unless you're the MAlign and can skip past those into the Iota and Kappa bands)

So the better part of 3 months, if not more.


On the other hand, it occurs to me that there's almost certainly enough combat power "trapped" in the Talbott sector (even back then) to retake the Terminus from that side.

Everybody that went with Hexapuma to Monica, plus the old Samothrace-class SD, plus whatever ships were on other patrol routes, and all the pods the ammo ships can bring along.
Oh, and the Technodyle pods and BCs shouldn't be a surprise for the counter attack, plus there's no in-use civilian station to refrain firing near, so you can light up the area with ghost rider drones and start putting Mk16s downrange from really far out (to clear out any pods the BC's might have).

David should have allowed the plan to work. At least for a while. It would have given the MA and hence the SLN full MDMs, which would have made the last few battles much less of a turkey shoot.

SharkHunter wrote:

n7axw wrote:I wonder how long it would take for the RMN to get there, weeks? Months? In the meantime the quadrant is isolated and has only what was already in the area for defense...

Don

Would it though? I'm assuming that ever since OBS, and at least since the discovery of the Lynx terminus, there's at least a ready reserve of SOME RMN ships within close range of the junction, and that the junction courier (first mentioned in OBS) hyper's back into RMN space broadcasting a "terminus zulu", because the RMN ain't stupid and they know that retaking a terminus is a copper-plated -itch. if you know what I mean.

So even if you just make the "junction strike defense force" even just one Aggie, a Nike, or an SD(p) with a small screen, ready to jump through, they'd be able to put up enough of a defense of any "non-Haven" terminus long enough for other ships to arrive.

I would argue that the Monican BCs were meant from the start to be toast as soon as they engaged the RMN anywhere, but to at least capture some tech in the mean time, and get OFS and Byng to jump in.

It is possible that you are right, but I don't think there is any textev to support your assertion. Remember that Manticore regarded the area at that point as being pretty low on the threat level scale. Aivair's adventures were really the first trouble there. Add in to that the reality that Manticore is pretty heavily preoccupied with surviving against the Republic.

Don

By golly y'all are right, we have no textev about keeping some form of quick intervention force near the junction, especially out towards Lynx, which is why Admiral Blaine liked seeing more modern ships of any kind out "his way" other than the incompleted forts I was thinking about the fact that in OBS, Honor told Venizuelos to commandeer the first "junction courier" and hyper in with the case Zulu warnings.

Still, it makes sense that given OBS and otherwise, the Caparelli/Givens admiralty would keep something on station at Manticore's end while building the forts, because White Haven himself has that as a priority [don't wait till a fort is complete to have missiles supplied] after his emergency rescue of Basilisk via the Junction from Trevor's star.

Certainly not a big enough force to stand off the Havenites, but I'd hope big enough to at least put up a fight against anyone else that got uppity. So my thought was "big hyper footprint at Lynx" would trigger the junction courier and some kind of immediate defensive response, even if it were just last-gen surviving ships with limpeted pods.

I would anyway...

snipped commentary on the movement of reinforcements from Manticore to the Lynx T.

Jonathan_S wrote:On the other hand, it occurs to me that there's almost certainly enough combat power "trapped" in the Talbott sector (even back then) to retake the Terminus from that side.

Everybody that went with Hexapuma to Monica, plus the old Samothrace-class SD, plus whatever ships were on other patrol routes, and all the pods the ammo ships can bring along.
Oh, and the Technodyle pods and BCs shouldn't be a surprise for the counter attack, plus there's no in-use civilian station to refrain firing near, so you can light up the area with ghost rider drones and start putting Mk16s downrange from really far out (to clear out any pods the BC's might have).

I agree that there was enough firepower in Talbot, with support from pods. But it wouldn't have been able to respond quickly enough.

The Mesans knew something about Manti tech superiority, but the Sag-C and its missiles were brand new. The Mesan op counted on any reinforcements to Talbott to be what Khumalo already had--what was left after the bar rag was wrung out.

Maybe the BC's wouldn't be a surprise--someone would have gotten out-- but the pods might be. The Monican/Mesan plan was to sequester all the merchant ships present (as hostages.) If they didn't deploy the pods in sensor range of ships transiting out, then no report of pods gets to Khumalo, whatever might get back to Manticore.

The ships Terekhov took to Monica would still have existed (a majority of Khumalo's "southern patrol"?) and there may or may not have been similar ships on the "northern patrol." But they were scattered all over; a surprise arrival of unknown BCs of Solarian origin claiming to be Monica would have caught Khumalo/Medusa by surprise.

They'd need to send the dispatch boats to concentrate their forces, wait for them to arrive and resupply, then depart for the terminus. This would take weeks to spread the word to assemble, to assemble, and another week or two to get from Spindle to the Terminus.

All while not knowing if other forces--like Thurgood's cruisers--will be coming in the back door. And although the southern patrol had a pair of heavy cruisers in Warlock and Vigilant, we don't know whether Hexapuma was the second, or the only, heavy cruiser in the Northern Patrol. Hexapuma and Aegis may very well have been the only ships more modern than the Star Knights; and it was never actually stated what class the DDs Janissary and Javelin were (I expect Javelin class, though).

With the system defense pods to use against Hercules and the cruisers, and backing from FF/OFS, it doesn't look so bad from the Mesan perspective--and it would derail the annexation, which was still stalled in committee at Spindle. That was the primary aim of most of the entire op, for MAlign.

And, with so many of his ships being older types, just how many pods would the ammo ships--there were only two--have had on hand for local use? SDMs for both the older DDs and Mk 13s for the Star Knights, as well as something for Hercules would have been using up at least some of the storage space. . . .

Just the time it took for Khumalo to assemble his forces would have given Technodyne time to raid the for-tresses for Manticoran tech, which was all Technodyne and Mesa really wanted from the op. Whether ships come from Manticore via hyper, or from Spindle, Technodyne gets at least a couple months to grab whatever they can.

Regards, Rob

SharkHunter wrote:By golly y'all are right, we have no textev about keeping some form of quick intervention force near the junction, especially out towards Lynx, which is why Admiral Blaine liked seeing more modern ships of any kind out "his way" other than the incompleted forts I was thinking about the fact that in OBS, Honor told Venizuelos to commandeer the first "junction courier" and hyper in with the case Zulu warnings.

Still, it makes sense that given OBS and otherwise, the Caparelli/Givens admiralty would keep something on station at Manticore's end while building the forts, because White Haven himself has that as a priority [don't wait till a fort is complete to have missiles supplied] after his emergency rescue of Basilisk via the Junction from Trevor's star.

Certainly not a big enough force to stand off the Havenites, but I'd hope big enough to at least put up a fight against anyone else that got uppity. So my thought was "big hyper footprint at Lynx" would trigger the junction courier and some kind of immediate defensive response, even if it were just last-gen surviving ships with limpeted pods.

I would anyway...

Text. bold added
Regards, Rob

Shadow of Saganami wrote:
Helen Zilwicki sat at Lieutenant Commander Wright's elbow, assigned to Astrogation for this evolution. Astrogation was far from her favorite duty in the universe, but just this once she preferred her present assignment to Ragnhild's. The blond, freckled midshipwoman was seated beside Lieutenant Commander Kaplan, which was usually the position Helen most coveted. But that was usually, when the astrogation plot and the visual display didn't show the Central Terminus of the Manticoran Wormhole Junction.
The Manticore System's G0 primary was dim, scarcely visible seven light-hours behind them, and its G2 companion was still farther away and dimmer. Yet the space about Hexapuma was far from empty. A sizable chunk of Home Fleet was deployed out here, ready to dash through the Junction to reinforce Third Fleet at Trevor's Star at need, or to cover the Basilisk System against a repeat of the attack which had devastated it in the previous war. And, of course, to protect the Junction itself.
snip
Helen Zilwicki sat at Lieutenant Commander Wright's elbow, assigned to Astrogation for this evolution. Astrogation was far from her favorite duty in the universe, but just this once she preferred her present assignment to Ragnhild's. The blond, freckled midshipwoman was seated beside Lieutenant Commander Kaplan, which was usually the position Helen most coveted. But that was usually, when the astrogation plot and the visual display didn't show the Central Terminus of the Manticoran Wormhole Junction.
The Manticore System's G0 primary was dim, scarcely visible seven light-hours behind them, and its G2 companion was still farther away and dimmer. Yet the space about Hexapuma was far from empty. A sizable chunk of Home Fleet was deployed out here, ready to dash through the Junction to reinforce Third Fleet at Trevor's Star at need, or to cover the Basilisk System against a repeat of the attack which had devastated it in the previous war. And, of course, to protect the Junction itself.

--snip--

Shadow of Saganami wrote:Yet the space about Hexapuma was far from empty. A sizable chunk of Home Fleet was deployed out here, ready to dash through the Junction to reinforce Third Fleet at Trevor's Star at need, or to cover the Basilisk System against a repeat of the attack which had devastated it in the previous war. And, of course, to protect the Junction itself.

--end snip--

Brilliant textev! That is what makes this enjoyable. Given that we only know the plan that Anisimovna knew at that point, I think y'all are right, the Lynx terminus wasn't really in play, but without Hexapuma catching them where he did, the Monican cruisers in toto would have been in a pretty good position as an attack force, though I don't know how much useful tech that the Sollie side/OFS, etc. would have got out of it.

I can't think of too many situations where the RMN commanders didn't slag their computers, etc. and I'd assume that -- for example when Prince Adrian surrendered, that includes everything inside the missiles, etc. with a push of a button.

SharkHunter wrote:--snip--

Shadow of Saganami wrote:Yet the space about Hexapuma was far from empty. A sizable chunk of Home Fleet was deployed out here, ready to dash through the Junction to reinforce Third Fleet at Trevor's Star at need, or to cover the Basilisk System against a repeat of the attack which had devastated it in the previous war. And, of course, to protect the Junction itself.

--end snip--

Brilliant textev! That is what makes this enjoyable. Given that we only know the plan that Anisimovna knew at that point, I think y'all are right, the Lynx terminus wasn't really in play, but without Hexapuma catching them where he did, the Monican cruisers in toto would have been in a pretty good position as an attack force, though I don't know how much useful tech that the Sollie side/OFS, etc. would have got out of it.

I can't think of too many situations where the RMN commanders didn't slag their computers, etc. and I'd assume that -- for example when Prince Adrian surrendered, that includes everything inside the missiles, etc. with a push of a button.

Well unless you physically blow the multi-drive missiles to plasma there's a depressingly good chance that someone reverse engineering them could get major clues to how the key to them works (the "baffle" trick).

That baffle a fairly gross-scale bit of engineering around the drive node rings. The exact internal molycirc that generated the baffle might be protected against reverse engineering, but the fact that there are extra grav emitters down there seems like it would be kind of hard to miss.

Also you might not be able to recover as much from a microfusion reactor, but it's also a fairly large piece of engineering that's hard to safely destroy finely enough to prevent useful examination of the pieces (at least while the missiles are still in your pod bay or magazines).