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Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war

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Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by Bruno Behrends   » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:29 am

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I discovered this article on the vox.com site and found it rather sobering.

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war

The authors present a couple of scenarios of how the current tensions might inadvertedly lead to World War III.
These scenarios hopefully won't come to pass - they may even be unlikely - I hope! - but they do not sound as unlikely as I would wish.

The authors' reasoning and description where my own country's possible reaction to a provocative scenario in the Baltic states is concerned goes pretty well in hand with my own perception of what's going on here at home. I'd say the authors pretty well nail the German dilemma.

For that - and other reasons - I think its quite likely they nail several other points too. Unfortunately.
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by HB of CJ   » Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:04 pm

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I for one think that smarter heads MAY prevail and some sort of deal drawing things out will probably be done. However ... in that long run, it might not be actually addressing the core problems and concerns at all. In fact, drawing things out and playing for time might just make things actually worse ... somewhere down the road. Just me. HB
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by Michael Riddell   » Wed Jul 01, 2015 11:55 am

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It will be very interesting to see what happens in Greece. With the EU now playing hardball with Tsipras's government, I wonder how the referendum on Sunday will turn out?

Mike. :?:
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Gonnae no DAE that!

Why?

Just gonnae NO!
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by Taras_Potatos   » Mon Jul 06, 2015 1:52 am

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Image

Greek No vote wins referendum with over 61% of votes.
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by SCC   » Mon Jul 06, 2015 6:48 am

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We won't see a war until someone tries to annex some land and the people living there don't want to belong to the annexing country.

The Ukraine citizens that don't want to be Ukrainian, the US can't interfere in that, without stepping on the hole concept of democracy.

Russia sending troops in to help those people? Again the US can't interfere in that, without stepping on the hole concept of democracy.

Russians thinking that the Ukraine should still be a part of Russia? Again the US can't interfere in that, without stepping on the hole concept of democracy, at least as long as Russia doesn't try to annex Ukraine.
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:02 am

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Not that I think the US should be sending in the troops or anything... but:

SCC wrote:We won't see a war until someone tries to annex some land and the people living there don't want to belong to the annexing country.

The Ukraine citizens that don't want to be Ukrainian, the US can't interfere in that, without stepping on the hole concept of democracy.


You may be confusing "complete personal autonomy" with "democracy". Being able to point at individuals who don't like their government is not the same thing as citing the democratically expressed will of the population.


Or, I missed the Ukrainian-wide referendum on being re-integrated into Russia? Assuming I didn't, then I have to assume you're talking about "there are some people living over there that don't like their government, let's send in the troops and take over all the land there. Democracy!"


Which isn't how it works. (Or... the US should expect to have half it's territory "democratically liberated" by foreign armies after every single national election when the side that lost all have a freakout.)


Russia sending troops in to help those people? Again the US can't interfere in that, without stepping on the hole concept of democracy.


I'm pretty sure when you send the troops in FIRST, and then (in the case of Crimea at least) hold a "referendum" under armed guard that the UN doesn't recognize the legitimacy of while refusing to allow election monitors we're not talking about "democracy" again.
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by Tenshinai   » Mon Jul 06, 2015 11:54 am

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gcomeau wrote:Or, I missed the Ukrainian-wide referendum on being re-integrated into Russia?


None such, but IIRC at least 6 referendums in Crimea about independence, federalisation or rejoining Russia since 1992.

East Ukraine however have repeatedly been forcible prevented from holding referendums in that direction, though they have only tried for federalisation up until recently.


gcomeau wrote:You may be confusing "complete personal autonomy" with "democracy". Being able to point at individuals who don't like their government is not the same thing as citing the democratically expressed will of the population.


No, but supporting those who prevents locals or regions from even attempting to "democratically express the will of the population", when 2 decades earlier, it was touted as a must be allowed in ex-Yugoslavia, that´s rather shitty and hypocritical.

gcomeau wrote:I'm pretty sure when you send the troops in FIRST, and then (in the case of Crimea at least) hold a "referendum" under armed guard that the UN doesn't recognize the legitimacy of while refusing to allow election monitors we're not talking about "democracy" again.


Well, Crimea voted for independence with even higher % even in the first referendum, 20 years ago, while Ukraine repeatedly used military force to prevent several attempts at voting itself out of Ukraine or try to force it to accept federalisation.

And really, the UN rejecting the legitimacy is pretty much a farce. Otherwise, ex-Yugoslavia was handled incorrectly and illegally, the 2003 invasion of Iraq was so illegal it´s beyond absurd(everyone already knows it was illegal) and should have generated a horde of prosecutions, and any number of "democratic" elections or referendums elsewhere that were accepted becomes pure silliness because they actually had less legitimacy.
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by Imaginos1892   » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:59 pm

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I would not be surprised to see civil war in France. All those moslems they've let in are going to keep trying to impose their "sharia law" and the French won't go for it.
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by SCC   » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:54 pm

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@Imaginos1892, well apart from your statement bordering on hate speech, I'm pretty sure it's wrong. The one that start problems are the ones in the Middle East and I think most of the ones in France and French
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Re: Current tensions in Europe escalating into full-out war
Post by Imaginos1892   » Wed Jul 08, 2015 11:10 pm

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There are already regions in several cities where the French police dare not attempt to enforce French law.
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