Merchantmen, speed, and trade cartels

Spinning off an independant thread from another thread's derailment, and adding in some of my own thoughts... merchantmen and speed.


Assumptions:

1) All ponderings, and musing is being based on MAlign, Solarian League has been split apart into Maya style blocks, and peace (more or less) has returned.

2) That no notable merchant-types have died between now and the mystical point in time of point 1

3) the tech imbalance between military forces have roughly equalized once again. Or at the very least, the open balance of ships that are known are equals.

4) Merchants will continue acting as we're generally aware they do currently, which hasn't seemed to change at all in the 20ish years of the Havenite War(s).

5) That the Junction continues to operate as has been, and that we don't suddenly learn it's actually possible to go from Terminus directly to another Terminus, bypassing the Junction(s) they connect to.
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Assumptions being listed, does anyone else picture Hauptman deciding to go for another edge in his trading and souping up his freighters, ala Quarn from the Fury-verse?

At the minimum, I see him producing at least a few (dozen) sets of ships that include the following "military-grade" tech:
-hyper generators plus particle shielding
-compensators (higher top speeds and acceleration)

And I really only see him maintaining these military-ish freighters for a short time. Basically he'd only build and maintain them, early on... while everyone's figuring out new trade routes as a way to lock-into new routes.

"Say... you want X cargo(s) delivered to you in System Y? Well, it just so happens, I have some high-speed bulk freighters that can reach Zeta/Eta band, instead of the usual Epsilon. Care to sign a deal giving the Hauptman Cartel exclusive rights for the next 100 years?"


My reasoning is as follows:
1) He is/was heavily involved in ship production prior to First Havenite War, and continued throughout both wars. Additionally he also invested heavily into Blackbird yards in Grayson, and presumably also had investments at Yorik, Grendlesbane, and other yards. Also a good assumption he invested, again, into the post-Yawata Strike shipyards.

2) Using his knowledge, derived from point 1, his Atlas-class liners that did the Silesia run had, previously unheard of, levels of technology. In HH6, Honor was surprised that the Atlas had the same technology her Homer-class Nike had, just 3 years earlier (in HH3). That included everything except the FTL comms, and full stealth systems.

Now I'd expect that since Honor was surprised, this meant she wasn't briefed on the Atlas' capabilities. Since it wasn't a Janacek Admiralty, they would have briefed Honor properly on anything she might encounter (friendlies in addition to possible hostiles). This would further imply Hauptman did it on the sly, and just never mentioned how much technology he did put into the Atlases.

3) I believe Hauptman was also heavily involved, in the Grayson-inspired JNMTC concept. Taking standard (civilian) freighters, and upgrading them to basically pocket unarmed warships (sensors, defenses, and speed)

4) Hauptman was also very heavily involved (boy, he's heavily involved in everything isn't he? ) in building frigates for the ASL/Ballroom.

Since the Nat Turner's are essentially hyper-capable Shrikes, and Hauptman's other access producing just about everything else, the frigates probably also have considerable amounts of Manticoran-tech in them. Maybe not the absolute latest, but Buttercup-era tech (including compensators, and ECM) is almost a certainty.



So Hauptman's basically heavily involved in just about anything relating to shipyards. And that he already has, on at least two occasion (Nat Turners and Atlas liners), included military-grade tech into "civilian" ships. Would he go ahead and make those high-speed bulk freighters to lock-in new trade routes and get a good lock on those new markets?

Or for that matter, does anyone picture anyone else doing the same thing, perhaps the Rembrandt Trade Union?

Somtaaw wrote:2) Using his knowledge, derived from point 1, his Atlas-class liners that did the Silesia run had, previously unheard of, levels of technology. In HH6, Honor was surprised that the Atlas had the same technology her Homer-class Nike had, just 3 years earlier (in HH3). That included everything except the FTL comms, and full stealth systems.

Now I'd expect that since Honor was surprised, this meant she wasn't briefed on the Atlas' capabilities. Since it wasn't a Janacek Admiralty, they would have briefed Honor properly on anything she might encounter (friendlies in addition to possible hostiles). This would further imply Hauptman did it on the sly, and just never mentioned how much technology he did put into the Atlases.

Not quite. The textev does say "We've got the same electronic suite the Homer-class battlecruisers started the war with, and we've received most of the Phase One and Two upgrades, including the decoys and EW drones."

House of Steel says this about the Homer:

Because of experience with Service Life Extension Program refits for earlier classes, the Homers were built for ease of upgrade. Paradoxically, this was one of the principle justifications for the delay in their prewar refits, as the RMN knew it could be done comparatively quickly. Until the start of the First Havenite War, updates to the electronics and fire control systems were repeatedly deferred in favor of funneling more resources into the Reliant-class building program. With the onset of hostilities, the Homers received defensive armament and compensator upgrades, to increase their ability to get in close, where their short-ranged armament could be used to greatest effect.

The Phase One and Two upgrades refer to some of those upgrades, but the Homer was about forty years old at the outbreak of war. Honor's Nike, on the other hand, was a brand new Reliant class battlecruiser.

The problem with this kind of speculation is, we don't actually know anything about the specifics of how much more expensive military grade propulsion systems are compared to the generic civilian stuff. Not only that, they are also more maintenance intensive(RMN ships pull in every few years, but some tramp merchants go more than a decade without).

I actually think it's more likely one or several of the Solarian shipping lines might attempt to install military grade hyperdrives(perhaps purchasing them from the SLN's reserve stock of about... 8,000?) in order to compensate for the lost/interrupted access to wormholes.

[edit]Too hard to tell.

Being that the materials cost of a merchant ship are next to nothing. All the cost is bound up in what it takes to produce the components. The fusion plant, impellers, hyper generator, compensator and enviro plant.

Manning the ships is also in there as well. If it takes 3 times as many people to man a courier boat as a merchant ship. Courier boat fits into a a cargo hold. So you just tripled operational cost.

Also military equipment requires much more costly maintenance cycle. Adding additionally to operational costs.

Just the military impellers take ~50% more space cutting into cargo capacity if we assume the same for the rest ... I really don't know.

If you can have three times the speed but five times the cost the answer is no. If you can have three times the speed at 1.5 times the cost the answer is yes.

Only thing we really know is that travel and freight hauling is going to go through massive changes. Right now Manticore has a huge surplus of ships. I suspect getting those currently idle ships in use will be enough in the short term post war. Much like Liberty and Victory ships dominated shipping until something like the 60's. Then things slowly changed. Probably more impacted by the manufacturing base of the rest of the world also changing.

Anybody who can figure out how all that will play out will receive my utmost respect if not adoration.

Good question and like most good questions it raises more questions than answers.

Have a fun weekend,
T2M

If David cared about economics the post OB economy would be drastically different. A lot of people are going to go bankrupt, and then their creditors and insurers will go bankrupt.

Somtaaw wrote:Spinning off an independant thread from another thread's derailment, and adding in some of my own thoughts... merchantmen and speed.


Assumptions:

1) All ponderings, and musing is being based on MAlign, Solarian League has been split apart into Maya style blocks, and peace (more or less) has returned.

I'm not sure what you mean by "Malign" without saying what it is about the MAlign. Has it been rooted out? Has it gone to ground elsewhere? If so, what is it doing?

Somtaaw wrote:2) That no notable merchant-types have died between now and the mystical point in time of point 1

3) the tech imbalance between military forces have roughly equalized once again. Or at the very least, the open balance of ships that are known are equals.

4) Merchants will continue acting as we're generally aware they do currently, which hasn't seemed to change at all in the 20ish years of the Havenite War(s).

5) That the Junction continues to operate as has been, and that we don't suddenly learn it's actually possible to go from Terminus directly to another Terminus, bypassing the Junction(s) they connect to.
----------

Assumptions being listed, does anyone else picture Hauptman deciding to go for another edge in his trading and souping up his freighters, ala Quarn from the Fury-verse?

At the minimum, I see him producing at least a few (dozen) sets of ships that include the following "military-grade" tech:
-hyper generators plus particle shielding
-compensators (higher top speeds and acceleration)

And I really only see him maintaining these military-ish freighters for a short time. Basically he'd only build and maintain them, early on... while everyone's figuring out new trade routes as a way to lock-into new routes.

"Say... you want X cargo(s) delivered to you in System Y? Well, it just so happens, I have some high-speed bulk freighters that can reach Zeta/Eta band, instead of the usual Epsilon. Care to sign a deal giving the Hauptman Cartel exclusive rights for the next 100 years?"


My reasoning is as follows:
1) He is/was heavily involved in ship production prior to First Havenite War, and continued throughout both wars. Additionally he also invested heavily into Blackbird yards in Grayson, and presumably also had investments at Yorik, Grendlesbane, and other yards. Also a good assumption he invested, again, into the post-Yawata Strike shipyards.

2) Using his knowledge, derived from point 1, his Atlas-class liners that did the Silesia run had, previously unheard of, levels of technology. In HH6, Honor was surprised that the Atlas had the same technology her Homer-class Nike had, just 3 years earlier (in HH3). That included everything except the FTL comms, and full stealth systems.

Now I'd expect that since Honor was surprised, this meant she wasn't briefed on the Atlas' capabilities. Since it wasn't a Janacek Admiralty, they would have briefed Honor properly on anything she might encounter (friendlies in addition to possible hostiles). This would further imply Hauptman did it on the sly, and just never mentioned how much technology he did put into the Atlases.

3) I believe Hauptman was also heavily involved, in the Grayson-inspired JNMTC concept. Taking standard (civilian) freighters, and upgrading them to basically pocket unarmed warships (sensors, defenses, and speed)

4) Hauptman was also very heavily involved (boy, he's heavily involved in everything isn't he? ) in building frigates for the ASL/Ballroom.

Since the Nat Turner's are essentially hyper-capable Shrikes, and Hauptman's other access producing just about everything else, the frigates probably also have considerable amounts of Manticoran-tech in them. Maybe not the absolute latest, but Buttercup-era tech (including compensators, and ECM) is almost a certainty.

No, the Nat Turners are not hyper-capable Shrikes. RFC said at one point you could think of them as two Shrikes end-to-end, but then he walked that idea back as being insufficient.

Somtaaw wrote:So Hauptman's basically heavily involved in just about anything relating to shipyards. And that he already has, on at least two occasion (Nat Turners and Atlas liners), included military-grade tech into "civilian" ships. Would he go ahead and make those high-speed bulk freighters to lock-in new trade routes and get a good lock on those new markets?

Or for that matter, does anyone picture anyone else doing the same thing, perhaps the Rembrandt Trade Union?

There are already fast freighters that have upgraded hyper generators, particle shielding and compensators. Montana ships its products (beef, highly perishable) in them.

Time is money. If Herlander Simoes, Zach McBryde and the crew at Bolthole can get the Streak Drive tamed down so that it isn't the maintenance hog it appears to be (twice the size of a military-grade hyper drive), a streak drive that would let a bottom-tier freighter go one band higher without too much extra cost would revolutionize transport. In particular, it would reduce the leverage from hyper bridges, since it would have more reach for the same time.

Somtaaw wrote:3) I believe Hauptman was also heavily involved, in the Grayson-inspired JNMTC concept. Taking standard (civilian) freighters, and upgrading them to basically pocket unarmed warships (sensors, defenses, and speed)

From your JNMTC link:

Small and medium sized freighters were refit by Manticoran and Grayson shipyards to install sidewalls, missile defenses, rudimentary electronic warfare packages, upgraded sensors, and military-grade hyper generators. The costs of the upgrades was so expensive as to be financially inefficient, but the military efficiency and the war with the Republic of Haven made the idea palatable.

The main reason that only specialized freighters have any upgrades to make them faster is because most cargos won't make any more money if they arrive faster. Merchants/freighters are driven by the "bottom line" and spending more for more capable ships without an equal or greater increase in profits is simply not done.

Eventually, starships will become faster and/or more efficient, but it will be a very slow evolution rather than an overnight revolution. Small specialist transports -- like Montana Beef transports -- are going to employ new technology sooner than ore carriers, and ore carriers are only going to adopt "new" technology when it is considered nearly obsolete by those who transport more perishable/profitable goods.

Weird Harold wrote:The main reason that only specialized freighters have any upgrades to make them faster is because most cargos won't make any more money if they arrive faster. Merchants/freighters are driven by the "bottom line" and spending more for more capable ships without an equal or greater increase in profits is simply not done.

Eventually, starships will become faster and/or more efficient, but it will be a very slow evolution rather than an overnight revolution. Small specialist transports -- like Montana Beef transports -- are going to employ new technology sooner than ore carriers, and ore carriers are only going to adopt "new" technology when it is considered nearly obsolete by those who transport more perishable/profitable gods.

A good Real World Analogy is the ships called "Windjammers" - These were usually steel hulled, multimasted sailing ships which were built around 1900. Economics had some of them plying the seas on regular routes into the 1950s moving bulk goods.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windjammer

Just like today, something like the Honorverse would have a multi-tiered model, all depending on what the market will pay for them. There will be everything from large slow bulk freighters (or container ships) to small fast parcel ships (Like Fed-ex overnight planes) for people will ing to pay a substancial premium for the service.

Unless the cost per package economics of the slower service raises to the cost of the faster (or vice versa) most will chose the slower service.

Most of the existing merchant ships now in service in the Honorverse will contine for probably at least decades if not encountering problems like pirates (where perhaps will not be destroyed but the ownership will change) or get caught up in the commerce raiding that seems to be coming in the conflict with the SL.

Streak Drive ships- after the tech becomes available to anyone other than the Alignment- will probably be limited to 1st military ships and then to highly specialized transports for high value premium products.

The largest problem that face most of the merchant spacers at this point is finding enough business at a price to support the operating and debt service costs on their ships (and crews) and still make a profit. With the politial and military situations in flux with the SL, Manticore, Haven and other places, there are going to be a lot of pressures that can cause any of the companies (single ships or multi-ship lines) into bankrupsty or cause the loss of ships. At this point, any of the SL flagged ships are very lucky that Manticore has not interned if not ourtright seized them when they have attempted to use the Junction or enter any Manticore controlled territory. That doesn't take into account that being forced to take a purely hyperspace route home instead of using any of the Manticore controlled wormholes is probably going to lead to the ship being seized by the financing lenders when the ships miss deadlines (and the penalties in the contracts) and have had to take months longer to get to destinations.

Brigade XO wrote:Streak Drive ships- after the tech becomes available to anyone other than the Alignment- will probably be limited to 1st military ships and then to highly specialized transports for high value premium products.

I suspect that it will be showing up in couriers before warships due to couriers being cheaper and faster to build and Streak Drive couriers being even more useful than Streak Drive warships

Grashtel wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:Streak Drive ships- after the tech becomes available to anyone other than the Alignment- will probably be limited to 1st military ships and then to highly specialized transports for high value premium products.

I suspect that it will be showing up in couriers before warships due to couriers being cheaper and faster to build and Streak Drive couriers being even more useful than Streak Drive warships

Streak Drives will be useful/economical for:

1: Luxury Liners/Yachts providing transport for people rich enough to value time over money.

2: Newsnet dispatch boats where getting the scoop on your competitors means making more money.

3: Financial and diplomatic couriers; again, "time is money" enough to make a difference.

4: Perishable goods transports; More distance in the same time frame widens the market for perishable goods.

5: Military scouts/dispatch boats. Moreso than major combatants and logistics, scouts and dispatch boats need to be fast.

Streak Drives will probably filter down into new build merchanters once the cost comes down through supplying the classes listed above. Eventually Streak Drives will become the "standard" but it will take a century or two for older, slower ships to wear out and be replaced.